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Red Sox only team with a lock on postseason

AL East lead too large, but every other division has at least 2 contenders

Image: Red SoxAP
The Boston Red Sox are the only team that won't be fighting for its postseason life in August and September, writes MSNBC.com's Michael Ventre.

The National League is a bastion of mediocrity when compared to the American League. But as long as they still hold division races over there, we’re duty bound to examine them.

The Mets, Braves and Phillies are all vying for the NL East crown. Yet none of these teams seems World Series-worthy. After their showing in the postseason last year, expectations were high for the Mets. But they’ve been flat and inconsistent. On top of that, their best starter, John Maine, who has won 10 games this far, was passed over for the All-Star Game.

And neither the Braves nor the Phillies have shown the gumption to challenge the Mets’ measly 2.5-game lead on the division. If the Braves don’t get more out of Andruw Jones — the good news is the free agent-to-be has 54 RBI and 15 homers; the bad is that he’s hitting just .204 — they’ll likely fade in the Georgia humidity. Last year the Phillies went 45-30 in the second half, so maybe they’re counting on another such rally to contend in 2007.

Most likely, the Mets will win at the wire, then trip over it.

The relatively frugal Milwaukee Brewers hold a 4.5-game advantage in the NL Central over a team with a preposterously large payroll, the Chicago Cubs. Prince Fielder has 29 homers and trails Alex Rodriguez by one for the major league lead in that department.

Common sense would suggest that the Cubs’ high-priced talent should make the difference in the second half. Not so fast. The two clubs are fairly close in most statistical categories in the NL, including team ERA. The one major difference? Home runs. That score at the break is Milwaukee 124, Chicago 74. Thanks, Prince. And thanks to Prince and the Brewers, they’ll probably prevail for the division title over the corporate Cubs.

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Lastly, the race is on in the NL West.

The San Diego Padres, clinging to a 1.5-game lead, probably will hold off the Dodgers and Diamondbacks because of their outstanding pitching, led by Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Greg Maddux. The Dodgers seem like they should compete, but their top starters — Brad Penny and Derek Lowe — while having fine seasons thus far, likely will stumble through the second half. And the Diamondbacks have a shot, as long as they can discover the fountain of youth in the coming weeks. Randy Johnson, 43, is on the disabled list with back problems for the third time this season. Somebody get that man a heating pad.

Michael Ventre writes regularly for MSNBC.com and is a freelance writer in Los Angeles.


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