June 1| 2:30 p.m. ET

Even in Paris where I am for the French Open it is impossible to escape l’affaire Bonds. John McEnroe, no defender of performance enhancement, wonders why Bonds alone, and not Major League Baseball, remains the subject of so much scrutiny. Fair question and I extend its use to the incessant focus on Bud Selig.

I cannot comprehend the interest in Selig’s possible attendance at the game(s) in which Bonds ties and break the all-time home run mark. Perhaps it is reflective of our talk show, poll-driven society. Everyone feels the need to weigh in with not an opinion but a declarative statement about Selig’s quandary.

In New York, where Bonds made his annual appearance this week, it even infected the gloried of all newspapers, the New York Times.

The debate leaves one question unaddressed: Who cares?

Trust me, the Barry Bonds I knew for nine years while doing Giants games, cares not a whit about Bud Selig. Bonds will hit home runs No. 755 and 756, accept whatever congratulations come his way, cash wherever possible, and move on to another goal: 3000 hits.

Whether or not Selig is in attendance is irrelevant to Bonds. So, why the unending attention?

What I don’t like about the debate: it unfairly, in this view, shifts the burden to Selig. The pundits decide what’s right and Selig’s actions are judged by that standard only. If Selig’s decision runs counter to the printed opinion, Selig will be pilloried.

What should happen in this view is that Selig should attend. But his presence serves as neither validation nor condemnation of Bonds. It serves only to acknowledge that next year’s baseball record book will contain Bonds’ name and numbers. The presence of the commissioner confirms the record book, not the individual record-holder.

Nothing changes this view that the court of public opinion is the ultimate judge of Bonds. In a Paris discussion last night, a colleague talked about his son’s Little League team. The group of 10-year-olds, said dad, are unanimous in their feeling that home run No. 756 will be tainted.

Rather than obsessing about Selig or Hank Aaron, the concern should be about how the youth of America regards the impending record.

May 31| 1:30 p.m. ET

It was just a few short years ago that Oakland general manager Billy Beane made an unusual decision. The franchise that prided itself in allowing free agents to leave while replacing them with homegrown talent and budget buys decided to keep one of their own.

After Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Jermaine Dye had left, with the pitching troika of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito staring at future free agency, the Athletics were left with a choice: Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez or neither. Tejada was a free agent, but committing to him would have doomed Chavez’s future in Oakland.

So Beane made a call that he has yet to repeat: Chavez got a long-term deal. The Athletics bought out his free agency. Now, Chavez is enduring a second consecutive subpar offensive season. No one questions his glove, but after a .241-22-72 year, Chavez is approaching June at a similar pace (.233-6-24). He had knocked in 100-plus runs in four of the previous five years and had a six-year streak of 26-plus homers.

While Tejada puts up good numbers in losing seasons for Baltimore, Chavez has not approached the player Oakland thought of as its foundation, yet the Athletics have won. It is a mystery to which there is no answer.

Milwaukee has hit the bump predicted by many when its May schedule turned unfriendly. But the N.L. Central is the Brewers best friend. Pittsburgh is second at 23-29 while the Cubs, Cards and Astros are stumbling through the first third of the season. Lou Piniella has been tested by agonizing bullpen blowups and the Astros have a surprisingly unthreatening lineup, contributing to their current 10-game skid.

Bolstered by a fine array of young talent, the Brewers recalled their top prospect, third baseman Ryan Braun. If needed, soon to follow is righty pitcher Yovani Gallardo.

May 30| 4:30 p.m. ET

Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle have saved the Reds with strong performances in the last two days. This team is on life support, with consecutive wins leaving them 8-20 since May 1 and in the early stages of a nine-game roadie.

The Cincinnati Enquirer published a story last week outlining the futility of mid-season managerial changes, but owner Bob Castellini has made his interest in winning now.

The Indians are passing the test in this crucial year. They swept the Tigers on the road in the teams’ first series. Return match starts Thursday in Cleveland. How have the Indians done this? They are 13-4 within their division. (Further, Milwaukee is a bold 17-8 in the N.L. Central and the Yanks are a staggering 5-14 in the A.L. East.)

May 28| 12:30 p.m. ET

Off to Paris for the French Open and it strikes me that tennis shares an interesting dilemma with baseball. Numbers leaking in media outlets highlight the disproportionate number of failed drug tests by baseball players from Latin and South American countries.

Tennis has seen an inordinate number of Argentine players busted for doping. It’s obvious there is a cultural disconnect with the growing knowledge that performance-enhancers are more easily obtained and silently accepted in those countries.

Some blame the language barrier, but that’s nonsense. Spanish-speakers have no trouble navigating their paychecks and life on the road. Understanding what could prevent you from enjoying those perks would seem mandatory.

Andre Agassi talked two years ago about his fear of taking anything stronger than aspirin. Tennis players are tested 8-10 times annually, including random out-of-competition tests. They are independent contractors, no team doctors to lean on. If the tennis world, a truly international set, can deal with the steroid issue so should the Spanish-speaking baseball world.

Statement: “His goal is to get the surgery done as quickly as possible and begin his rehab and be as aggressive as possible with it.” That from Gregg Clifton, Carl Pavano’s agent.

Translation: Pavano could care less about the Yankees. Surgery now allows him to try and pitch by August 2008, giving Clifton a chance to land him another deal in free agency.

Talked to Mets general manager Omar Minaya several weeks ago and he thought Sammy Sosa’s bat speed, gone during his disastrous Baltimore stay, was on the rebound. Quietly, Sosa moves towards 600 homers in a productive year for the Rangers.

Wednesday, Guillermo Mota is eligible to return from a 50-game suspension for steroid use. To recap: Mota, his career almost done, signs with the Mets last summer and has a near-miraculous rebirth. At year’s end, it is announced that he has failed a drug test, earning the mandatory first-offense suspension. The Mets announce they have re-signed Mota to a two-year contract. Pardon my confusion, but where exactly is the deterrent?

May 25| 7:00 p.m. ET

Went to see Tim Lincecum in person Tuesday night. He is the biggest hope for San Francisco baseball since the arrival of a left fielder 15 seasons ago. This was the second straight Lincecum-Roy Oswalt matchup, intriguing due to the constant comparisons between the two, primarily based on size, delivery and curveballs.

Impressions:
Lincecum is young. He looks like a batboy, facially reminiscent of now-retired third baseman Bill Mueller. He is slight and looks physically overmatched on the hill. Then, his right arm unleashes 96 mph fury and a paralyzing curveball. Two innings of watching from a seat 20 rows behind home plate causes one to wonder how this kid slipped to 10th in last year’s draft.

This was the second consecutive start for Lincecum against Houston, but he was not fazed. To be fair, the Astros, with Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman struggling, don’t have a fearsome lineup. Approach Carlos Lee with caution and you have a good chance to succeed. But, when you throw like Lincecum, there is no caution. He goes after every hitter with the wonderful naiveté of youth.

Craig Biggio declared Lincecum’s stuff the best of any young pitcher since Kerry Wood. So, I wonder out loud, is there a difference between living off your slider (Wood) or curve (Lincecum) in maintaining the health of a gifted arm? No one seems to have a clear answer, but Biggio’s opinion carries weight. He faced Wood on that April day when Wood’s nasty slider accounted for 20 strikeouts.

In his first start, Lincecum’s velocity was 97 in the first inning and 91 by the fifth. By Tuesday, that issue was corrected. In the eighth inning, he consistently hit 96 mph and had the Astros hitters still taking awkward, defensive swings. The most impressive inning of his night.

Managers can’t win. Bruce Bochy lifted Lincecum for a pinch-hitter in the home eighth, despite the dominant top half referenced previously. It’s harder to believe when Armando Benitez works the ninth and the Astros hitters swing with the comfort of a batting practice session. But, if Bochy had let the kid pitch the ninth, somewhere down the line he’ll face heat. Five years from now, should the kid develop a arm problem, some numbers people would look back at the pitches thrown in his rookie year.

Ask Dusty Baker, whose demise in Chicago was fueled by atrocious second-guessing of Wood and Mark Prior’s 2003 workload. No one had a problem when the Cubs were five outs from the World Series.

Lincecum’s arrival coupled with the progress of Matt Cain and a renaissance from Matt Morris has San Francisco in N.L. West contention. This is a pitcher’s division, with three pitcher-dominant parks (SF, SD, LA), a spacious hitter’s yard in Arizona and the unique aura that is Colorado. Arms rule in the West, and the proliferation of young pitching should sustain, making it difficult for teams in this division to lure free-agent hitters.

