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Spurs, not Mavs, primed to win title

San Antonio has toughness, defense to return to top

Image: Tony ParkerAP
This time, Tony Parker and the Spurs will get past Dallas, writes columnist Sam Smith.

Cuban does make things entertaining at times, like last year with his criticisms of the water at San Antonio's riverwalk. But you also get the feeling this Dallas team is haunted by that Finals collapse. OK, it's more than a feeling as they refer to it all the time. I think it's had a lot to do with this season of proving themselves and not laying off the pedal all season. I think that's going to have an effect as the playoffs march on, and you get the sense watching the Mavs in recent days — although they've now clinched the No. 1 seed and there is nothing to play for and it's difficult to be at a high level under those circumstances — that there's a little edge missing.

Sure, the playoffs bring that back, but the difference in the Mavs isn't Dirk Nowitzki, who should win MVP. It's defense and being driven by Avery Johnson, and we know Dirk isn't exactly the inspiration for the defense. The Mavs defend way better than anyone ever imagined they could under Don Nelson, though actually practicing on occasion apparently helps. But the Spurs were built on defense for the last decade.

I thought Popovich erred last season in the playoffs when he allowed the Mavs to lure him into a smaller game and he stopped using some of his big men. But the Spurs did get to Game 7 and should have won.

What we saw was that the Spurs could play the Mavs' game and have success. The Mavs can't play the Spurs game with the likes of Erick Dampier and Desagana Diop. Kevin Willis comes back to haunt the Spurs? Don't think so.

Not that anyone is going to stop Nowitzki, but I like the pickup of Francisco Elson to put some size on him. He'll see the usual doses of Bruce Bowen and a pinch of Robert Horry. He'll get his points, but the Spurs will make him work.

And Popovich has quietly — well, OK, when he's not demeaning the effort — kept playing time down for the entire roster. No one is averaging 35 minutes per game and only three players, led by Duncan at 34, are over 30 minutes per game. The Mavs' top three scorers, for example, all averaged more than 35 minutes per game.

Yes, they're pros and can play. The point is the Spurs have been aiming for these playoffs all season. They haven't been caught up in winning streaks or media talk. They don't have an MVP candidate, though Duncan deserves to be in the top five. They even put Ginobili, arguably their second best player, on the bench as a sixth man and he'd averaged fewer than 30 minutes to save his body and his all-out tendencies.

Oh, I should mention the East as the rules still state an Eastern team must be in the Finals. And, after all, after Game 2 of last year's Finals I knew there was no way Dallas could lose. And, yes, there have been a lot of injuries this season and the team bus could get in a crash. But it's difficult seeing any Eastern team with even a chance to win the championship.

The general consensus is Miami and Detroit are the best, and they look like they'll fight it out before the conference finals. But who knows about Wade's condition and how long he can play, and there appears to issues developing on the Pistons with Rasheed Wallace and Chris Webber. Yes, shocking. Who would have imagined? The Bulls could be in the Finals. So could the Raptors. Maybe even the Cavs. If one of those teams gets there, you figure their seasons would be such a success by then it would be difficult to even take it seriously.

The Spurs have had their eye on nothing but the big prize.

And they're going to get it.


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