If trainer Bill Currin has his way, it won’t be multiple-Grade 1 pace-setting Stormello. Currin doesn’t want him on the lead. He wants him back off the early pace. Instead of tiring on the pace like he did in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, he wants Stormello to have a target to run at. But that probably won’t happen, for several good reasons.

For one, Stormello may not take to rating, instead fighting his jockey and becoming a run-off. And Currin might be blowing pace smoke, having no intention to take back, but hoping to trick his rivals into employing rating tactics, thereby allowing Stormello a relatively easy lead. It’s trainer trash talk.

Further, given that the average winning distance of the offspring of Stormello’s sire and grandsire is 6.4 and 6.5 furlongs, respectively, Currin might not have the luxury of taking back. Besides, it’s not considered wise to take a horse out of its best game before the biggest race of its life.

If not Stormello, then who? That’s the tougher question. While I have my favorites, it would not be a shock to see any one of nine different horses draped with roses. Hard Spun has Stormello-type speed if he wants to use it. So does Curlin. It is unlikely either will. They would prefer to stalk the early pace from close range.

So, too, would Any Given Saturday and Nobiz Like Shobiz and Cowtown Cat, among others. The problem is five horses can’t occupy the same space. There could be even more battling for the sweet spot if they show any of the quickness they demonstrated as two-year-olds; Scat Daddy and — hold on to your julep cups — Street Sense! Of course, these two have long since learned to distribute their energy more efficiently. It’s called development. But useful to know the speed is there.

Perhaps the best way to assess pace in this Derby is to examine, through a class prism, the ability of the eventual Derby winner to run at a sustained pace throughout a two-turn race, the suitability of pedigree notwithstanding. Those best able to sustain a strongly run pace throughout a two-turn race are, in no particular order; Nobiz Like Shobiz, Hard Spun and Scat Daddy.

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