May 23| 7:30 p.m. ET

Will Boston play .674 baseball the rest of the season? And will the Yankees play at a .467 clip?

The answers to both are likely no. Thus, the hysterics in New York over the current 9½ game gap between the rivals are a bit premature. Doesn’t anyone of age remember 1978?

Now having used logic, a closer examination does give credence to the optimism of the Red Sox. Most prominently the extreme difference in starting pitching between the two clubs is staggering. Boston is fourth in the A.L. ERA (3.73) and the Yankees 10th (4.95). The A.L. is hitting only .242 -- 24 points below the league average -- against the Red Sox starters.

And the domino effect of good starting pitching is felt in the bullpen. Not only do the Red Sox have the lowest relief ERA in the AL (2.94), but also their pen has pitched the second fewest innings. Over the summer months keeping order in a staff is one of the huge factors that separate teams. Last summer the Red Sox pen was a disaster, forcing overuse of Jonathan Papelbon. That looks much less likely to happen this season.

Meanwhile, the Yankees pen has issued an absurdly high 86 walks in 158 innings. There is little order in their group, and that will be general manager Brian Cashman’s biggest charge in the mid-summer correction season. Can he fix this pen, as John Schuerholz tried last summer in Atlanta?

So what about Roger Clemens yells the Yankee supporter? He’ll make a difference for New York, no doubt, but so could Jon Lester for Boston. Lester is on track to return from his battle with lymphatic cancer. Big difference: The Yankees need Clemens as an ace while the Sox will calmly slide Lester into the fifth spot. (Trouble for the Yankees: Mike Mussina, who they need to be an ace, is battered and lost Tuesday’s game to journeyman Julian Tavarez).

For every Yankee whose performance should improve towards career norm, such as Bobby Abreu (.239-2-22) or Johnny Damon, searching for a missing spark (.275-2-16), there is a Boston counter such as J.D. Drew (.237) or even Manny Ramirez (.250-7-28.) And how long can Jorge Posada, 36 in August, continue at his .367 pace while catching every day?

Wednesday's game was a big relief in Yankeeland after an 8-3 win. But there's still a long way to go.

May 21| 5:30 p.m. ET

Last Thursday a game took place at Shea Stadium whose meaning went beyond that day. In fact, the game may tell us more about the two teams than any game so far this season.

Playing with only two of their Opening-Day starters, the Mets trailed the Cubs 5-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth. Ryan Dempster looked to close out a win that would have given the Cubs a split of four games in New York, a lift for a team fighting to reach .500 and heading home for a rivalry weekend series with the White Sox.

Only the Mets rallied with five runs to win. And the heroes were guys like Damion Easley and Ruben Gotay, who make teams like the Mets stronger than the rest. Everyone on those teams expects to be a hero. Fueled by that kind of play, the Mets ran away with their division last year. Now, they have opened their first breathing room on the Braves this year.

For the Cubs, it could have been a crushing defeat. Instead, they regrouped and took two of three from the White Sox with a large assist from Ozzie Guillen. The White Sox manager launched a profane tirade on live Chicago radio Friday morning, effectively deflecting focus from the Cubs collapse less than 24 hours earlier.

Cubs manager Lou Piniella is trying to exhibit patience with an erratic bullpen. And the Cubs are showing life, although moments like the final out Sunday, a 4-6-3 groundout by Alfonso Soriano who failed to run hard, will quickly push Piniella to the limit.

May 18| 8:30 p.m. ET

CAN YOU BELIEVE?
Can you believe the N.L. home run leader on May 21 is Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy? Can you believe Hardy is also the N.L. RBI leader?

Hardy is the leading example of the total resurgence in talent by the N.L. at the game’s premier position. Just five years ago one looked at Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada and recognized that at shortstop the N.L. paled in comparison to the A.L. Combining size, range, and unseen power for shortstops, that Jeter-Rodriguez-Garciaparra-Tejada quartet redefined the position.

At that time, Rafael Furcal was the N.L.’s best. Now the emergence of Jimmy Rollins and the explosion of Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, and Hardy has relegated Furcal to also-ran status. Reyes is simply the league’s best player while Ramirez is the most unheralded. Edgar Renteria has regained his prior form to join the ageless Omar Vizquel (Hall of Fame bound?) as the top veteran pair.

There are the steady (Jack Wilson, Khalil Greene, World Series MVP David Eckstein), and the babies (Stephen Drew, and Troy Tulowitski). If the latter pair develops as expected in the next year, this could be the N.L’s golden era of shortstops.

The batting averages of Drew (.232) and Tulowitski (.243) are necessary to remind us the game isn’t as easy at it looks. Just ask heralded Royals third baseman Alex Gordon (.164, 5 RBI and 41 K in 128 AB), Rangers starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy (3-4, 6.51), and Devil Rays outfielder Elijah Dukes (.225 with 7 HR and only 12 RBI).

Can you believe after April was the month of Alex Rodriguez; May has been the month of Derek Jeter? After games of May 20 A-Rod was hitting .254 with three home runs and seven RBI following an April that saw him bat .355 with 14 home runs and 34 RBI.

Jeter after games of May 20 was hitting .392 with one home run and 16 RBI on the heels of an April where he batted .344 with two home runs and eight RBI.

Can you believe the Red Sox are 30-13 while Julio Lugo (26) has more RBI than Manny Ramirez (25)?

Can you believe the Mets lead the N.L. in runs scored per game while Carlos Delgado languishes at .214 with 23 RBI?

Can you believe Oakland is getting its expected power surge from the DH spot -- but it’s the renowned Triple-AAA slugger Jack Cust who’s providing the pop? The man who travels with bat and no glove has jolted Oakland with eight home runs in 46 at-bats while replacing the injured Mike Piazza.

Can you believe Ken Griffey Jr. has been Cincinnati’s best player? Junior has put up superb first quarter numbers (.297-8-26) while staying fairly injury-free.

Can you believe B.J. Upton forces us to again rethink the meaning of the strikeout? The Devils Rays prodigy is threatening the batting lead at .309 while posting a whopping league-best 50 strikeouts.

Can you believe Richie Sexson is forcing upon himself a comparison to Dave Kingman? Similar build, similar raw strength, and similar all-or-nothing numbers define a slugger who too often delivers empty power numbers.  Sexson, a .267 career batter, is struggling at .162 as a player paid $15.5 million by Seattle this year.

Can you believe Andruw Jones (.212-6-30) has scuffled at the plate in the most important year of his career -- his walk-to-free-agency season?

Can you believe the NBA fiasco involving San Antonio and Phoenix was the most-analyzed video since the Zapruder film?

Can you believe the most absurd stat of this season is the major-league best 1.223 OPS posted by -- not A-Rod -- but Barry Bonds? Approaching his 43rd birthday, Bonds is San Francisco’s best player. The man defines defiance.

BLUE JAYS’ BLUES
This was supposed to be the year for J.P, Ricciardi, the bright general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays. His team used a strong finishing kick last year to bypass Boston and finish second to the Yankees in the A.L. East. His owner invested heavily in the team by keeping their signature player, Vernon Wells.

Ricciardi seemed to have a devastating power quartet of Wells, Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Lyle Overbay. Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett anchored the rotation with a talented young arm in Gustavo Chacin returning from injury. B.J. Ryan, a fabulous free-agent success story, was alongside Mariano Rivera as the division’s top closer.

Everything was in place for the Jays to make their run. Ricciardi believed enough that he questioned Gil Meche’s willingness to compete when the pitcher passed on Toronto to sign in Kansas City.

Then in spring training the first sign was Ryan’s “back injury.” It turned out to be a blown elbow and the end of Ryan’s season. Next leadoff hitter Reed Johnson went down, followed quickly by another Chacin elbow issue, and Halladay’s appendicitis and too quickly the Jays were caught in a downward spiral that has left them staring up at the postseason chase.

What is the fallout? Ricciardi says the Jays are “hanging in there.” As they claw their way back towards .500, think about the Yankees. Why? As the fate of Western civilization is debated as it relates to the Yankees chances of catching Boston, baseball’s new rallying cry is “Remember the Wild Card!”

And the Yankees have 17 games remaining with Toronto. If the Jays can’t repair their team, those games could provide an unintended boost to the Yankees while the AL Central heavyweights pound each other.

