Ken Davis

For the past month the easiest part of projecting the top seeds for the upcoming NCAA Tournament has been the top line.

Duke moved down and then up again, both in public opinion and in the seeding process. Boston College surged and then fell. Georgetown got hot and positioned itself for a possible No. 2 seed. Oregon’s popularity has dropped like that of a lame duck president. Southern Illinois emerged as this season’s cult favorite, moving higher this late in the season than any mid-major in memory. Could the Salukis really be a No. 3 seed?

You get the point. The movement below the top line has been as unpredictable as this week’s trading of the Dow Jones industrials.

On the other hand, Florida, UCLA, North Carolina and Wisconsin had been steady and reliable when it came to forecasting the No. 1 seeds. Had been. Suddenly, with Selection Sunday (March 11) coming into sight, that no longer is the case.

Florida, Wisconsin and North Carolina lost last weekend (the Heels did so again on Wednesday), the polls have been rearranged, and now there seems to be a shortage of sure things. Less than a month ago, we said the conference tournaments could weigh heavier on the seeding process than ever before. That may have been an understatement. What happens next week in the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, SEC and Big East tournaments will determine how things shake out.

Here’s what we can say with confidence right now: UCLA will be a No. 1 seed and the Bruins appear to be the No. 1 seed overall. UCLA could finish 16-2 in the Pac-10 and that’s really saying something this season.

Florida doesn’t receive any special consideration as the defending national champion. In fact, back-to-back losses to LSU and Tennessee mean the Gators have their work cut out for them. It seems complacency — that personality disorder that Florida fought off for so long — is finally taking its toll on the Gators. Joakim Noah seems to have lost his edge and Florida’s guards have lost their shooting touch. The Gators have the talent to repeat, but do they have the mental toughness?

A case could be built for Kansas, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Georgetown and Pittsburgh becoming No. 1 seeds — if everything goes right between now and March 11. Just a week ago that type of competition didn’t seem possible.

Ohio State has positioned itself very well for a No. 1 seed by defeating Wisconsin. The injury to Brian Butch is a setback for the Badgers. But the Buckeyes can’t relax until Wisconsin is eliminated from the Big Ten tournament.

Kansas is playing as well as any team in the nation. The Jayhawks, thanks to Texas beating Texas A&M on Wednesday, could win the Big 12 regular season title outright with a victory over the Longhorns Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse. In fact, if the Jayhawks hadn’t let their lead slip away in the final four minutes Feb. 3 against the Aggies , it would be difficult to ignore them on the top line right now.

Special feature Projecting top seeds for March Madness

Kansas coach Bill Self says it’s natural at this stage of the season to become anxious about seeds.

“I’m not sure there’s much difference between a 1 and a 2, except maybe the exposure it brings your program,” Self said Thursday. “I don’t know what we are. I think there’s a great chance we can help ourselves a lot, by playing well Saturday and next week. And there’s also a great chance we could hurt ourselves quite a bit by not finishing strong.

“So we’ve got a lot to play for. If you had told me after that A&M game that we’d be in this position, I would have said, ‘We’re going to have to really turn it up a notch.’ Fortunately we have for the most part.”

INTERACTIVE Durant reaches No. 1, but for how long?

Florida won the national championship last year as a No. 3 seed. In fact, none of the No. 1 seeds — Duke, Memphis, UConn and Villanova — made it to Indianapolis. The Final Four included a No. 2 seed (UCLA), a No. 4 seed (LSU), and a No. 11 seed (George Mason).

The 2005 national championship game featured two No. 1 seeds as North Carolina beat Illinois for the crown. But that Final Four also included a No. 4 seed (Louisville) and a No. 5 seed (Michigan State). Over the past 10 years, the lowest seeded team to win the national championship was Arizona in 1997. Lute Olson’s team was a No. 4 seed and beat three No. 1 seeds (Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky) on the way to the title.

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In that 10-year span, five No. 1 seeds won it all. In addition to North Carolina in 2005, UConn, Michigan State, Duke and Maryland were champions in consecutive years from 1999-2002. In 2004, when UConn won the title as a No. 2 seed, the Huskies led an impressive charge by the 2 seeds, who posted a 12-3 record in that year’s tournament. The No. 1 seeds were 9-4 that year.

If there is one obvious advantage of being a No. 1 seed, it comes in the first round. A No. 16 seed has never defeated a No.1 seed. Drop down to the No. 2 line and there have been four upsets by No. 15 seeds in the first round.

“Once you get in the tournament, the key is getting started and getting that first game under your belt,” said Texas coach Rick Barnes, whose Longhorns were a No. 1 seed and lost to eventual national champion Syracuse (a No. 3 seed) in the 2003 national semifinals. “You look at a 1 playing an 8 or 9 [in the second round] and who’s an 8/9? Those are teams that normally come out of pretty big leagues and have played tough competition. On any given night, anything can happen. And from there it keeps moving.

“I’m not sure the seeds matter that much. The one thing you know is that the house is always going to pull for the dark jerseys. People want to see the underdog do well.”

Speaking of underdogs, how about the Memphis Tigers?

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