John Pricci

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. -

When turf writers for such national journals as the New York Times, Washington Post and USA Today question the efficacy of last weekend’s Blue Grass Stakes results as a predictor of Kentucky Derby form, Polytrack advocates may have a problem.

Horsemen, handicappers and journalists everywhere have tried to get a handle on Dominican’s Blue Grass victory and what it will mean three weeks hence. And who could blame them? How does anyone know how to interpret splits of :26, :25 2/5, :25 1/5, :24 3/5, with a final furlong in :11 2/5?

The old inside-speed highway at Keeneland Race Course has produced 22 Derby winners from the storied Blue Grass. Based on those numbers, this nine-furlong fixture has been the best way to arrive in Louisville and depart with a few red roses from the winner’s blanket to be pressed forever between the pages of Derby history.

Like any worthwhile academic exercise, interpretation of Polytrack data compiled from results posted at the new Keeneland needs historical context. But know that the first meet on the new surface was last fall and frontrunners went 1-for-48. Or, as three-time defending Eclipse champion trainer Todd Pletcher noted: “It looks like they replaced one bias with another.”

Pletcher, of course, is correct. He believes that in a perfect world training is done or artificial surfaces and racing on conventional dirt. In Great Britain, where artificial surfaces have been in vogue much longer, noted European author and professional horseplayer Nick Mordin shared this opinion:

“[Artificial surfaces] erode the difference between horse race betting and other forms of gambling. Races are harder to predict and are unquestionably more competitive. When you’re betting on a horse you hope that it has a significant edge. Polytrack denies you that. The surface has reduced betting almost to the level of a lottery.”

Last weekend bettors believed they had a significant edge backing Breeders’ Futurity winner Great Hunter over favorite Blue Grass favorite Street Sense. Great Hunter beat Street Sense last fall, so why not again? Instead, it was Dominican that would remain undefeated in three career Polytrack starts.

Of course, the Kentucky Derby will be run on a conventional dirt track, one that gets faster as Derby Week progresses and is close to superhighway-fast by May’s first Saturday. What to do?

The benefits of artificial dirt surfaces such as Polytrack should be noted. It’s vertical drainage system virtually eliminates treacherous sloppy or muddy track conditions, carrying water down and away from the surface. Although Polytrack has been adversely effected by extreme cold and breakdowns over Turfway Park’s Polytrack increased at the winter/spring meet, Polytrack has proven to be a safer surface.

There are other benefits, too. Faster recovery time between starts, fewer scratches that help maintain field size and thereby the bottom line, and a greater incentive for turf horses to remain in rescheduled grass races is not inconsequential. All this and the unqualified success of turf-bred specialists racing on the new artificial surfaces.

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