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Kahne pick to prevail at Michigan

Evernham driver shooting to be repeat winner at two-mile oval

Image: Kasey KahneAP
Kasey Kahne, driver of the No. 9 Dodge of Ray Evernham Motorsports, has been coming on of late, and should make a strong bid to win Sunday's Nextel Cup event at Michigan International Speedway for the second consecutive year, writes Johnny Benson of MSNBC.com.

Denny Hamlin had the car to beat last weekend at Pocono Raceway, where he led for 49 laps but was in sixth place when the race was called due to rain on Lap 106. Hamlin hopes for better luck at Michigan, where he's making just his third Cup start with previous finishes of ninth last August and 12th in this event last June.

Other drivers to keep an eye on include Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and Kevin Harvick. Newman's been one of the hottest drivers on the Cup circuit over the past month.

My darkhorse -- if he qualifies in the No. 83 Toyota of Team Red Bull -- is Brian Vickers. He has a pair of top-10s in six Michigan starts.

Keys to success at Michigan
To run this track and to run it well a driver needs a lot of experience. That experience translates to the ability to find more grip -- if needed -- on this very wide track. This is a track where drivers can run two and even three distinct grooves. With the multiple grooves there is a lot of room for drivers to move around and make some exciting passes.

If a driver can't get his car to grip on the bottom of the track, he can try to run in the middle or run high. And drivers like Kasey Kahne, who have reputations for going to the top of tracks, will likely look to run up high at Michigan. But the real key is which drivers will have the cars that run well at the bottom of the track for the majority of the race because those cars will be the ones to beat.

With a wide track offering a lot of room to run and to pass, races at Michigan are usually pretty clean. Managing fuel is always a major challenge, and engine tuning is the most critical factor in getting maximum fuel mileage. Drivers have to be extremely conscious that races at Michigan have most often been decided by fuel mileage so they have to be very careful of how they run the throttle. Crew chiefs will be under greater pressure to make the right calls with fuel mileage such a key factor.

Finally, there's a long pit road at Michigan so I expect some drivers will be penalized for speeding, especially under green-flag pit stops.

© 2012 MSNBC Interactive


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