THE AMERICAN IDLE STALLED YET AGAIN
The stories from the Bronx state as accepted fact that Carl Pavano wants "Tommy John" surgery as soon as possible. The Yankees are contemplating options.

So Pavano, who has pitched 111 innings in two-plus seasons for the Yankees, wants to end any chance to help the team this year that is paying him $40 million.

Should Pavano have surgery soon, he targets returning to the Yankees for the second half of 2008, enabling him to prove his health entering into free agency. But should Pavano attempt to rehab this year and ultimately require the surgery at a later time, he would likely enter free agency post-2008 season as a question mark.

So, let's get this straight: if we are to believe the stories out of New York, Pavano feels little drive to help the team that made him wealthy. The Yankees have tolerated his frequent injuries and apparent lack of interest in rushing back to the game. He has been ostracized by his teammates, called out publicly by some. What sales approach could he use for another lucrative contract if he doesn't pitch?

This has the stench of a bad example of this remarkably affluent era in baseball, and can be another cautionary tale about investing huge in free-agent pitching.

May 10| 8:30 p.m. ET

Tom Glavine admitted that the question was tough. After assuming that he might be the last 300-game winner in years (Randy Johnson is now a real option), Glavine was asked if the rapidly-increasing longevity of players might cause more pitchers to last long enough to hit the magic number.

After all, Roger Clemens will pitch until he’s 75 if someone keeps paying him. Greg Maddux is still going beyond anyone’s imagination, the same for David Wells, Jamie Moyer and Kenny Rogers. Glavine himself thought he’d be retired by now; but his previously stalled pursuit of 300 has kept him going.

Glavine looks as healthy as ever. His pitching coach, Rick Peterson, thinks Glavine is throwing as well if not better than when he first arrived in New York five years ago. Might others be similarly motivated?

Glavine hedged his answer, as he did when asked what the number 300 means to him. This is the overlooked chase of this season. Quietly and professionally, the way Glavine has conducted himself for 20 years, he has moved to within six wins of 300.

There is a peace around Glavine, the serenity that comes with accepting the inevitable. He sees the finish line, as well as the talented team surrounding him, and knows it is likely to happen. In his first two years with the Mets, he looked at the team around him and his own uneven performance and was unsure he’d ever see the finish line.

Give Glavine credit for change, the kind of change that is often extremely difficult for veterans to make. For 15 years in Atlanta, he lived on the outside corner. Baseball took that pitch away from Glavine when Questec was introduced. But it took Glavine some time to adjust.

On April 6, 2005, Glavine made his first start of a new season in Cincinnati. Twice in the first inning he came inside on right-handed batters searching for a called third strike. Both times his pitch hit the catcher’s glove precisely where Mike Piazza had set the target. Neither time did ump Chuck Meriwether call the pitch a strike. Both times, the next pitch surrendered a hit and Glavine didn’t make it out of the fourth inning.

I believe that start, coming after two disappointing seasons with the Mets, the seasons that would force him to keep pitching for his magic number of 300, changed Glavine. He listened to Peterson’s position that Glavine had to change his career-long pitching style in order to survive. That if he wanted 300 wins, and election to the Hall of Fame he had to adjust.

Five days later, Glavine outdueled Andy Pettitte at Shea Stadium 3-1. Since then, although the numbers aren’t substantial proof, he has pitched inside to righties with enough pop on his fastball to keep them honest. The team around him is better. He has closure with the Braves. After a brief romance last November and no offer from Atlanta, he returned to the Mets.

Three-hundred wins will happen for him, perhaps by the All-Star break. And if he pitches 170 innings, a near certainty, Glavine controls his option for 2008. My guess: he’ll try to open the Mets new ballpark in 2009.

Josh Hamilton was supposed to be doing this -- hitting home runs, displaying an exceptional arm, running with top-level speed all in a sculpted 6-foot-4 frame that elicited a then-record $3.96 million signing bonus in 1999.

It’s just that no one could have imagined his path. Endless battles with drug and alcohol. Three years on baseball’s suspended list. Finally clean, he returned to A-ball last year only to have a knee injury end his comeback after 50 at-bats.

So a Rule V pick (by the Cubs) and trade (to Cincinnati) last December seemed nothing more than a curious footnote to the winter meetings. Now, we know better.

We watched Hamilton impress in spring training and slowly grow into the consciousness of Reds manager Jerry Narron. We discovered that Narron’s brother had managed Hamilton on a travel team when the budding star was 15. We heard the scouts rave that the talent was still there, talent that Reds scout Chris Buckley said was second only to Alex Rodriguez in 25 years of watching high school players.

Then we saw him make the team. He was, and still is, a reserve. The Reds start Adam Dunn, Ryan Freel and Ken Griffey Jr. in their outfield. But Hamilton is making the Reds’ lineup decisions tough by making the game look ridiculously easy.

Look at the package: power (fifth in NL slugging percentage); patience (.364 OBP); and defense (seek the highlight of his cannon arm gunning down speedster Willy Taveras on Saturday. There have been many similar moments in the first six weeks of the season).

Wayne Krivsky and staff, notably Buckley, deserve great credit for their pursuit of Hamilton. And they will reap the benefits this offseason.

Assume Hamilton continues to -- most importantly -- keep his life in order, and also produce on the field. The Reds hold a $13 million club option on Dunn for 2008, which is also the final guaranteed year for Griffey. Trading Austin Kearns last summer was unpopular in Cincinnati. Now the Reds appear to have found the replacement, and it's turning out to be one the best stories of the season.

May 4| 6:00 p.m. ET

One month in to the season and some teams have established their credentials. Others appear to have been exposed.

It’s something of a rush to judgment, but with nearly 20 percent of the season already played, here are four teams that should be factors this summer and four other teams that won't be.

CONTENDERS
MILWAUKEE
This is the National League’s perfect storm: a fine group of young talent jelling in a wide-open division with the defending world champions stumbling through April.

Milwaukee was a huge disappointment last year yet there was no panic this winter. They made a huge commitment -- both on the field and in the bank -- to Bill Hall and his move to center field has worked.

Their infield is solidified with the emergence of shortstop J.J. Hardy (and the NL has seen a tremendous boost in top shortstops. Look at Reyes, Ramirez, Drew, Lopez, Tulowitski, and Hardy to go with vets Rollins, Vizquel, Furcal, Renteria, Greene, Wilson, and World Series MVP Eckstein. It’s been a while since the league has had this kind of strength at the position.

Most of all this is about the Brewers’ end-game play. Derrick Turnbow has rebounded as a top-flight setup man for Francisco Cordero, a combo nicknamed “C-Square.” Carlos Villanueva, who emerged with a gem against St. Louis on the final day of 2006, replaced an injured Chris Capuano Wednesday and tossed four shutout innings of relief.

The Brewers can score, play reasonably good defense, and close games. If they stay fairly healthy (read: Ben Sheets), they have a strong chance to end a 25-year postseason drought.

CLEVELAND
April 19 could have been a defining day for this team. Joe Borowski suffered a six-run meltdown in the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium. A team whose 2006 hopes were destroyed by a faulty bullpen could well have slipped down a similar path.

Since that afternoon, the Indians are 10-2. So much for history repeating itself.

And the bullpen, even with one horrid inning, ranks fifth in the American League. Opponents are only hitting .216 against the Tribe relievers, third in the league.

General manager Mark Shapiro’s rebuild of the pen has worked. And there is a solid team surrounding the staff, whose character has been displayed in surviving the aberrant April weather and a design flaw in the AL schedule.

Only catch in first month: that schedule flaw means the Indians have only played eight division games (6-2), none with Detroit.

ATLANTA
The Braves are back and Wednesday night may have been final proof of that. With closer Bob Wickman on the DL, the Braves new bullpen tossed four scoreless innings against Philadelphia.

Mike Gonzalez appears on track after an MRI two weeks ago cleared up concerns about an elbow injury. Rafael Soriano has held opponents scoreless in 10 of 12 appearances and supporting roles are being filled capably by Tyler Yates and Chad Paronto.

Edgar Renteria appears reborn while the Kelly-Johnson-to-second-base move appears to be another Braves winner.

Lastly, they won four of six from the Mets in Round 1. The summer in the NL East should be much more entertaining this year.

TAMPA BAY
OK, they aren’t going to win the AL East. but this team is much closer than ever before  to being a team with a chance.

Former big league pitcher Joe Magrane, in his 10th year as a Rays’ television analyst, told me over the weekend that this is the first time he can sense things truly moving in the right direction for a franchise that has never won more than 70 games in a season.

