No. 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz (8-1): Talented colt has been somewhat victimized by his own early success. He made such a favorable impression at 2 that he was atop most everyone’s early Derby list, mine included. But he hasn’t developed much in terms of performance figures. The blinkers and cotton in his ears to muffle distractions did their job and he won the Wood Memorial. His Equiform figures did move forward in the Wood, portending another developmental move here. But was it and is it enough? With a high cruising speed, a strong Derby pace would help his focus and serve to make him more comfortable during the running. But will he revert to his drifting ways when confronted by the Derby’s “wall of noise” at headstretch? Still, a serious contender. Nicely drawn.

No. 13 Sam P. (20-1): Was out of his element finding himself on the lead in the Santa Anita Derby, not his preferred style, following a good-rally placing to Great Hunter in the Robert B. Lewis Memorial. He has an affinity for Churchill, having won there at 2, and retains the great Ramon Dominguez. Even with improvement, however, he remains a cut below top class.

No. 14 Scat Daddy (10-1): The most accomplished of the Pletcher runners, he is the field’s lone two-time Grade 1 winner. He had a great winter at Gulfstream Park, winning the Florida Derby, the race that launched Barbaro last year. His speed figures at not in the upper ranges here but all he does is win. In the Florida Derby, a review of the tape will show the very useful Notional made a strong, well-timed rally but that Scat Daddy remained in full stride right to the line and could have gone around again if needed. Showing a brilliant recent workout, he retains Edgar Prado, Barbaro’s partner. Karma, anyone? Yet another worthy contender despite training in a bar shoe. Perfect post.

No. 1 Sedgefield (50-1): Second to Hard Spun in the well-graded Lanes End, he must demonstrate he’s more than a Polytrack/Turf specialist. Say this about Turfway‘s Polytrack surface: it plays a lot more honestly than Keeneland’s. Might be better than generally rated and potentially offers much more value that Blue Grass winning mate but, still, a very tall order.

No. 4 Storm In May (30-1): Has shown nothing to indicate he wants to go 10 furlongs on dirt at this level. Should sit this dance out.

No. 17 Stormello (30-1): The quality speed of the Derby 133 speed. Winner of the Grade 2 Norfolk in his two-turn debut at Oak Tree-Santa Anita, he concluded his juvenile campaign with a Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity score. He ran Scat Daddy to a nose in the Fountain of Youth, his three-year-old debut, but did not have the same energy when he crossed the country a second time. Fresh now, he’s working great and is very fast. All he lacks is a true distance pedigree. He should run very well for as long as he can, especially if left alone on the lead. That’s a big if, the draw hurt.

No. 7 Street Sense (4-1): The two year-old champion and Derby-winning trainer Carl Nafzger need no introduction. He will have only two preps prior to the biggest race of his life but what preps they were. He gave fast and fitter Any Given Saturday all he wanted in the Tampa Bay Derby before coming back to lose by a nose when Polytracked in the Blue Grass. We believe those two efforts and two excellent workouts will be enough to achieve the proper level of fitness to win Derby 133. No Derby colt loves the Churchill surface more than this one. And he has a better turn of foot and more athleticism than many observers think. Beat him, and you wear roses.

No. 10 Teuflesberg (30-1): The “Iron Horse” of Derby 133, he is the first horse in 33 years to be heavily raced at 2 and still make it into the Derby starting gate. Part owner/trainer Jamie Sanders was Nick Zito’s former top exercise rider so she’s been around good horses and this scene for over a decade. Teuflesberg is a speed horse, and that doesn’t augur well given the presence of Stormello, not to mention the “heavy heads” of this group.

No. 15 Tiago (15-1): Fairytales can come true, it can happen to you, if you bet this long-winded late developer. We don’t believe this year’s Santa Anita Derby was anywhere near its best renewal but we’ll give props to the colt that can finish in front for the first time in its career in a Grade 1 event. From the owner, trainer and jockey that gave the world Giacomo, a Tiago win would be even more stunning considering the class of this crop. Equipment changes have helped and he has worked strongly since the SA Derby. But how many times can lightning strike? I expect that he’ll run well, just not well enough.

No. 3 Zanjero (30-1): Might be the most disrespected colt in the field. In his last four starts, he was beaten a total of 14 ½ lengths over 34 ½ furlongs by the likes of Nobiz Like Shobiz, Notional, Circular Quay and Dominican. Finished third by a head in the Blue Grass, the good news and bad news being that he saved all the ground at outside-favoring Keeneland. He can stalk from close range or come from the clouds only he hasn’t done it fast enough. On his very best, a puncher’s chance to complete the superfecta.

Most Probable Winner: Street Sense (fair odds 4-1).

Derby Dark Horse: Circular Quay (fair odds 10-1).

Best Value: Hard Spun (12-1 or greater).

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