It’s impossible to say whether the trouble cost Great Hunter the victory, but it seems clear that if he hadn’t been forced to check he would have been in the thick of the blanket finish that included Street Sense, Zanjero and Teuflesberg.

But as a result of his off-the-board finish, he is 15-1 in the Derby morning line instead of the 5-1 or so that he would have been if he had he finished on even terms with Street Sense, who is the second choice in the race at 4-1.

And the odds could go even higher as a result of his lousy post position draw on the far outside.

But that factor isn’t as troubling as it would be if Great Hunter were a speed horse. Because the colt prefers to run toward the rear of the pack in the early going, Nakatani will have the length of the Churchill Downs stretch to find a soft spot and avoid getting the colt hung out to dry on the first turn. Assuming he can do that, the outside post could even be a positive, as it should allow him to avoid the sort of trouble that often comes calling on horses drawn toward the inside as the pack tightens up approaching the turn.

As for the two-prep schedule, O’Neill has expressed confidence this week that he has Great Hunter just where he wants him in terms of physical fitness and said that he expects the colt to bring his “A” race on Saturday.

Given that Great Hunter and Liquidity, another Reddam-owned colt in the field, are O’Neill’s first Derby starters, that could be considered chutzpah. But O’Neill has established himself as one of the top trainers in Southern California in the last few years, and has proven that he’s capable of getting his charges ready for big races through his handling of top older horse Lava Man.

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My bottom line is that no matter how poor the draw, Great Hunter offers the best value in the field for a horse that has a serious chance of winning.

In betting this race, I’m going to use most of my bankroll shooting for a big score. I’ll bet $20 to win on Great Hunter, then use him in four different $1 trifecta boxes:

• With Street Sense, Circular Quay and Hard Spun.
• With Street Sense, Circular Quay and Any Given Saturday.
• With Street Sense, Circular Quay and Nobiz Like Shobiz.
• With Street Sense, Scat Daddy and Tiago.

Finally, I’ll box Great Hunter and Street Sense in a $2 exacta box.

That works out to a total bet of $120, with a potential reward of several thousand dollars if I’m right.

As mentioned earlier this week, I’m going to take a stand against 7-2 morning like favorite Curlin, who I believe is vulnerable despite his considerable talents because he has never encountered adversity in his brief career.

Needless to say, I like a horse who has, and has shown a willingness to battle through it.

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