The winners of the Pick Four races paid $9, 4.80, 6.60 and 37.00, respectively. A straight $2 parlay would have returned $1,318. The winning $2 Pick Four paid $10,858, roughly 800 percent higher despite the fact the bet is offered in 50-cent denominations. Digest that for a moment.

Here’s another way of looking at the wager. Unlike betting to win, the parimutuel takeout, about 17 percent in many major jurisdictions, is extracted each time a win bet is placed. In inter-race wagers like the daily double or Pick Four, takeout is extracted once.

This makes the effective takeout rate on the Ellis Park Pick Four one percent per race. Now, if your handicapping is skilled enough to safely eliminate one 30-1 shot per race (on balance, a 30-1 has about a three percent chance to win), you have an expected positive return of two percent per race or eight percent for entire sequence. Think of it as free money.

Now how does that stack up against the 50 percent withheld by your state’s lottery?

Horseplayers must support this bet to send a message to an industry that only talks a good game. If 2,000 high-rolling off-shore bettors wagered only $200 into the Ellis Pick Four, daily handle on the bet would reach $400,000. If 20,000 $2-bettors wagered $20 into the pool whenever they went racing, potentially giving them 40 combinations at 50-cents each, we’re back at $400,000.

In the Pick Six pool at Hollywood Park last Monday, horseplayers spent $7.5 million chasing a $3.2 million carryover. The resulting $10.8 million Pick Six pool was the largest in North American history.

We’re not talking Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup here, just pedestrian week-day product. This total was amassed despite the much higher degree of difficulty, a 25 percent takeout, and a $2 minimum bet. Without a large bankroll, the majority of Pick Six players had little or no chance.

Not so the Pick Four, not now that one track is gambling that by making you happy and giving you a fair chance to beat the odds they can grow their own business. And send a message to the industry at the same time, that the horseplayer counts.

But unless bettors show that they really care and are willing to support a wager that gives them a real chance to win in the long term, horseplayers will have no one to blame but themselves.

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