Slim hope for Federer on red clay
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Wanting it too badly
Federer was trying too hard to get into the points against Nadal, which caused him to make too many mistakes, such as way too many errors off of his forehand. Overall Federer had 59 unforced errors to 27 for Nadal. Federer's forehand was not dominating but instead was misfiring. Now that's saying something. Of course, the opponent being Nadal might indeed have had a lot to do with that.
Federer converted only one of 17 break-point opportunities in his bid to topple Nadal for a second time this spring. He could have been pressing too hard since besides winning the French Open title, he also had on the line his bid for a non-calendar year Grand Slam and a calendar-year Grand Slam. Federer won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open in 2006 and the Australian Open earlier this year.
Playing Nadal on clay requires patience, but eventually anyone would run out of patience with the way Nadal takes to dirt. The truth is that on many occasions in his latest attempt to nuke Nadal, Federer was hitting some fantastic shots, shots that would have been winners against anyone else in the game. But against Nadal they just weren’t good enough and that’s frustrating. Federer also made a mistake in trying to return Nadal’s serve -- which is not very hard -- from too far behind the baseline.
The tournament in Hamburg is played in a best-of-three set format as opposed to the best-of-five set format at Roland Garros and as we’ve seen that makes for a very different challenge to the players. The Hamburg loss to Federer was perhaps a brief sign of fatigue by Nadal (maybe he had been playing too much tennis), but he was not going to let that happen in Paris. His strength helps pull him through the red-clay rallies, no matter how long they are and how potentially taxing they can be. Nadal is not weakened by them. In fact, he uses them to reaffirm to his opponent his superiority on the dirt.
A two-man show at the majors
Federer and Nadal have seized all the momentum at the majors, combining to win the last nine played. The last man not named Federer or Nadal to capture a major was Marat Safin, who took the 2005 Australian Open title. The player who has the best chance to break the Federer-Nadal stranglehold at the majors is Novak Djokovic -- he prefers the hard courts, is a well-rounded player, and is strong and talented.
Safin is also someone who should be able to take a crack at stopping the steamrollering Swiss and Spanish stars. Safin has the talent, but too often he seems to be living in a fantasy world. As for U.S. hopes, I can’t say Andy Roddick, who won the U.S. Open in 2003, is ready to pull off such a feat for a second time. When Roddick won his only major Federer was not the total king of the sport he has become over the last several years. It was an opening for Roddick and he made the most of it. Such openings no longer exist.
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Nadal's definitely more than just a threat at Roland Garros, his home away from home. He came close to winning Wimbledon last year falling in the final to Federer, whom he has beaten in eight of 12 matches on all surfaces combined. If he had held on to win that third set against Federer in the grasscourt major last summer, he might have done the deed at the All-England club.
And I believe Nadal is a threat to win the U.S. Open. He's played it four times and with each visit to New York he has improved his showing. Last year he made the quarterfinals. This year it's an even more promising outlook for him on the hardcourts. Nadal just has too much going for him not to prosper on surfaces other than dirt. Given that, and given Federer's domination on all courts not Paris, the other players on the men's tour sure have their work cut out for them at the majors.
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