Ty Wigginton, a ninth-inning hero against Minnesota closer Joe Nathan Wednesday, came through the Mets' system with Jose Reyes and played briefly with David Wright. He has seen exceptional young talent up close and personal. And Wigginton thinks Tampa Bay’s corps can better what the Mets have developed with their extraordinary pair.

In Wigginton’s view Delmon Young has more offensive potential. And did you see the highlights of his pair of rocket throws from right field to cut down two Twins baserunners Wednesday.

Elijah Dukes has every physical tool and the Rays hope he finds the necessary maturity to realize his potential. B.J. Upton is making errors (8), but there is hope that second base is his eventual position. Scott Kazmir is the pitching answer to Dukes.  Everything is in place to be an ace if he can sustain the necessary work habits. Finally, Al Reyes is lending unexpected stability to the bullpen.

It won’t be 2007, but the Rays are starting to win the kind of games that accelerate a team’s growth. They are still baseball’s most anonymous team, but one with talent worth seeing.

PRETENDERS
YANKEES
OK, they probably won’t bottom out in 2007. And there is so much talent that it is hard to fathom a season-long flounder, but things aren’t trending well in the Bronx.

The starting pitching is atrocious (OBA .296, last in the AL.) Mike Mussina returned Thursday, but young hope Phil Hughes will sit for a month or more with an injured hamstring.

Relievers are hanging by a thread, victimized through overuse (100 innings in 24 games) because of the poor starting pitching. Mariano Rivera has looked human and the Yankees have no Plan B.

How much of all this can Roger Clemens possibly save?

PHILADELPHIA
The glaring weakness here is obviously their bullpen: 4.43 ERA, .267 OBA, both in the bottom quarter of the NL. Closer Tom Gordon’s shoulder could be a long-term blessing as it speeds the transition of Brett Myers into the bullpen.

Still there is nothing in the first 30 games that causes one to consider the Phillies as a summer contender. And as Ryan Howard eventually heats up, the tepid power start by Pat Burrell will be a concern.

HOUSTON
Yes, they have been a good second-half team. And the division is wide open. Carlos Lee has been a strong offensive addition and Roger Clemens always looms. But this team is like Philadelphia. There just isn’t enough spark to embrace the Astros.

Craig Biggio’s march to 3000 hits has taken some precedence for ownership and he bats leadoff. There is little speed in the lineup and too many positions that provide little offensive pop. Right now they are 13th in runs playing in a bandbox.

Then there is Brad Lidge. At some point this summer, he needs to rebound if the Astros are to make a move.

TEXAS
Same old story. They can’t pitch. Here are the gruesome numbers for their starting pitching in 26 games:  6.48 ERA, and a .295 OBA. Both are horrid, although the Yankees starters have actually allowed a higher opponent batting average.

Their offense has only been average, but over time in their ballpark the Rangers will score. They have simply become the Colorado Rockies of the AL, unable to overcome the imbalance of their home field.

April 26| 6:30 p.m. ET

We predict, pontificate, and excoriate with certainty. We often have amnesia when our bluster goes awry. Not here for we present April’s version of those in Major League Baseball who have proved us wrong:

ALEX RODRIGUEZ
Your genial blogger mentioned once or a dozen times during the offseason that A-Rod could not stay a Yankee. Batting eighth in the playoffs, becoming the symbol of October failures for his team, the ongoing coolness with Derek Jeter would all combine to create such frenzy in the Yankee clubhouse that a trade would be necessary.

Pretty good thought, huh, although we weren’t alone. At least one smug self-serving “I told you so” missive appeared in a major newspaper this week, but no memory exists of reading such a piece in November.

Anyway, A-Rod has had not only the greatest April in baseball history, but also arguably the greatest month. Forget the baseball specifics that are being dissected in other quarters.

Look at a man staring at an avalanche of negative in our toughest town and scoring a first-round knockout. See a man who was humbled last October carrying the same team in the first month. Hear the fans that booed and called talk radio to crush him revel in his astonishing feats.

Credit to A-Rod. Having experienced the New York baseball scene for four years, and watching fine players beaten down (Roberto Alomar), I never thought this possible.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Aged, lifeless and directionless. That’s the picture painted of the Giants a week ago. And not without merit after an offseason in which the team vowed to get younger, but still fielded the oldest Opening Day lineup in baseball. 

Seven consecutive wins later; the Giants' summer looks much brighter.

Two men have created that hope, Matt Cain and Barry Bonds. Cain has arrived. Just 22, he looks to be the successor to Roger Clemens as the game’s premier power pitcher. In his first 29 innings this season, he allowed 11 hits. That is insane until you watch hitters flail at a fastball they say has deceptive speed.

Cain is now a stud, and his development alleviates a great deal of pressure from Barry Zito.

Bonds, meanwhile, is frighteningly defiant of age. Last year he looked every bit of his years and how could anyone have expected anything else this season.

Well, Bonds has made a career out of defiance. And now his healthier legs give him a foundation he lacked the last two years. He is swinging as well as in recent years and moving better around the bases and outfield.

Not only will he hit his record-breaking 756th home run sooner rather than later, he may regain his spot as a dominant offensive force, something the game has never seen from a 43-year-old.

GIL MECHE
Quietly, Meche’s start has silenced the avalanche of mockery surrounding his deal with Kansas City. He has given the Royals a solid No. 1 starter, his consistency of performance affording the luxury of one day in five when his team knows it can win a game.

It is impossible to throw the dollars out, but slide them to the side for a moment. Kansas City needed credibility with its fans. The franchise needed to show players around baseball its commitment to winning. And they needed to convince their own clubhouse of the same. Meche is a step in that direction.

Is he Matt Cain? No. But he is the best the Royals have had leading their rotation since Paul Byrd (17 wins in 2002).

EL DUQUE
The only concern about the Mets' rotation was its depth. Count on Glavine, but could El Duque (given age 41, but believed in Cuba to be closer to 45) stand up as a No. 2 starter?

So far, El Duque is pitching like a 21-year-old. Confounding hitters from different arm angles and with multiple pitches, he has allowed just 22 hits in 32 innings.

Caution flag, though, for durability. Only once in the majors (with the Yankees in 1999) has El Duque made 30 starts.

NO YANKEE PANIC
Wasn’t that last week’s theme? Go with the kids, Karstens and Wright at Fenway and avoid a veteran tryout camp (see 2005, Darrell May, Tim Redding, Aaron Small, and Al Leiter). Avoid pushing their top gun, Philip Hughes, until later in the season.

Well, Hughes is in the bigs, scheduled to make his major league debut tonight at Yankee Stadium. Beyond Hughes, Joe Torre surprised many Yankee observers by using Mariano Rivera in the eighth inning of last Friday’s game and Andy Pettitte in relief Sunday night.

Torre -- in this humble blogger’s view the game’s greatest active manager -- demonstrated that every Yankee-Red Sox game is a September-October game. There is no April in the Bronx. Not even for A-Rod, whose amazing April feats will mean nothing without an October surge.

An aside: what a week for young pitching. Monday, Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, and Mark Prior were headliners for the wrong reasons. Hernandez looks to be short-term with elbow stiffness, but Harden is a concern for Oakland. Is he a younger Prior, dominating stuff neutered by an inability to stay healthy? Shutting Harden down after three starts is a statement by Oakland that their thinking may need to change.

Prior had surgery Wednesday after which Dr. James Andrews, a highly credible surgeon, said Prior should be able to pitch again. When and will it last?

So these are anxious moments for those in baseball that possess great arms. Cain has stayed healthy, but the Giants face another question as Tim Lincecum, their No. 1 pick last June, is overpowering Triple-A hitters.

How patient are the Giants with a pitcher less than a year out of college, but who is three months older than Cain and was drafted just five slots after Brandon Morrow, who posted his first major-league win this week for Seattle?

April 19| 4:00 p.m. ET

Round 1 of Yankees-Red Sox 2007 is set for this weekend at Fenway Park and the setup differs for both teams from many recent meetings.

YANKEES SURVIVAL
With their rotation in tatters (three starters on the DL), Hideki Matsui also hurt, and no offense yet from first base, the Yankees are in a most unusual April position. Their immediate goal is to stay afloat while they regain health and answer lineup questions.

