Dan O'Neill

And so the question is, as bats and balls spill from duffel bags and major league baseball convenes once more, who are the St. Louis Cardinals?

Are they the 2006 Cardinals who went 11-5 in October, toppled the favored New York Mets, deposed the Cinderella Tigers and stunned the sports world by winning a world championship? Or, are they the 2006 Cardinals that nearly eclipsed the 1964 Phillies for stretch-run collapses, that won just 83 games and joined the postseason party only by the beak of the birds on their bats?

The answer, ladies and gents, is contained in the explanation for how those two diverse teams could co-exist on the same calendar, worlds apart yet joined at the hip. The answer will be in the effectiveness of the starting pitching staff.

Especially poor in the second half, the Cardinals had a staff earned-run average of 4.54 during the 2006 season. That turned into 2.68 during the postseason. Do you see the correlation with mediocrity and success?

With one notable exception, you will not recognize the 2007 Cardinals pitching rotation. With one notable exception, integral parts to last year’s Octoberfest are missing, shorn like Britney Spear’s locks, gone like Mike Krzyzewski’s invincibility.

Jeff Weaver, winner of three postseason games, including the World Series-clinching Game 5, is in Seattle. It remains to be seen if he will be sleepless.

Jeff Suppan, winner of 44 regular-season games and three postseason games for St. Louis over the past three seasons, is in Milwaukee. It remains to be seen if he will be, like cold beer and motorcycles, among “Milwaukee’s finest.”

Jason Marquis, winner of 42 Cardinals games over the past three seasons, is in Chicago. It remains to be seen how he fits into the “Friendly Confines.” Even Mark Mulder, absent during the postseason magic but a fixture in the rotation to start last season, will not be ready come Opening Day. Rebounding from shoulder surgery, Mulder won’t be available until the second half.

Make no mistake, manager Tony La Russa’s lineup card will be better than the one he took to the plate last April. Former Angel Adam Kennedy will be at second base, a .280 career hitter, a far cry better than the Aaron Miles-Hector Luna platoon that started last year.

Third baseman Scott Rolen is stronger and healthier than last spring, when he was coming off major shoulder surgery. Outfielder Chris Duncan was not even on radar when the team headed north in ’06. But after batting .293 with 22 home runs in 280 at-bats during the second half last season, Duncan is a prominent piece of the picture for 2007.

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That said, with one notable exception, the Cardinals pitching rotation is like a Federico Fellini movie, a conglomerate of strange images and obscure figures, a melting pot of unheralded veterans, unproven prospects and bullpen converts.

The notable exception, of course, is Chris Carpenter, who has been the best starter in the National League over the past two seasons. Carpenter has won 36 games and one Cy Young (2005) during that time. He is working on a changeup this spring, adding one more weapon to a devastating arsenal. He is a solid foundation for any staff.

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“I expect to go out, have a good year and do the same stuff I’ve been doing,” Carpenter said after a recent workout. “I’ve prepared myself well. I feel strong. My expectations haven’t changed. I want to be better than last year. I think I can be. My workload hasn’t changed. I don’t plan on it changing.”

Things have changed drastically around him, however. A year ago the members of the Opening Day rotation carried 66 starting wins over from a 100-win 2005 season. This time, Carpenter and Anthony Reyes represent 20 starting wins from last season. No one else in the competition for starting roles had a single starting win for the club last year.

The Chicago Cubs spent $40 million to secure Ted Lilly and $21 million to get Marquis. The Brewers signed Suppan away from the Cardinals for $42 million. The Astros signed Woody Williams and gave up Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz and center fielder Willy Tavarez to get starter Jason Jennings from Colorado.

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Meanwhile, the Cardinals shopped at the Dollar Store. They signed Wells for one year and $4 million, and Ryan Frankin for one year and $1 million. Wells won a total of two games for the Pirates and Rangers last season. Franklin won six games, all as a reliever for the Phillies and Reds.

Another starting candidate is Braden Looper, who has 34 career bullpen wins. He has never started a game in his nine major league seasons. Brad Thompson has one start in 83 major league appearances. Adam Wainright was a postseason hero last year, subbing for closer Jason Isringhausen. He has appeared in 62 major league games without a start. Reyes had five wins and a 5.06 ERA last year.

The Cardinals are last year’s world champions and this year’s pitching science experiment. But pitching coach and project manager Dave Duncan is not the least bit concerned — at least not for public consumption.

“That doesn't bother me,” Duncan said. “I think we’re deep. I think there's a lot of talent. I like the talent we have to work with.”

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