Jim McCabe

Is it possible that six equals eight and also 11?

When a legend-in-progress named Tiger Woods is involved, that’s a mathematical equation that makes sense.

Perplexing? Perhaps at first, but follow along.

If Woods wins six matches at this week’s WGC Match Play Championship, it will mean eight straight PGA Tour victories, which translates into a record-tying 11 in a row. How do we jump from eight direct to 11, thus matching a record established by Byron Nelson 62 years ago?

Well, it’s based on the assumption that the toughest challenge ahead for Woods is at his doorstep: the match play event. The stroke-play tournaments that will follow — Arnold Palmer’s gathering at Bay Hill, the CA Championship at Doral, and that annual spring fling at Augusta National — are going to be easier.

So he’s a lock at the stroke-play events? Not exactly, but he’s a great bet. Consider that he’s won four times at Bay Hill, twice at Doral, and four more at Augusta, combining at those sites for a 10-for-24 effort as a pro that crunches into a .416 winning clip.

Conversely, Woods has won the Match Play twice in seven tries, a .286 batting average.

Granted, Woods is the greatest match-play competitor of his generation, arguably the best ever, with all due respect to Bobby Jones and Walter Hagen. His six straight summers of unmatched success in U.S. Golf Association head-to-head play — three U.S. Junior Amateurs, three U.S. Amateurs — established him as a very special player before he turned pro, and while the critics have gone out of their way to pin Ryder Cup failures on him, the truth is he’s 3-1-1 in pure singles play in that biennial event.

But match play is still a tougher format for him to dominate for this reason: On any given day, there’s a long list of world-class players who are capable of outplaying Woods. Look no further than last fall’s HSBC World Match Play outside of London, when Shaun Micheel took down Woods.

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Match play simply doesn’t provide the one crucial aspect that a stroke-play event does: the built-in comfort zone of a rally.

For a reference point, go to the 2002 Match Play, when Woods started horribly in his first-round match and fell behind unheralded Peter O’Malley. Though he played well later in his round, Woods had spotted the Aussie too big a lead and ran out of holes. It’s the only time he has been ousted in Round 1; he’s lost in Round 2 once (to Nick O’Hern), in Round 3 once (to Chad Campbell), in the quarterfinals once (to Jeff Maggert), and in that 2000 final against Darren Clarke.

His astounding success in stroke-play events has followed a formula that goes something like this:

Slide show Woods' world As these images show, there’s more to Tiger Woods than simply golf more photos

Start solidly Thursday, hang around in contention Friday, vault into the lead Saturday, then flash grit and incomparable fortitude Sunday. It’s a blueprint that isn’t necessarily transferable to match play, particularly 18-hole match play, which is why his historic trek from seven to 11 will meet speed bumps at No. 8 (Match Play) that won’t be there at Nos. 9 (Bay Hill), 10 (Doral), and 11 (Augusta).

J.J. Henry is a tough draw right off the bat at the Accenture, a long-hitter with good pedigree in match play. Given his surprisingly solid play as a rookie in last year’s Ryder Cup, Henry should have the necessary confidence to meet a Woods challenge at a course — the Gallery Golf Club at Dove Mountain, which sounds more like a shopping mall, but whatever — that is virtually unknown to all competitors.

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