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Don't count out Alexandre Vinokourov even though the pre-race favorite crashed on Thursday's Stage 5, Garrett Lai writes.

Although we’re seeing some early flyers by riders like Michael Rasmussen, who’s clearly out to repeat his ownership of the climber’s jersey, it looks as though the Tour’s potential leaders are content to watch each other and wait for this week’s time trial to sort things out. This might be good for consistently strong guys like Vino, but could be disastrous for Levi, who seems to fold in the clutch. If he has a disastrous time trial like last year, the upcoming 54 km TT on Saturday could be his undoing.

Vino blew, with just kilometers to go in Sunday's stage, losing 30 seconds to Levi Leipheimer. And that’s interesting. Vino is an aggressive racer, a guy who’s known to take chances such as riding beyond redline. But if he blew, sitting in with the main bunch of favorites, that’s not a good sign for his chances at the overall. This could be a result of his crash earlier this week, which left him with a huge bruise on the backside — and that’s a vital muscle group for pedaling — but he might ride past it. Or it could be a sign of inadequate fitness. My guess is Tuesday’s stage, the last day in the Alps, will be a telling one.

Levi rode a smart race. He experienced a little drama descending the Roselend, when his chain got wrapped around the rear derailleur. His team car took some minutes to get to him with a spare bike, leaving him to coast on the descent in the meantime. It was a strung out field by that point, but Levi rode good tempo and got back up with Vino’s Astana boys who were pacing the field. And by doing that and staying within his limits he managed to pick up 30 seconds on pre-race favorite Vinokourov, when the Kazakh detonated and dropped from the bunch.

Monday’s a rest day, and you can bet there’s going to be some serious rethinking of team strategy given Sunday's events. Rogers is out. Vino isn’t as strong as we thought. Maybe. And Levi looks like he’s in good position, with good team support and a Discovery Channel squad that’s showing some signs of returning to its textbook form from the Lance era.

Sounds like something worth waking up for to watch live. I know I will be.