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Snap judgments from baseball's first week

A-Rod to hit 135 homers, Dice-K to win Cy Young among early forecasts

Image: A-Rod
Judging from the first week, Alex Rodriguez is going to have a monster season.
Jim Mone / AP
Video: Baseball from NBC Sports
Nats name Riggleman
Jim Riggleman was officially introduced as the manager of the Washington Nationals.

OPINION
By Mike Celizic
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 3:11 a.m. ET April 10, 2007

Mike Celizic
The so-called “experts,” which is a code word to describe people who know what they’re talking about, will tell you that you can’t tell anything from the first week of a 162-game baseball season. But what fun is that?

The truth is, if you don’t care about being a so-called “expert,” are willing to take absurd leaps of pseudo-logic, and don’t mind if your friends send you sarcastic E-mails containing the word “idiot” from now until October, you can tell everything from one week of baseball.

For instance, from one week, you can tell that global warming is no longer a threat to the planet, at least not to that part of it occupied by Cleveland.

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Thanks to Major League Baseball’s brilliant idea of opening most of the season in cold-weather cities, the Indians have had three games — and three make-up doubleheaders — snowed out.

Unable to play in Cleveland, the team has been granted permission to play the Angels at a neutral site in a much warmer city than the Mistake on the Lake — Milwaukee. Given Cleveland’s luck — it did, I believe, recently wrest away Detroit’s title as the poorest large city in America — it will probably still be snowing there in June and the Indians will be playing all their home games in Milwaukee in front of average crowds of 3,400 fans, including the guy with the drum.

This, Indians fans, is the best news you could possibly have, because it means your team is going to the World Series. I know this because when the Tribe made the playoffs in “Major League” and “Major League II,” the silver-screen team played its games in a sparsely settled Milwaukee County Stadium. If it works in the movies, it will work in real life.

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Another thing we know from the first week is that A-Rod is going to hit 135 home runs and drive in about 350. He’s got five dingers and 11 ribbies in his first six games, so all that’s left is to do the math, and those are the rough figures you come up with. He’ll be the talk of New York and the nation, and the headline writers at The Post will have mental breakdowns from not being able to write clever and sarcastic headlines about him. Best of all, he won’t go oh-for-October, because all his heroics will go for naught because the Yankee starting pitching can’t get a t-ball team out. And the kinder and gentler George Steinbrenner will react by giving manager Joe Torre and general manager Brian Cashman five-year contract extensions.

The Angels are going to the World Series. That’s already nailed down because Los Angeles-at-Anaheim’s pitching staff is carrying a 2.00 ERA. Given that the pitchers still aren’t in mid-season form, that number can only go down, right?

At the rate of one homer every seven games, Barry Bonds is going to need nearly the entire season to catch Hank Aaron. That’s actually good news for the Giants, who are going to win maybe 50 games and need to give their fans a reason to keep buying tickets.

Daisuke Matzusaka, AKA Dice-K, is going to win the Cy Young Award. You could see that from his first start for Boston. He’ll win the strike-out race, too, pitch three no-hitters, and make everybody forget about Ichiro, who is clearly on his way to being the first man to hit .400 since Ted Williams more than 65 years ago.


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