Garrett Lai

As a country, the United States has never been a cycling powerhouse. When America shines at the Tour de France it’s not because of a tremendous depth of talent, but rather a singular, exceptionally gifted individual — Lance Armstrong, Floyd Landis and Greg Lemond, who blazed the trail for every aspiring bike racer in the U.S.

Bike racing is a fringe sport here, unable to escape the long shadow of the ball sports — baseball, basketball and football. It can't even eclipse bowling for participation, or poker for a fan base. Like track and field, cycling only grabs the spotlight when we win. And right now, it doesn’t look like we have one. In fact, as of this writing the official victor for last year’s Tour has yet to be named, as Landis continues his courtroom battle to keep the maillot jaune.

We’ve been spoiled for the past eight years, with Lance sweeping seven straight Tours and Floyd’s incredible (but possibly tainted) ride in ’06. For a brief spell we not only fielded winners, but a fair number of riders with decent shots at the crown. We were, briefly, a national force. Which makes this year’s Tour a somewhat bitter reality check for America, as the number of Americans to toe the start line will probably number a mere half-dozen. Even so, we’re likely to see some Americans in the spotlight.

Levi Leipheimer, Discovery Channel
Although he was pretty mum at the time, Levi couldn’t have been a happy camper when Discovery Channel signed Italian stage racing star Ivan Basso, the man Lance Armstrong pegged as the most likely winner of le Tour after his retirement. But with Basso out of the game due to his entanglement with Spain’s anti-doping Operacion Puerto, there’s an American at the helm of America’s team.

Levi had a strong early season this year, winning the Tour of California. And he’s a strong stage racer, having won the seven-stage Dauphine Libere race last year, Lance’s favorite pre-Tour warmup. With Discovery Channel backing him this year he’ll have more powerful backup than he enjoyed with his previous squad.

But while Leipheimer is a strong rider, he tends to fail in the clutch. He had a good shot at repeating his Dauphine victory this year, but put himself into a solo crash on the last stage. At last year’s Tour he failed miserably in the time trial. And the year prior, on the last day of the Tour with three teammates pulling him he couldn’t beat Alexandre Vinokourov in a sprint, giving the Kazakh rider enough points to leapfrog him to fifth place overall.

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Discovery was the most dominant team at the Tour during Lance’s seven-win run, but last year they failed to show the same depth and tactics that kept Lance in the maillot jaune. If they can recover their lost form Levi could have the most powerful team in the peloton, and that’s a serious ace in the hole. That might be enough. Maybe.

David Zabriskie, CSC
Zabriskie continues to be a promising young rider. At 28, he’s still maturing as a racer. But while he’s an exceptionally powerful cyclist, one of just three people to best Armstrong in a Tour de France time trial during the Lance era, he has yet to evolve into a climber. And that’s a weakness that’s too easy to exploit.

Alessandro Trovati / AP file David Zabriskie, 28, is one of only three people to best Armstrong in a Tour de France time trial.

Ever since Miguel Indurain won his first Tour, in 1991, the formula for winning has been simple: Dominate the time trials and hold position in the mountains. It’s a strategy that was absolutely perfected by Lance and his Blue Train (named for the predominantly blue jerseys of Discovery and the U.S. Postal Service).

Zabriskie is well-suited to the short, technical challenge of London’s prologue course. It’s a mere 4.9 miles (7.9 km), a lung-searing drag race that could see Zabriskie in yellow. And because CSC will probably adopt the same wait-and-see leadership strategy it has in years past, if Zabriskie looks strong enough to have the goods he could be thrust into the leadership role. That would put him at the heading of what has been, traditionally, the most tactically flawless team to contest the Tour in the past decade. Which may see him in yellow, for a spell. But all the way to Paris? Unlikely—he’ll lose too much time in the mountains.

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