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PARIS - The battle for the French Open men's singles title has come down to the two players most thought would meet in Sunday's final: top-seeded Roger Federer and second-seeded Rafael Nadal.
No surprise in that, but watch for a surprise outcome to the match. I admit I showed up in Paris with Nadal on the tip of my tongue as the guy I and many others were touting to win this major for a third straight time. But I now see it differently. It will be Federer who walks off the red clay as champion.
Solving the Duke of Dirt
Nadal has beaten Federer the last two years at Roland Garros. He conquered the world No. 1 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the 2005 semifinals, and in last year's final, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6 (7-4). Nadal is Mr. Clay Court, for sure, but Federer beat him 2-6, 6-2, 6-0 in the Hamburg clay-court final a few weeks ago. It was indeed a feat on clay for Federer, who was 0-5 against Nadal on the surface. It also was an extremely impressive feat as it snapped Nadal's record 81-match winning streak on clay.
In his Hamburg win over Nadal Federer figured out some important things about getting the better of the Spaniard on dirt. He cannily waited for the right moment to dash to the net for winning volleys, played calmly (after overhitting at first), and set up his deadly forehand. That's what the coach he recently banished, Tony Roche, wanted him to do.
As part of his strategy on Sunday Federer will need to effectively attack Nadal as he did in the first set of their meeting here last year. He'll also need to keep doing what's working throughout the whole match and guard against getting away from it after a set or two.
As great as he was Pete Sampras was 0-for-13 in his quest to win the French Open. But clay isn't the mystery to Federer it was to Sampras. Federer grew up on it. He knows how to slide and defend, and he knows how to handle the topspinning high bounces. However, Nadal's rollers, higher to the backhand are killers as Federer learned some time ago.
A lot at stake
Federer has a non-calendar-year Grand Slam at stake since he arrived at Roland Garros having won the last three majors: the 2006 Wimbledon, the 2006 U.S. Open, and this year's Australian Open. Only five men have ever earned a career Grand Slam -- Andre Agassi, Don Budge, Roy Emerson, Rod Laver and Fred Perry -- and Federer would very much like to join that elite group.
And let’s not forget if the Swiss star can defeat Nadal for his first French Open title, he'll keep alive his bid for a calendar-year Grand Slam. Such a feat has not been accomplished by a man since Rod Laver pulled it off in 1969.
If Federer can leave Paris with trophy in hand his pursuit of the calendar-year Grand Slam will become even bigger news as he'll be headed to his favorite surfaces -- the grass at Wimbledon where he is the four-time defending champion, and the hard courts at the U.S. Open where he is the three-time defending champion.
Nadal is looking for his own piece of history on Sunday when he could become the first man since Bjorn Borg to win three consecutive French Open titles. Nadal has never lost a match at Roland Garros (he's 20-0) so you can see why he considers Paris his home away from home.
As you’ll see in my breakdown of their games, it's a tough outcome to call. While my head gives the nod to the Spaniard there's something in my gut that makes me feel Federer will prevail this time around.
Serve: Federer has the better serve, primarily because he’s better at placing his serves. Power is certainly an advantage on the serve, but as the really good players know, placement can be way more important than power. Nadal is very strong and he comes up with some big serves and has improved in this aspect of his game, but Federer's ability to place his serve still wins out.
Edge: Federer
The United States completed a 5-0 rout of Switzerland in the Davis Cup on Sunday, with 19-year-old Ryan Harrison and John Isner winning closing singles matches.
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Zambia has won the African Cup of Nations, beating pre-tournament favorite Ivory Coast 8-7 on penalties in a dramatic final at Stade de l'Amitie.
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