Dave Martin / AP file

Kasey Kahne has both momentum and the success of Evernham Motorsports cars at intermediate tracks going for him in Sunday's Nextel Cup race at California Speedway, writes Johnny Benson of MSNBC.com.

Johnny Benson

There have been 11 different winners in the 13 Nextel Cup events at California Speedway, site of this Sunday's second race of the season.

I don't see the number climbing to 12 as my pick to get to Victory Lane is Kasey Kahne, who won at California on Labor Day weekend last year.

I expect Kahne's toughest competition at the two-mile oval to come from Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart.

One slight advantage Stewart has over Kahne and Kenseth is his team will not be missing any personnel for the race.

Kenseth's crew chief Robbie Reiser, and Kahne's crew chief Kenny Francis were suspended for four races and fined $50,000 each for violations discovered during qualifying inspections prior to the Daytona 500. Additionally, Kenseth and Kahne were were docked 50 points each.

But despite being without Francis, Kahne is still my favorite to prevail over the 250 laps that will be run.

Working in Kahne's favor
Kahne drives for Evernham Motorsports, which fields good cars on intermediate tracks (those of a mile-and-half and two-miles).

A year ago Evernham Motorsports ran three cars in the two California Cup races, and their average start was 10.2, and their average finish 13.7.

Kahne has an impressive career average finish of 11th at California, and he has an even better career average start (8.7) at this venue.

He will start in the front row as he was second in qualifying to pole winner Jeff Gordon.

In addition to leading 130 laps on the way to his win at California last September (he also won the Busch race that weekend), Kahne ran well in this race a year ago finishing fourth.

In his six Cup starts at this West Coast stop, he has three top-fives and four top-10s. He also captured the pole for the May 2, 2004 race.

The Enumclaw, Wash. native will have momentum as well as he is coming off his best-ever finish (7th) at Daytona. The No. 9 Dodge is not a car you want to bet against at California.

Other drivers to watch
Kenseth won this race a year ago. In 10 Cup races at California, Kenseth's average finish is 11.6. He has six top-10s at this layout and also three Busch Series wins.

Stewart, who had engine woes in this race last year, has never won at California despite some impressive runs. In 11 Cup events at this oval, the two-time series champion has five top-10s, and three top-fives.

Stewart will be in the same chassis that won three of the last eight races last season. That could very well mean he could score his first win at California, one of only four tracks on the Cup circuit where he has not been to Victory Lane.

In five Cup starts at California, Carl Edwards has four top-fives and five top-10s. He has never finished worse than sixth at this two-mile track. Last year in his two races at this venue he placed third and fourth. I certainly feel Edwards will be in the hunt for a win on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson runs so consistently well that it's hard not to mention him as a top contender in any race. He's definitely that at California where he won this race in 2002, and has finished second in this event the last three years.

I see at least a top-five result for Johnson, who at Daytona last week lost control in Turn 2 and triggered a multi-car rash. The defending Cup champion wound up finishing 39th.

Last year Dale Earnhardt Jr. was 11th in this race, and second at California in the Labor Day weekend event. I think Junior will run in the top 10 on Sunday, but not in the top five as he and his team are still trying to figure out the intermediate tracks, where at times he's be extremely fast, and at other times he's struggled a bit.

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Kyle Busch followed up his win at California on Sept. 4, 2005 with finishes of 10th and eighth last year at this venue. I believe Kyle will run in the top 10 on Sunday, and he'll have a shot at the win.

At Daytona last week two cars from Richard Childress Racing were outstanding. Kevin Harvick in the No. 29 won the race, and Jeff Burton in the No. 31 crossed the checkers third.

I don't know if Burton will be a threat to win at California, but I do feel he'll run in the top 10. Harvick's best finish at this oval was sixth in this race two years ago, but I figure him to have a solid shot at getting to Victory Lane on Sunday.

Jeff Gordon is the only driver with multiple wins (3) at California, and he has six top-10s in 12 Cups starts at this track. Keep an eye on him although I don't see him winning the 500-mile test.