Obviously, Alex Rodriguez is carrying a ton with his torrid start, but the Yankees' trademark offensive trait, patience, is intact. Even in losing a weekend series in Oakland, they worked counts, ran pitch counts high, and drew walks. They are scoring runs as Jorge Posada, who joins A-Rod and Mariano Rivera as Yankees possibly in their final year in pinstripes, is helping A-Rod with a strong April.

If the Yankees awaken on June 1 with first place in the division in range, they will feel good and the Red Sox will see an opportunity lost.

NO YANKEE PANIC
With their rotation decimated, the Yankees would be expected to fall back on their tried and true process of importing live veteran arms. Recall 2005 when they were saved by Aaron Small and a fading Al Leiter.

Now the Brian Cashman era is official. Chase Wright started Tuesday night, the same pitcher who was the Class A Florida State League pitcher of the year last season. Class A to Yankee Stadium? When was the last time that route was used?

Jeff Karstens, the projected sixth starter out of spring, should return from injury to face the Red Sox. And somewhere in the summer, a time of need could bring the prize prospect, Philip Hughes, to the Bronx.

The point: no journeymen, rather solid prospects signal a new phase for the Yankees.

RED SOX STATEMENT
Their pitching allows them that chance this weekend. Signing Daisuke Matsuzaka looks wiser with each turn through the rotation. He has terrific deception to use with swing-and-miss stuff. Coupled with Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling, the Red Sox have a power rotation unmatched in baseball.

Boston is riding those starters in the early weeks. They are pitching with terrific control, averaging only 2.5 walks per game, and compiling enough innings to avoid a heavy workload for closer Jonathan Papelbon.

Papelbon has only worked 3.1 innings, but his Sunday night save in Texas 10 days ago was an eye-opener. If the Red Sox bullpen can do its collective job and, as the Yankees have for Rivera, keep Papelbon to one-inning appearances, he may inherit the crown as the American League’s top closer.

Meanwhile, the Yankees lean on Andy Pettitte, who has pitched a pair of terrific road games already, to anchor the lead game of the weekend. So much for bringing back Roger Clemens’ buddy -- after two weeks, Pettitte is the staff leader.

Can Manny Ramirez get going on offense and Derek Jeter on defense? It’s amazing that A-Rod’s remarkable April has been joined by an unprecedented fielding slump by Jeter.

The Yankees and Red Sox figured Toronto to be in the division hunt, but that might not be the case. The most significant injury in the AL East: B.J. Ryan’s elbow that floors a Toronto team poised to threaten the big boys. Can Jason Frasor fill the role that once belonged to him and can Ryan truly return in six weeks?

BARRY BONDS' WEEK
A brilliant play by the slugger this week in defusing the Hank Aaron story. Bonds blamed the media for overplaying Aaron’s statements about not attending the eventual 756th homer.

Aaron and Bonds were once business partners along with Willie Mays in an attempt to cash in on Bonds’ chase. Times have clearly changed as Aaron, who owes nothing to anyone, has stated he won’t honor Bonds. But Bonds, in a wise move, praised Aaron and followed the classic Washington play of attacking the messenger.

On the field, Bonds' bat continues to look good. His knees clearly provide the foundation that he lacked last year as he is pulling the ball with more authority.

Watching these first two weeks leaves only one conclusion; homer No. 756 is not a question of if, but when.

April 12| 3:30 p.m. ET

Early trouble
If you’re in Philadelphia, San Francisco or any other city whose team did not play well in the first 10 days of the season, then Oakland is your inspiration.

We rush to judge faster than ever in our society and baseball is the sport that most demands patience. Would the Oakland teams of the recent past have been as successful if they played under the umbrella of more demanding ownership, critical media or shortsighted fans?

Could they have posted these winning percentages in the second half of the last six seasons (.773, .716, .609, .579, .587, .649) under such scrutiny? Or would panic have led to changes that may not have produced the same results?

Fair questions, but a focus on just Oakland’s second-half performance obscures one fact -- in each of the last six seasons, the Athletics have played better than .500 ball over the first half of the schedule.

So it seems that a team can surge after the All-Star break but not levitate from the ranks of the downtrodden. A bad start, replete with ugly losses, bullpen meltdowns or hitting freezes, can bury a team beyond hope. Ask Atlanta, a team unable to rebound from last June’s relief corps disintegration.

Watch Philadelphia, in need of a bullpen overhaul, San Francisco, in need of an influx of hitting, and Houston, changing closers after one week.

See if they can survive the rough patches of April and stay within striking distance of the division leaders. Atlanta went 6-21 last June, started July 13.5 games behind the Mets, and never made any semblance of a push.

Early returns
Barry Bonds, 43 in July, played in eight of San Francisco's first nine games, but that didn't help the Giants' slumbering offense, shackled by an expected lack of speed, and an unexpected lack of power (just one triple and two homers in the first nine games).

Bonds looks better than a year ago. His legs have more spring, his play in left field less statuesque, and his base running livelier, although his unwillingness to slide at any time is incredibly distasteful.

This view also notices one carryover from last year. Bonds still doesn’t pull the ball with the same authority. Not shocking for mere mortals, but we've watched Bonds defy time for so long.

Now though he doesn’t seem able to turn and spin on pitches. Over the Giants first nine games, his lone homer was a left-center field drive that became his specialty last year. Perhaps his legs, even though healthier than last year, no longer provide the foundation for a true power swing.

But Bonds is striving for something else. Not just homer No. 756. He wants to play in 2008. His stated goal is 3000 hits, a mark he could reach if he plays into next season.

The Giants have said that 2007 is their last ride on the Bonds' carnival so the man appears bent on proving to other teams that he will be a worthy sign -- the Roger Clemens of hitters in 2008.

Of early interest
Atlanta is back. Of particular note in the Braves' 7-1 start is that the Jones boys were silent until a week and a half into the season. The Braves' pitching is back, and general manager John Schuerholz’s bullpen makeover is an early success.

Remember the Mets blew away the field in the first 75 games last year. No one pressed them, an unlikely scenario to repeat this year.

Mike Piazza has blasted out of the gate as a DH. A .359 hitter in the early going, Piazza is bringing a new life to his career and seems to be thriving on the liveliness of the A’s clubhouse.

Is there a better pitching coach than Dave Duncan of St. Louis? Leo Mazzone grabbed headlines in his Atlanta years, but no one has matched Duncan’s unrelenting ability to straighten out wayward arms.

Braden Looper, totally ineffective against left-handed batters causing his closer’s career to end, has been transformed into an effective starter. If Jeff Weaver and dozens of like pitchers ever chose to gift a commission of their post-Duncan nsalaries, the man would own islands.

Do you think the teams that signed Barry Zito, Gil Meche, Ted Lilly; etc. took note of Mike Hampton’s annual blowout. He will arrive in 2008 Braves spring camp as a 35-year-old making in excess of $15 million who hasn’t appeared in a game in 2 and a half years!

Watched this on television: Daryle Ward, pinch-hitting for the Cubs, hits a broken-bat grounder to second base in the ninth inning. To the shock of all, including the Cubs' announcers, Houston turns a double play.

Ward is a left-handed batter. There should never have been a throw to first on this ball, let alone a completed double play. The point: Ward is too big. Listed at 240, he runs like he’s 340.

This is not to single out Ward, but rather to illuminate a growing problem. Baseball players are too big. Pitchers are particular offenders, but the Daryle Wards now believe they can survive by simply swinging the bat. Their size prevents them from helping their teams in any other way.

After Ward, Alfonso Soriano came to the plate. The contrast was stark; a healthy athlete who could help his team in multiple ways. That is the minimum that teams should demand from players in this era of gold in baseball.

Mar. 28| 5:30 p.m. ET

Here are some key questions surrounding baseball's top storylines that I look to be answered early in the new season:

CAN OLD FACES THRIVE IN NEW PLACES?
Sammy Sosa is the poster boy, but Mike Piazza, Moises Alou and Frank Thomas are sluggers expected to produce at advanced ages for their new teams.

Shannon Stewart seems healthy and, if true, should give Oakland a huge lift as another late bargain acquisition.

He has never played a major-league game, but the saga of former No. 1 draftee Josh Hamilton has captured much of Florida.

Eight years after being the overall top pick in baseball’s amateur draft and having barely played in the last four years while battling substance issues, Hamilton appears to be a lock to make Cincinnati’s roster.

CAN NEW FACES THRIVE?
Kansas City has entrusted third base to its biggest hope, Alex Gordon, while shifting Mark Teahen to the outfield.

