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Duel in the desert favors Stewart

"Smoke" will keep Jimmie Johnson from three-peat at Las Vegas

Image: Tony Stewart
Tony Stewart's ability to adapt quickly to changes made at tracks is why he's the favorite to win Sunday's Nextel Cup race at the reconfigured Las Vegas Motor Speedway, writes Johnny Benson of MSNBC.com.
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NEXTEL CUP RACE PREVIEW
By Johnny Benson
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 7:32 p.m. ET March 10, 2007

Johnny Benson
After a week off, the Nextel Cup Series is back in action on Sunday at a renovated Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Speeds at this tri-oval should be much higher than in the past, and Tony Stewart, who never won on the original layout, is my pick to get to Victory Lane, denying Jimmie Johnson a third straight win at Las Vegas.

Working in Stewart's favor
The biggest changes at Las Vegas are a new asphalt surface and the transition of the track from a flat layout to one that has added banking to create a greater challenge for drivers and to bring about better racing.

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Stewart and his crew chief Greg Zipadelli adapt very quickly to changes made at tracks. That is one of their many strong suits. Look for Stewart to quickly settle in and get comfortable with the reconfiguration of the track.

There's also Stewart's intense competitiveness. The two-time Cup champion will embrace the challenge of being the first to win a Cup race at the new layout. He will go hard after his first win in the desert.

This race being in Las Vegas you might wonder what the oddsmakers think. Well, reasoning that the reconfigured track is much like the speedways in Atlanta and Texas where Stewart posted back-to-back wins late last season, they have made Stewart a 6-to-1 favorite over two-time defending Las Vegas race winner Johnson.

The No. 20 team of Joe Gibbs Racing is bringing to Las Vegas the chassis that won last year at Atlanta and Texas. It's also the chassis that got Stewart a win in the fuel mileage shootout at Kansas last season.

Overall this car has a solid history. In seven career starts it has never crossed the checkers lower than 15th. In addition to the three wins, it also has two other top-10s and 457 laps led.

Other drivers to watch
Given the changes made to the track, the past history of drivers at this venue diminishes in importance.

Kasey Kahne likes the new layout and he expect his No. 9 Dodge to be very competitive. I agree as Kahne's my choice to finish second to Stewart. Kahne runs well at all the mile-and-a-half tracks, and that's one of the reasons he feels ready for Las Vegas.

Kyle Busch a native of Las Vegas loves racing at the desert tri-oval. There's no question this young man gets a special feeling racing in front of his hometown crowd, and that could help carry him to a strong finish.

Kyle has an interesting thought on the new surface at Las Vegas and on new surfaces in general. He feels that there should not be racing at a resurfaced track for three years because the surface needs seasoning and a three-year window would give it time to bake in the summers.

Kyle's teammates at Hendrick Motorsports -- most notably Johnson -- have solid shots at running well on Sunday.

In five starts at Las Vegas, Johnson has completed all 1,338 laps. His win last year was a dramatic one as he took advantage of a late-race caution and caught and passed Matt Kenseth in a two-lap overtime sprint to the finish.

The other two Hendrick Motorsports cars are driven by Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears. Gordon is trying to begin the season with three consecutive top-10 finishes. Mears ran well in the Busch Series race two weeks ago at California Speedway, but is seeking to rebound from a not-so-hot Cup race at Fontana.

I look for dominant runs by the Richard Childress Racing cars of Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton even though neither driver was a proponent for changing Las Vegas. With the exception of Atlanta, the RCR cars for the most part have performed well at the mile-and-a-half tracks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has failed to finish the first two Cup races of the season and is 40th in the points so he needs a good result in the desert. I don't see Junior contending for the win, but he should contend for a top-10 finish.


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