It's easy to imagine a power shift based on upcoming lottery luck. The Blazers can immediately become contenders-in-waiting with the No. 1 pick. Most presume that will be Oden. Durant is a heck of a consolation prize for the Sonics, though — he's a 6-10 wing who runs the floor like a guard and has 3-point range.

"Oden is a franchise-changer, like Duncan was," Dee Brown says. "I like Durant, but if the Celtics get the No. 1 pick, they put Oden with the young guys they have, that changes the division. It changes the whole Eastern Conference."

But not everyone feels so strongly about the necessity to win in this lottery — it's a deep draft beyond Oden and Durant. Marty Blake, who runs the league's scouting service, would hardly throw himself off a bridge with a run-of-the-mill lottery pick. Big men, usually rare at draft time, are plentiful. The top candidates to be the No. 3 pick are all pure power forwards, 6-9 and taller: North Carolina's Brandan Wright, Florida's Al Horford and China's Yi Jianlian. "You'd love to have one of the first two guys," Blake says. "But if you're picking 10, 12, 14, wherever, you have a chance to get a very good player."

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True, but the Celtics thought they were getting a couple of very good players in '97. And, in the NBA, the difference between drafting a very good player and a great one is the difference between multiple championships (Duncan and the Spurs) and a few years of failure before a resignation (Pitino and the Celtics). "It's amazing, isn't it, how fragile this business can be?" Williams says.

"You are relying on the magic of pingpong balls. Just regular pingpong balls, like any other at the pingpong ball factory. And they're deciding everything. What a way to make a living."

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