Colorado has turned its shortstop job to Troy Tulowitski while Eric Reed is on the verge of getting a second chance to win the Florida center field job, and Delmon Young, at 21, is a regular for Tampa Bay.

It’s still the most enjoyable part of early April, watching the best of the young try to make the biggest jump of their baseball lives.

CAN THE YOUNG ARMS MATURE?
The Bay Area offers the most compelling pair of young pitchers: Oakland needs a healthy Rich Harden, whose stuff was compared to John Smoltz by A.J. Pierzynski, to replace Barry Zito while San Francisco hopes Matt Cain drafts off Zito to develop into the right-handed half of the stud combo that could lift them into contention.

John Danks has won the White Sox's fifth starter job with a terrific spring while Zack Greinke -- back after taking last year off -- has impressed the Royals.

Jon Lester, who will make four rehabilitation starts for the Drive of the Class-A South Atlantic League, has a shot at eventually landing the fifth spot in Boston's starting rotation -- a remarkable comeback from lymphoma.

Mike Pelfrey has won the Mets No. 5 spot and with any consistency should climb their pitching ladder while the Yankees’ youth movement was bolstered by the spring work of Jeff Karstens and Philip Hughes, both of whom have a chance at being in the rotation sometime this summer, but Karstens must get free of some issues with his right elbow.

WILL THE CUBS RESPOND TO THEIR NEW PRESSURE?
No longer lovable losers or Cubbies, the gauntlet was thrown in the first hour after last season ended. New team president John McDonough said the Cubs only goal was to win in 2007. They backed up the words with big spending.

But can Alfonso Soriano live up to his new deal while playing a new position? Can Mark DeRosa thrive as an everyday player? Can Matt Murton, Jacque Jones, and Cliff Floyd produce enough pop from the corner outfield spots?

Also, is there enough pitching depth to withstand the loss of Kerry Wood (opening the season on the DL) and perhaps Mark Prior?

Good news for the Cubs: The NL Central should be so balanced that no team wins 90 games.

WILL THE BRAVES REBOUND?
Winning teams don’t pay much attention to spring, but the vibes coming from Orlando are positive about the Braves.

Their rebuilt bullpen appears strong. Tim Hudson has pitched like the ace he is supposed to be. Chuck James and Kyle Davies appear poised to pick up the rotation slack until Mike Hampton returns, and Chipper Jones is making the sweet sounds of leadership.

The Braves didn’t like losing last year, and I sense some urgency this year with Smoltz turning 40, and Andruw Jones destined to be elsewhere in 2008 because the Braves won't likely meet his price on a new deal.

IS CARL PAVANO, OPENING DAY STARTER, AN OMEN OF AN APOCALYPSE IN NEW YORK?
Mike Mussina publicly challenged Pavano, his competitiveness questioned in a most unseemly manner. Now Pavano's on the spot, especially with injuries hitting the Yankees' rotation.

Can the Yankees, the epitome of professionalism over a decade, respond to this dire strait as well as the yearlong circus sure to surround A-Rod?

Boston seems to have a decided edge in a three-game series with Dice-K, Beckett, and Schilling, but the Yankees have the back-pocket play for Roger Clemens (Wang’s hamstring injury had the NY tabloids shrieking for a Clemens return ASAP).

Boston plugged its biggest hole by shifting Jonathan Papelbon to the bullpen while the Yankees will have a hole that can’t be filled should anything happen to 37-year-old Mariano Rivera.

ARE MORE TEAMS CONVERTED TO THE CHURCH OF THE HOLY CLOSER?
Atlanta and Cleveland had their 2006 seasons ruined by atrocious bullpens. They may be the tests to the new thinking in constructing pitching staffs.

As Bill Madden astutely pointed out this weekend in the New York Daily News, mediocre starters are paid as much as elite closers ($10.5 million for Rivera and Billy Wagner, 11 million for Gil Meche).

By this count, only seven teams can start the year with rock-solid faith in their last man (Rivera, Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, Joe Nathan, B.J. Ryan, Francisco Rodriguez, and Huston Street).

San Francisco appears poised to keep Armando Benitez for lack of any option. Shouldn’t that raise the value more of those who sustain?

Not in baseball’s wacky economic world.

Braves general manager John Schuerholz called last year’s Atlanta bullpen his team’s “fatal flaw.” Why don’t more people value the game’s most important position?

HAS ANYONE SEEN BETTER INFIELDS THAN IN THE NL EAST?
Watching the development of Jose Reyes and David Wright left me believing they would be the best duo in the game for a decade.

This spring, Reyes has been sick, hitting over .400 and showing plenty of power and speed, and he gets this preseason vote as NL MVP.

Yet, how do you overlook the Florida left side? Miguel Cabrera, whose early season totals rival A-Rod at a similar age, and Hanley Ramirez, last year’s rookie phenom seems every bit the equal of the Mets duo.

Then, on the right side, there is the Chase Utley-Ryan Howard combination in Philadelphia.

It does make you wonder how the Braves figure to compete with their right-side duo of Scott Thorman and Kelly Johnson.

And notice how we don’t mention Capt. Jeter and A-Rod.

DOES THE NEW EXTRA INNINGS DEAL MEAN GROWTH FOR MLB.COM?
Unexplained consequence of the new exclusive deal with DirecTV: Any cable customer unable to use DirecTV is left with one option -- watching the package of games on MLB.TV.

Revenue from the web package belongs fully to the clubs. It's not shared with cable operators. As mentioned here often during the winter, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist told me that MLB.com is valued, conservatively, at $5 billion.

No need to wonder about the source of the winter’s free-agent money.

Mar. 22| 9:30 p.m. ET

Just 10 days until the season starts. As the focus in camps is ratcheted towards that goal, we prepare for the annual baseball mantra used by those who stumble out of the gate, “It’s a long season.”

Well, April doesn’t matter much if you’re a prohibitive favorite like the Mets or a team without any expectation like Washington.

But for everyone else in this win-now era, April, May and June matter more than ever. Here are six teams to watch at the season’s first three checkpoints:

APRIL
CHICAGO CUBS
Just one hour after finishing their devastating 2006 season, the Cubs had a new president, the highly regarded John McDonough, who publicly proclaimed the organization’s single-minded focus on winning.

They’ve backed up the talk.

A massive investment in players and new manager Lou Piniella is affirmation that Steve Bartman altered life for this franchise permanently. No longer are the “lovable Cubbies” acceptable as a sideshow in baseball’s best theme park. It’s winning that is demanded, both by the diehard fans and now by management.

One problem: this week’s all-too-familiar headline that “Wood and Prior may open season on DL.”

In an intellectually dishonest rush to bury a fired manager, Chicago media have christened Piniella as the savior and blamed every Cubs ill on last season's skipper Dusty Baker.

They've conveniently ignored that the dynamic Prior-Wood pitching duo tossed 63 innings COMBINED last season, and offensive stud Derrek Lee had 175 at-bats in 2006.

Also conveniently ignored is that Baker managed this franchise to its only consecutive winning seasons in the last 35 years.

Point is that Piniella, a proven winner, will have a short honeymoon. He needs to win fast with a franchise that has no track record, uncertain starting pitching, and a center fielder that has never played the position.

SEATTLE MARINERS
It appears internal expectations are higher than those on the outside (losses the last three years: 99, 93, and 84).

Manager Mike Hargrove and general manager Bill Bavasi were put on notice by ownership in a most public manner over the winter. Hargrove showed the lingering sting by snapping at reporters when the topic was broached on the first day of spring training.

Hard to see where a blistering start can come from. Perhaps a rapid maturation from Felix Hernandez (now mentored by Miguel Batista) or an injection of youth from new DH Jose Vidro could trigger a good April that quiets the storm.

Yet they also sweat out a tender elbow from closer J.J. Putz that has led to an unthinkable action—they are reported to be scouting Armando Benitez!

But this franchise faces a massive long-term question in 2007 -- Can it convince Ichiro to stay? How will Japanese ownership react to the possibility of losing the one true superstar to cross the Pacific?

MAY
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
They can’t catch the Mets if they play uphill all season. The teams only play five games against each other by May 31 so watch the Phillies against the National League to see if they can back up the words of Jimmy Rollins, who says they are the team to beat in their division.

The stakes are high early: Charlie Manuel’s status as manager, Pat Burrell’s final hope to prove he can be a consistent middle-of-the-order threat and not just an all-or-nothing slugger, and the bullpen’s ability to support 39-year-old closer Tom Gordon.

