Bill Clement

Colorado is not looking at a promising picture for making the playoffs.

Midway through the first week in March the Avalanche stood in ninth place in the Western Conference, six points back of eighth-place Minnesota.

If in its final 16 games Minnesota plays .500 hockey, Colorado would need 26 out of its final 32 possible points to overtake the Wild. That would mean the Avalanche would have to post a .800 winning percentage from the first Tuesday in March to the end of the regular season.

As they began a five-week stretch to the end of the regular season, the Avalanche were not conceding anything.

But even so, it's a battle lost for Colorado, a franchise that will have its run of 11-straight postseason appearances ended.

Sakic must stay
As soon as this season ends, Colorado will have to go to work on doing what's necessary for it to make a strong push to get back to the playoffs next season.

The team's first priority is to re-sign veteran star center Joe Sakic, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. I don't see getting Sakic's signature on a new deal as a major problem, but the one fly in the ointment for the Avalanche could be the degree of desire Sakic has to win one more Stanley Cup before he retires.

Sakic says he'd like to return to Colorado next season and negotiations on a new contract are expected to begin soon.

In 18 years in the NHL, he has played for only this franchise, and he has been the face of this franchise ever since it moved from Quebec for the 1995-96 season. Sakic loves Denver and is part of the community.

It's clear he's giving the Avalanche the first shot at his services going forward, but if he hits the summer as an unrestricted free agent, Colorado -- which won't be in position to win the Stanley Cup in 2007-08 -- could risk losing him to a team that will be in the hunt for a championship next season.

Sakic has enough gas left in his tank to play a few more seasons, so it very well could be he doesn't have an immediate sense that he has to leave Colorado and give up on the Avalanche eventually getting back to Cup-contending status before he retires.

Colorado not only should be able to re-sign him, it must do so.

A solid core up front
I like Colorado's forwards, a group that includes some young, quality players. The Avalanche have done a good job compiling some young frontliners to move forward with.

Forward Paul Stastny assisted on a first-period goal on March 11, giving him a point in 18 consecutive games and setting the NHL record for the longest points streak by a rookie.

Stastny's play is a lot like that of his dad, who skated in the NHL from 1980 to 1995. He is going to be a great player for a lot of years in the NHL.

Wojtek Wolski, who's also 21, has had a good year, and though it hasn't been as good as that of Stastny, he's on pace to score 20 goals in his first full NHL season.

Marek Svatos, who's 25 and who was re-signed as a restricted free agent after last season, has abundant offensive talent.

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Aside from the younger players up front, 31-year-old Milan Hejduk still has game, but he seems to have lost a step after his arthroscopic knee surgery in September of 2005. In spite of that, he will be a valuable player for the Avalanche moving forward.

Hejduk remains one of the best pure shooters in the league, and he has already surpassed his 24 goals of last season. He should score over 30 goals this season.

Tyler Arnason, signed as a free agent last summer after being drafted by the Blackhawks and playing three-plus seasons with Chicago, appears to have found a home in Colorado. He should be good for about 20 goals and 40 points this season.

Blue line has needs
You don't have to go back too far to when Colorado was loaded with very talented defensemen. But times have changed, and the offseason exit of Rob Blake via free agency was a hard hit to a blue-line group that was already short on depth.

As a unit, Colorado's defensemen are adequate, but adequate doesn't get you in the playoffs. The Avalanche need to retool their blue line for next season.

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Jordan Leopold playing so little is a key reason why the Avalanche have not been stronger on defense. The promising 26-year-old defenseman had hernia surgery in September, got back in early December and after playing in five games sustained a groin injury, which sidelined him for another 17 games.

After returning from his groin injury, Leopold skated in 10 games before he fractured his left wrist landing him on injured reserve. But even if Leopold had been able to stay healthy, Colorado's defense was not going to scare anybody.

The Avalanche have John-Michael Liles, whom I like as a player, especially with his slick puck-moving skills. Also, Karlis Skrastins is a solid defenseman.

Colorado's core of a top four on defense can't match that of the teams that are making the playoffs in the Western Conference. The Avalanche have some work to do this summer on the free-agent market in order to bolster their blue line.

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