Tony DeMarco

The upcoming season will bring a batch of milestone breaking — everything from Craig Biggio reaching 3,000 hits (he’s 70 away), Tom Glavine getting his 300^th win (he’s 10 shy), to all-time save leader Trevor Hoffman passing the 500 mark (he’s 18 away).

But they all take a back seat, of course, to Barry Bonds’ pursuit of Hank Aaron. In fact, Bonds is within reach of two other historic plateaus — he needs 70 RBI to join Aaron, Babe Ruth and Cap Anson with 2,000, and further in the distance is Aaron’s all-time record for extra-base hits, as Bonds needs 79.

But nobody’s paying attention to those; only the chase to pass Aaron — 22 and counting. Considering Bonds hit 26 last season, and appears to be in better physical shape this spring, it’s a solid assumption that he will do it later this season barring another injury.

But how far will Bonds go? And how long will he hang onto the record that precious few outside of the Bay Area want him to break? Bonds has said he will play in 2008 if his body holds up, and if so, his final number should land between 760 and 800. Who can pass him, and when?

Your best bet currently wears pinstripes, but if you believe the rumblings — and there are far too many of them to ignore — Alex Rodriguez won’t be finishing his career in the Big Apple.

That actually could work in his favor when it comes to catching Bonds, as A-Rod’s demons real or imagined notwithstanding, Yankee Stadium is no place for a right-handed power hitter. Playing 13 seasons there, Joe DiMaggio amassed only 361 homers. A-Rod’s totals in three seasons as a Yankee are 36, 48 and 35 — as compared to his totals in three seasons in Texas — 52, 57 and 47 — which represent much bigger chunks out of the climb to 800.

Rodriguez sits at 464 entering this season at age 31, and in fact, is one of four players who could reach 500 homers in 2007, along with Frank Thomas (487), Jim Thome (472) and Manny Ramirez (470).

That leaves Rodriguez 336 shy of 800, or an average of 33.6 per year for the next decade, which would take him to age 40. It seems reachable, doesn’t it? And in fact, the Bill James Handbook gives A-Rod a 31 percent chance to surpass Aaron’s total, and a 50 percent chance to hit 700.

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Albert Pujols has a longer way to go and a lesser chance to get there. He just turned 27 in January, and is exactly at 250 homers — or just less than a third of the way to Aaron. He would have to average just over 36 homers over the next 15 seasons — or 46 over the next 12 — to reach 800, and that’s hard to imagine, even from him.

A longer shot is Andruw Jones, but he would have to pull an Aaron to surpass the first great Braves slugger. By that, we mean hitting far more home runs in his 30s than in his 20s, as Jones — who will turn 30 on April 23^rd — enters this season with 342.

So unless A-Rod can get there, Bonds’ reign as a scandal-scarred home run leader could stretch decades longer than MLB would like.

Q: Who should be the Dodgers’ fifth starter?
— Steve, San Diego

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A: In the 20-plus years I’ve been around spring training camps, I’m sure that the most overwritten story every March is the fifth-starter question. Rare is the rotation that makes it through a season using only five starters, so those last few candidates for the fifth spot every spring almost always get their chance at one point or another during the 162-game regular season.

In the Dodgers’ case, they have a couple of very good choices for their fifth starter, so I wouldn’t worry too much about it, Steve. Whoever is pitching the best coming out of camp likely will get the job, and how long he holds it is anybody’s guess.

With Chad Billingsley expected to start the season in the bullpen, Grady Little will choose from among Hong-Chih Kuo, Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson as the fifth guy behind Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Randy Wolf.

Personally, I like Kuo’s potential, but I could see choosing one of the two veterans, and either putting Kuo in the bullpen or sending him back to Triple A. There also is the possibility of a trade, particularly with Hendrickson, who would fit in pretty much any rotation in the majors.

No matter who gets the No. 5 job, I think the Dodgers will have one of the best rotations in the league, and that is the main reason why I am picking them to win the National League West.

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