The Derby question is how do Derby handicappers reconcile the Blue Grass fractions and race shape on a surface fast enough to produce a world record clocking for juveniles at four and a half furlongs 48 hours earlier and times recorded by juvenile under-tack sales horses in :20 1/5 for a quarter mile and a furlong in :09 3/5 earlier that week? The answer is you can’t, so you don’t try.

There is sufficient empirical evidence to suggest that having a morbidly slow Polytrack run does not adversely effect horses moving back to conventional dirt, no matter how fast that playing field. One only needs consider how well Cushion Track-trained horses performed at Santa Anita and elsewhere, or the success enjoyed by Woodbine invaders this winter at Gulfstream Park. Anecdotally, many won at first asking instead of needing the usual race over the track.

Specifically, the colts that ran 1-3 in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland finished 1-3 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, albeit in reverse order. Interesting to note, too, that Circular Quay split Great Hunter and Street on both occasions. Apparently, Keeneland goes into Churchill very nicely, indeed.

This is the only instance when the racetrack adage of time only counting when in jail may be accurate. Revisiting the Breeders’ Futurity, Great Hunter’s mile and a sixteenth was clocked in 1:44. Street Sense needed only 1:42 2/5 to win the Juvenile. According to Equiform’s data base, Street Sense earned the best performance figure by a juvenile since Easy Goer dominated the 1988 Champagne Stakes. Parenthetically, performance figures quantify and qualify running time measured against the speed of a track’s surface.

In a circuitous fashion, this brings us to Curlin. Over an Oaklawn Park surface slower than par, Curlin’s 10-½ length Arkansas Derby romp was the fastest figure earned by a three-year-old this year in a two-turn distance by a significant margin. His nine-furlong figure was one point faster than Circular Quay’s mile and a sixteenth Louisiana Derby victory, or roughly less than 2-¼ lengths. Those were the best figures earned over a distance of ground by a three-year-old this year.

Running times are the game’s only absolute truth. Speed figures are an effective measure of those times, even if many believe their certitude exists only in the eyes of their creators. Rather, it is assessing thoroughbred performance through a visual prism that truly is the subjective exercise.

But what we have seen from Curlin has been extraordinary: Athletically he is nearly perfect. He carries his head low, seemingly in perfect relation to his running action. He is so economical and push-button paced that he appears to glide over the ground. In his last race he showed none of the drifting-out greenness demonstrated in his previous two starts. Could he be learning this quickly, be this good?

Historical context is a subject for another day. Meanwhile, Curlin’s Arkansas Derby figure was a point lower than Street Sense’s Juvenile. Curlin is lightly raced and celebrates his true birthday 30 days later than Street Sense. But the Street Sense figure was earned as a late-season two-year-old, thus he has a higher figure to return to on his best effort. The only question now is whether his a Polytrack prep helps get him back there.

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