Cracks have appeared in the Mets' façade this spring. Can the Phillies play well early and prevent a replay of the summer of 2006 -- a Mets runaway?

ATLANTA BRAVES
See the first sentence from the Philadelphia section. Mix in the expected resolve of the Braves to reclaim what a generation of players has come to believe is their birthright and you have an entertaining first two months on tap in the National League East.

The Braves and Mets play nine times in the first 48 games thus increased emphasis on Atlanta’s readiness early.

Last season’s early bullpen implosion can’t be repeated, and much of John Schuerholz’s offseason work attempted to insure against such an occurrence.

Of course, the Braves took the risk of jettisoning their right-side starting infield and realize this could be the last season in Atlanta for Andruw Jones.

Extra incentive, it seems, for a strong start and if, on May 31, the Braves are lagging, it could be an agonizing summer.

JUNE
CLEVELAND INDIANS
No shots here at the organization, one of the game’s soundest under a universally respected general manager in Mark Shapiro.

However, like the Cubs, this team now falls victim to the heightened expectations rampant in the game. Toss in the fact that they now compete in the game’s toughest division and their road is clearly challenging.

Their division games are staggered: six early April games against Chicago, five in April and May against Minnesota, and seven in late May against Detroit.

By the time they reach those consecutive weekends against the Tigers, the Indians need to see that of-season work remedied a disastrous bullpen, and that they can compete in a heavyweight division.

NEW YORK YANKEES
This week most of us saw Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time (he looked so much older than the cherub I covered in the 2000 Olympics), and we saw why Boston maxed out in their pursuit of him. He looks deceiving with a high fastball that Hideo Nomo never possessed.

Meanwhile, the Yankees’ import, Kei Igawa, has displayed control problems, and Carl Pavano remains a complete mystery.

The point: Boston seems to have a big edge in starting pitching as the season begins. (The Clemens saga notwithstanding).

Will there be an extra urgency with the Yankees this summer?

Here’s the list of Yankees in their final contract year: Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Joe Torre, and perhaps Alex Rodriguez. If all isn’t smooth sailing in the Bronx by late June, general manager Brian Cashman may be squeezed (remember the owner is 77 in July and widely believed to be ailing) to make drastic moves.

Mar. 15| 5:00 p.m. ET

Tackling some spring myths in a week of March Madness.

MYTH: BARRY BONDS WILL RETIRE AFTER BREAKING AARON’S RECORD IN 2007
This week Bonds made public what others knew he had said privately. He will play in 2008. The Giants say it won’t be for them, and it’s unlikely that the 43-year-old Bonds would find a National League team to sign him. DH life is in his sights, and Bonds has designs on achieving this combination: 3,000 hits and 800 homers.

MYTH: IMPROVED TESTING HAS ERADICATED THE BALCO PROBLEM FROM BASEBALL
Commissioner Bud Selig and MLB will face this issue indefinitely. Each month seems to bring new revelations, often unseemly, and the harsh light that baseball lives under now shines on HGH.

Let’s not be naïve and think that HGH is unique to baseball, but the higher standard that baseball endures now claims Gary Matthews Jr. The Angels were firm that Matthews needed to make a statement. On Wednesday, Matthews issued a carefully crafted legal statement that failed to answer the central question of the last two weeks: Did he buy HGH?

This blog mentioned in January that so much new information would come to light in years ahead that Mark McGwire will eventually be forgiven. That path is starting.

MYTH: ALEX RODRIGUEZ WOULD FIND PEACE ON THE FIELD THIS SPRING
Now Mike Schmidt chimes in that he sympathizes with A-Rod’s plight as the unloved superstar. Schmidt endured an erratic relationship with Phillies fans, but there is nothing wobbly in New York for A-Rod.

That's not likely to change without a World Series while A-Rod is in pinstripes. Nor do his comments such as “I’m the same guy as in Seattle, saying the same things. Nothing’s changed,” help his stance with the New York fans.

They want results, not words.

MYTH: OAKLAND BEST AT DOING MORE WITH LESS
Yes, the Athletics have had an amazing run in this decade with limited payrolls, but the New York Times pointed out in a timely Sunday column that Minnesota has actually had lower payrolls in eight of the last 15 seasons.

As good as Oakland general manager Billy Beane has been, the quiet star of American League GM’s is Minnesota's Terry Ryan. He proves it can still be done the “old school” way.

Minnesota relies on traditional baseball methodology with a nod to statistical analysis. Beane will tell you the A’s aren’t wedded to numbers, but they lean on the “moneyball” approach.

No worries for baseball as it’s healthy to see success achieved in both ways.

NOT MYTHS, JUST OBSERVATIONS...
One rite of spring for a serious fan is perusing the spring box scores in USA Today and seeing names in new and strange places.

Roger Cedeno, out of the game in 2006, trying to make Baltimore at a reported weight of 260 pounds. Ruben Sierra, inspired by the ageless Julio Franco, in camp with the Mets. Darin Erstad playing center field in his resurrection spring with the White Sox, and one of the decade’s true gamers, Joe McEwing, trying to win a job with the Red Sox.

Then there are the injury rehabs: Eric Gagne finally pitching in a game for Texas, Armando Benitez, who must be traded for the Giants to be serious about contending, auditioning his healed knees in two outings, Bobby Crosby who has just started taking live batting practice, and Jim Edmonds, unlikely to start the regular season after a pair of cleanup offseason surgeries.

Mar. 8| 10:00 p.m. ET

Hope resonates throughout spring baseball. We hear of each team’s prize prospects and how the team’s hopes revolve around the development of the Alex Gordons and Troy Tulowitzkis.

Here, though, we take an admittedly calloused look at the real spring. Those players, who have surpassed hope, accepted the accompanying rewards and now have the hopes of their teams dependant on them.

These are not those who hope to be good -- these are the players who BETTER BE GOOD.

JASON VARITEK
At 35, is he starting to show a catcher’s mortality? The Red Sox best hope not, for it is hard to fathom that Varitek’s game calling and catching expertise weren’t a major factor in the Daisuke Matsuzaka signing.

Boston needs far more than the 103 games in which Varitek appeared in 2006.

TIM HUDSON
His trade/signing with Atlanta warranted the first chapter of general manager's John Schuerholz’s book. So, a 13-12 record, and 4.86 ERA is not acceptable.

To Hudson’s credit, he has been mostly healthy in Atlanta, defying a common wisdom of fragility from his Oakland years.

But the GM’s book makes it clear- Hudson was signed to be the new leader of Atlanta’s staff, to follow the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz years as the ace. As the team tries to rebuild amidst ownership transition and uncertain payroll, Hudson must be the man Atlanta needs.

BARRY ZITO
This selection is psychic as much as strategic. Few will give the Giants much hope in an improving NL West. On paper, it is hard to see how they are much improved from Opening Day 2006.

So Zito, signed as the future face of the franchise, becomes the litmus test for 2007. In a year where the All-Star Game visits San Francisco and Barry Bonds should make history, Zito must show all that his contract was of sound mind by the Giants.

He sets the tone for their looming post-Bonds era.

PAT BURRELL
Three years ago, Bobby Abreu-Jim Thome-Burrell was the NL’s best hitting trio. But even with that offensive anchor, the Phillies played zero postseason games.

Only Burrell remains, and that was in doubt if you believe winter rumblings. He must rebound to save his career and the Phillies’ hopes of overtaking the Mets.

How could Burrell have taken a major-league leading 63 called third strikes last year?

BOBBY ABREU
Players claim it was coincidence that the Phils played their best ball of 2006 after Abreu went to New York. And, despite Abreu’s strong performance, the Yankees failed in the post-season.

Now Gary Sheffield and Bernie Williams are gone from the Bronx. Abreu is the main reason. He must replace Sheffield’s production and deprive hardcore Yankee fans from any reason to mourn the absence of Williams.

MARK PRIOR
We forget he is only 26. We remember that only once has he made 30 starts or reached 170 innings in a season. That must change.

Kerry Wood is a reliever and Carlos Zambrano may be headed to a Zito-like payday. For the Cubs to fulfill their one-year dream of last-to-first and justify the massive payroll, Prior must regain his 2003 form.

TOM GLAVINE
His personal march to 300 wins now collides with his unexpected position as ace of the Mets staff. Pedro Martinez is unlikely to contribute this year and El Duque battles continued physical ails, thus Glavine starts on Opening Day and is the fulcrum of an unsettled rotation.

