Don Pierson

If the 3-13 Saints of 2005 had predicted 10 wins in 2006 under new coach Sean Payton, everybody would have laughed and then conceded Payton the coach-of-the-year trophy. After the Saints did win 10 games and Payton indeed was coach of the year, nobody laughed. They just wondered who's next.

The 3-13 Detroit Lions jumped to the front of the line, as quarterback Jon Kitna and others boldly predicted 10 wins in 2007. Pencil in second-year coach Rod Marinelli as coach of the year.

And what about the 2-14 Oakland Raiders? Can't they win 10 games, too, under new coach Lane Kiffin and rookie quarterback JaMarcus Russell?

And what about the 4-12 Cleveland Browns? Like the Raiders, they have a rookie quarterback in Brady Quinn. Can't they knock off the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals and jump from worst to first in the AFC North?

Let's not get carried away.

No doubt, there will be surprise teams this season. But there are realistic surprises and incredible surprises. The first kind are predictable, at least somewhat; the second only make soothsayers look foolish.

Five chances for breakthroughs
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They were 4-12 last year, but were only a year removed from 11-5. They went from first to worst in the NFC West, passing the Saints on the way down.

But coach Jon Gruden noticed what the Saints did. They signed a veteran quarterback, Drew Brees, who became the best in the NFC. Gruden took a look at what Jeff Garcia did for Philadelphia in the absence of Donovan McNabb and lured him to Tampa. The Bucs also traded for Denver's Jake Plummer, paying no attention to his intention to retire.

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These are signs of a team convinced it is ready to win now with the addition of a veteran quarterback and proven winner. Garcia rejuvenated his sagging career and figures to have at least one more shot at age 37. The Bucs also added veteran linemen in offensive left tackle Luke Petitgout and defensive tackle Kevin Carter and the leading tackler from the world champion Colts in linebacker Cato June. So desperate are the Bucs to win now that they even took a chance on Seattle's underachieving tight end Jerramy Stevens.

In veteran receiver Joey Galloway and linebacker Derrick Brooks, the Bucs have two more veterans on their last legs, ready for one more run. It looks like now or never for Gruden.

2. Miami Dolphins. They were 6-10 and followed the same formula as the Saints and Bucs. They added Chiefs' quarterback Trent Green, also 37, in hopes that his experience will help the Dolphins adapt quickly to the offense of new coach Cam Cameron. Call it the Indiana connection. Green and Cameron are both former Indiana University quarterbacks and Cameron formerly coach for the Hoosiers, though didn't overlap with Green.

The Dolphins had the league's fourth-ranked defense and defensive player of the year in Jason Taylor. Add Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter to that mix and the possibilities are enticing.

Cameron believes he significantly improved offensive team speed by drafting Ted Ginn and signing tight end David Martin. If the Dolphins can get an offensive line to jell, they have a chance to win.

3. Arizona Cardinals. Don't laugh yet. It's all about the quarterbacks and they don't necessarily have to be old. Matt Leinart was good as a rookie and should get better as soon as Ken Whisenhunt and line coach Russ Grimm manufacture a new offensive line. The Cards were 5-11 last year and underachieved the entire way.

Leinart has the receivers in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald and the running back Edgerrin James. The defense remains suspect but hardly anybody plays defense in the NFC West anyway. If Leinart continues to blossom, he has a chance to pass up other young quarterbacks Alex Smith in San Francisco and Marc Bulger in St. Louis as challengers to Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck in an NFC West division that was the tightest from top to bottom in all of football last season.

4. Washington Redskins. Joe Gibbs always has something up his sleeve and is unaccustomed to back-to-back losing seasons. He dropped from 10-6 in 2005 to 5-11 last year, but has high hopes for quarterback Jason Campbell, who started the last seven games last season and showed enough promise for Redskin backers to get excited.

A look at the NFC East reveals no dominant quarterback unless Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb can stay healthy and right his career. The Redskins figure Campbell isn't that far behind New York's Eli Manning or Dallas's Tony Romo and the defense cannot possibly be as bad as it was last season, when it fell from ninth to 31st. Adding veteran linebacker London Fletcher-Baker and top rookie safety LaRon Landry to fortify the middle should correct the flaws.

Gibbs already has two proven weapons in receiver Santana Moss and running back Clinton Portis, whose health is crucial.

5. Detroit Lions. In the NFC North, anything is possible, including taking the Lions seriously. They certainly have skilled players on both sides of the ball and shouldn't even have to win 10 games to compete with Green Bay and Minnesota in chasing Chicago.

If defensive tackle Shaun Rogers and receiver Roy Williams decide it's time to bring that University of Texas pride north, the Lions could finally rid themselves of their reputation as the worst team in football, with only 24 wins in the last six years.

Marinelli has worked hard at instilling the proper work ethic, not easy in a group with so little positive history. Sooner or later, however, the law of averages applies to everybody.     

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