Skip navigation

Best field since '87 means great betting

Street Sense looks best, but we haven't seen group like this in decades

Slide show
Eric Williams
Derby daze
Images of racehorses, their handlers, the Queen and spectators and their creative hats.

more photos

Video
  Filly wins Preakness thriller
Rachel Alexandra holds off Derby winner Mine That Bird to become first female to win race since 1924.

NBC Sports

Video
  Preakness Overhead Cam
May 16: Watch Rachel Alexandra hold off Mine That Bird on the overhead cam.

NBC Sports

Slide show
Image: AEK Athens' Nemeth reacts after a Europa League soccer match against BATE Borisov in Athens
  Week in Sports Pictures
Flying on the hardwood, racing on the rink, getting physical on the gridiron, and much more.

more photos

KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
By John Pricci
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 5:14 p.m. ET May 4, 2007

John Pricci
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. - Even if it weren’t “America’s Race,” this is one Kentucky Derby not to miss. Not in two decades has this storied mile and-a-quarter come replete with this kind of talent. And it’s deep, too.

One would have to time-travel back to 1987, a Derby starting gate that included Alysheba, Gulch, Cryptoclearance and Bet Twice to find one comparable. Throw in Capote, a breeding-shed star, and you have an idea of how good this class could be. For starters, all the money finishers from the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile are having back at it, over the same racetrack.

Street Sense, Curlin, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Hard Spun and two from the Todd Pletcher quintet, Circular Quay and Scat Daddy, could easily match the talented class of ‘87. And, so, with great anticipation, an examination of the field for Derby 133, in alphabetical order, with post position and early-line odds in parentheses:

Story continues below ↓
advertisement | your ad here

No. 18 Any Given Saturday (12-1): He has a million-dollar pedigree, literally, and has been the consensus training star among the Todd Squad runners. Pletcher’s audible, to run in the Wood Memorial instead of the Blue Grass, is paying dividends now. He finished like a tired colt in the Wood following his Tampa Derby exertions but now has a high energy level according to his trainer, the three-time defending Eclipse champion. Garrett Gomez, arguably this country’s best race-rider and certain future Hall of Famer, gets aboard for the first time. A worthy contender but the draw hurts.

No. 11 Bwana Bull (50-1): Took a most unusual route to the Big Dance. He was scratched from the Derby Trial Stakes on Saturday due to lingering effects of antibiotics to treat an infection and winds up in the big one. From the prolific shed of Northern California ace Jerry Hollendorfer, he was fifth in Tiago’s Santa Anita Derby following a G3 win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. Historically, that’s been a good Preakness prep. So what’s he doing here?

No. 16 Circular Quay (8-1):
The knocks are well documented; no race in eight weeks and no race beyond a mile and-a-sixteenth. But note his qualities; His only defeat in three starts over the Churchill surface came courtesy of a track-biased placing to Street Sense in the Juvenile. He finishes explosively and did win the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga off an eight-week layup last year. He is the colt first-call rider John Velazquez and agent Angel Cordero Jr. chose to partner. Along with Curlin, he may be the field’s best athlete despite his dawdling in the early stages of a race. A serious contender.

No. 6 Cowtown Cat (20-1):
The “now” colt of the Pletcher quints, he really blossomed in the Illinois Derby. Yes, he set a moderate early pace but exploded into a good final time, winning in full stride as if today’s added ground is what he wants badly. Versatile, he has proven he’s not a need-the-lead type. He’s worked brilliantly since the Hawthorne race and has a young rider that has stepped up his game to meet the biggest challenges. Name the last 19-year-old not named Fernando Jara to win the Belmont Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup within a 10-month span? Live longshot.

No. 2 Curlin (7-2): Simply no telling how good this colt is. Undefeated in three lifetime starts, his winning margins total 28-½ lengths and he does it with brilliant dominant speed, winning with some reserves in the equine tank. His gifts are his carriage and gait, a running style with no wasted motion and owning extreme push-button acceleration. His lack of racing foundation at 2 and a three-race campaign work against him in this extremely enervating test. He might be a great one. He would have to be to defeat this group given those qualifiers. Obvious contender, nonetheless.

No. 19 Dominican (20-1):
Much has been made of the fact he’s undefeated on artificial surfaces and winless on traditional dirt. These are valid issues but he just might be developing at the right time, too. Three-year-olds in the spring grow from young boys into precocious older teenagers. He owns pedigree for the distance and is undefeated beneath the talented Rafael Bejarano. Grade 1 Blue Grass winner very likely to run his race, but a minor award remains the most optimistic call.

No. 20 Great Hunter (15-1): Showed much promise as a juvenile winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland but should have finished second in Street Sense’s Juvenile despite some first-turn troubles. Given a two-prep campaign by trainer Doug O’Neill, he was disappointingly flat in the Blue Gras before the stretch incident eliminated any chance he had to win. Comes into the Derby not as advanced as required for such a demanding test but has pedigree and body type for this arduous trip. On his very best, a money finish only from extreme outside.

No. 8 Hard Spun (15-1):
Could be the value of Derby 133. If not for a flat effort in the Southwest Stakes over an Oaklawn Park surface that broke away under foot, he could be undefeated in six career starts. He has the same running style and gifted speed as Curlin and will be almost three times the price. He worked brilliantly at Churchill Downs following a previous one-mile workout designed to get him tired and attain the proper level of fitness. His talented trainer flies a bit under the radar and is bred, as racetrackers say, “to run up the side of a mountain.” His :57 3/5 work was the fastest Derby week work in 34 years, since Forego in 1973. A tricky read, but a serious racehorse.

No. 5 Imawildandcrazyguy (50-1): In recent starts he’s finished close to Scat Daddy, Circular Quay and Notional without threatening. To repeat, he’s finished close…. without threatening.

No. 9 Liquidity (30-1): Hopes were high for O’Neill trainee after two consecutive runner-up efforts behind G1 winning Stormello and very highly regarded Ravel in the G3 Sham Stakes. He can be forgiven for fading after chasing the pace in Circular Quay’s Arkansas Derby but not for his disappointing try as one of the Santa Anita Derby choices. Stalking style places him between rocks and hard places in this match-up. Note that recent equipment changes have helped to advance his training.


Sponsored links