Whether it’s the arrival of young hopes like Philip Humber, John Maine or Mike Pelfrey or rebirth from Oliver Perez or Chan Ho Park, the Mets rotation will be a work in progress all year.

Glavine must be their rock.

CARLOS SILVA
Quiz: Who won the AL Central last year? Surprise -- Minnesota. Forgotten in the aftermath of a Tigers' pennant was the Twins regular-season excellence. But like the Cubs, injury has hammered the Twins' hopes.

Francisco Liriano rehabs this year and the easiest replacement would be a rebound year from Silva. Some suspect the World Baseball Classic as short-circuiting his 2006. But young starters Boof Bonser, Matt Garza and Scott Baker need time, which they will get if Silva assumes the No. 2 spot in the rotation.

JASON SCHMIDT
On paper, the Dodgers have smothering depth in starting pitching. Look closer, however, and you see that Brad Penny was a non-factor in the second half, Randy Wolf is still rebounding from surgery, and Chad Billingsley is 22.

If all comes together, the Dodgers rival Arizona in their rotation. But Schmidt was signed, like Hudson, to be the man. His numbers in every quality category, except innings, outshine Barry Zito over the last three years.

That’s what the Dodgers need in 2007.

JOE BOROWSKI
Cleveland has terrific offense. And their general manager, Mark Shapiro, is well regarded. When he acts, people notice. And what did Shapiro attack in the off-season? Cleveland’s bullpen.

The Indians starting ERA was third in the AL; the bullpen’s ERA was 11th. Shapiro went for strength in numbers, signing Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Fultz to bridge for Borowski and Keith Foulke. Except Foulke retired on the eve of Winter Haven.

So, to start, the closer’s job goes to Borowski, and with it may ride the hopes for Cleveland to compete in a brutal division.

RICH HARDEN/MIKE PIAZZA
Can’t separate these two for their importance to Oakland’s hopes of repeating (see Minnesota above). Yes, the A’s won the West and let their best pitcher (Zito) and hitter (Frank Thomas) walk. Nothing new in that scenario.

The replacements must fill in much of the gap for Oakland to repeat. Harden is like Prior, young, ridiculously talented, and maddeningly fragile. He can’t be Zito in durability, but if he stays healthy enough to take 30 starts, he can blow away Zito’s numbers.

Piazza can’t match Thomas’ power (39 HR, 114 RBI), but he must deliver some punch as he adapts to his newfound hitting-only life. The Padres felt life remained in Piazza’s bat and Billy Beane agreed, signing the veteran to an un-Oakland-like $8.5 million deal.

RAY DURHAM
What? Well, he who bats behind Bonds better be good. And even with Bruce Bochy trying to convince Bonds to once again bat third (Bonds has never wanted to bat third, in fact, he used to claim he should hit fifth. Go figure), Durham will hit cleanup.

The Giants allowed Jeff Kent to walk, replaced him with Moises Alou, let Alou leave, and after failing to land Carlos Lee, re-signed Durham. Who doesn’t belong in that sentence?

Durham had a terrific second half (contract push?), but will never be confused with the other power hitters mentioned. Yet, the Giants need him to hit so that opposing teams don’t lapse into an automatic walk parade if Bonds hits a few homers.

AND SOME OTHERS
Joel Piniero, Boston. Is he the closer they seek?

Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis. Can he be the closer again and allow Adam Wainwright to start?

Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland. The Indians invested heavily in their long-term shortstop. He bombed in year one.

Juan Pierre, Los Angeles. Why has this man moved so much? Can he be the catalyst as he was in Florida?

Kip Wells, St. Louis. (See Carlos Silva). Can he replace Jeff Suppan as a steady presence behind Chris Carpenter?

Mar. 1| 7:00 p.m. ET

You know the cable show where a bald guy lumbers around the set, eyes bulging out of their sockets, arms flailing like a scarecrow and voice screaming at us about the virtues of investing.

Somehow I envision that as the actions of several general managers during this past winter when contracts like Gil Meche’s with the Royals (five years at $55 million) were signed.

Talk about Mad Money.

How precisely does it occur that Meche will earn more this year than the greatest closer in baseball history, Mariano Rivera?

Mad Money.

Why is there an annual debate over the merits of Hall-of-Fame worthiness for starters who were good but never dominate while great closers are ignored?

Listen to Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa talk about Adam Wainwright, “He got the final out with the bases loaded in both the LCS and World Series. To me, that is special.”

Where is Wainwright this spring? In the starting rotation.

So this has become baseball’s biggest debate in 2007: top flight starters vs. dominant closers.

Money was tossed freely at Meche, Ted Lilly, Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, Vicente Padilla, and Adam Eaton as some clubs looked to fortify their rotations. Reasons vary for these signings. Kansas City, for example, is trying to establish credibility with future free agents.

But I think the wisest general managers followed the lead of the New York Mets, who won 97 games last season despite mediocre starting pitching (8th in the NL). Mets general manager Omar Minaya, though, had compiled a deep bullpen that, by year’s end, had pitched the second-most innings and posted the league’s best ERA.

In fact, the top three NL teams in RELIEF ERA were New York (1st in wins), San Diego (2nd in wins) and Philadelphia (4th in wins.) I think that is no longer a coincidence.

Neither does John Schuerholz. The legendary Braves general manager saw his team’s historic divisional championship run ended largely due to a faulty bullpen (a NL-high 29 blown saves).

So Schuerholz re-signed mid-season acquisition Bob Wickman as closer, and traded for Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano as setup men.

Cleveland’s Mark Shapiro emulated the Mets as well, importing Joe Borowski and Keith Foulke (since retired) as closers, and Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Fultz in the setup roles.

Look at Baltimore where Jim Duquette and Mike Flanagan fortified their bullpen with extreme signings in Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker and Danys Baez (all to three-year deals, unheard of for specialty/setup relievers) along with Scott Williamson, all to try and get games to closer Chris Ray.

There were other stunning signings: Justin Speier (4 years at 18 million) with the Angels and the ageless Mike Stanton received two guaranteed years from Cincinnati, another team compiling bullpen strength in numbers until closer Eddie Guardado returns from last season’s elbow surgery.

I see this as a trend. Specialization of the bullpen, started by Tony LaRussa 20 years ago, is now widely practiced. And, judging by the above examples is now being rewarded.

The 2006 Mets may be remembered as cementing that trend, earning lucrative contracts for journeymen like Bradford and Darren Oliver. And, by the way, Minaya is back at the same game for 2007, acquiring Ambiorix Burgos from Kansas City, along with signing Scott Schoeneweis and Jorge Sosa.

The debate will rage. But ask yourself this: Without Mariano Rivera, is there a chance the Yankees would have 12 straight years (10 with him as closer) in postseason play?

Without Trevor Hoffman, is there a chance the San Diego Padres would have four NL West titles in the last 10 years?

Switching topics, some final words on the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee voting which this week added no new members to the game' shrine.

Reading reaction from our BBWAA brethren across the country would have one believe that a felonious act was committed.

A USA Today columnist was apoplectic over Ron Santo’s plight while the esteemed Dave Anderson used his New York Times column to outline suggested changes to the Veterans Committee process.

Excuse the cliché but have such comments ever come from within such a glass house?

The HOF voting bloc is now filled with writers who have NEVER covered a season of baseball, a fact noted beautifully by Bruce Jenkins in the San Francisco Chronicle of January 18.

Anderson suggests that the Veterans Committee vote be divided by generation, a notion that should have been long ago employed by the BBWAA.

Gene Wojciechowski wonders if the Veterans Committee members have “bronze for brains.”

Rob Neyer takes a more dignified approach in questioning how often Harmon Killebrew actually saw Ron Santo play? Fair question, but it ignores the simple truth that for 15 years, the BBWAA members, who likely did see Santo play, failed to elect him.

Phil Rogers printed the most sensible analysis that I saw. Writing in the Chicago Tribune, he supported Santo’s candidacy (as do I), but immediately mentioned that he and other players already had a 15-year review process on the HOF ballot.

Those shortchanged are the executives, managers, and umpires, a fact acknowledged by Joe Morgan.

If there is room for change, that group should be judged by those most familiar with their work. In the absurdly hysterical USA Today column, Morgan’s quote about being unqualified to judge the merits of executives appeared.

But left out was his other notable quote, “Writers voted on these guys for 15 years? Why are we being criticized for not electing anyone the last six years?”

That is a question that begs an answer.

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