ANALYSIS

By Richard Rosenblatt

updated 9:52 a.m. ET Feb. 15, 2007

NEW YORK - It’s been quite a wonderful winter for Bill Kaplan.

The South Florida-based trainer is flying high these days with a trio of 3-year-olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby. His latest prospect is Imawildandcrazyguy, who finished second to Notional in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans this past Saturday.

“I thought he ran fantastic,” Kaplan said of his gray gelding who was 2¼ lengths behind the winner and a head in front of Zanjero. “He was in very tight quarters in the race, but he closed well when he got clear and he came out of the race very well.”

Kaplan’s other Derby hopefuls are Drums of Thunder, runner-up in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park behind top Derby contender Nobiz Like Shobiz, and Storm in May, winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash last month.

While Kaplan’s horses are showing promise, little changed this week in the AP’s Run to the Roses’ Top 10 — Notional moves in at No. 8, Drums of Thunder is No. 9.

The Risen Star produced a scare when Slew’s Tizzy clipped heels and dumped his rider right in front of favorite Circular Quay, who was pulled up sharply at the top of the stretch and had no chance to win although he finished fifth. Imawildandcrazyguy was steered clear of trouble by jockey Fernando Jara.

The result left Kaplan — a former accountant and owner of a private airline — feeling good about Imawildandcrazyguy, who won two of eight starts as a 2-year-old. Next up is the Louisiana Derby on March 10.

“It’s great to have just one top 3-year-old,” Kaplan said before the Holy Bull. “To have three at the same time is unbelievable.”

Drums of Thunder, with four wins in nine career starts, likely will run in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on March 3.

Dropping out of the Top 10 were Dreaming of Anna, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner who was third in the Old Hat Stakes, and Stormello.

Summer Doldrums, winner of the Whirlaway; Noble Court, who took Sunday’s San Vicente; and Imawildandcrazyguy move into the “keep an eye on” category.

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The opening four-day pool of the Kentucky Derby wager closed Sunday with the mutuel field the 5-2 favorite. Of the 23 individual betting interests, Nobiz Like Shobiz was the 8-1 choice.

Three Derby preps are on tap Saturday, including the Sam F. Davis Stakes, which is expected to feature trainer Todd Pletcher’s Any Given Saturday.

The Derby is May 5.

The contenders
1. Nobiz Like Shobiz (Barclay Tagg, trainer; Cornelio Velasquez, jockey): Tagg on Derby trail for third time, and this time he has early favorite. ... Bay colt has won 3-of-4, and did not run in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. ... Next start: Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream, March 3) or Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, March 10). ... Derby future odds: 8-1.

2. Street Sense (Carl Nafzger, Calvin Borel): Scheduled for two preps before Derby, the Hutcheson and the Blue Grass. .... Last Derby winner off two preps was Sunny’s Halo in 1983. ... Worked 4 furlongs in 49.40 at Palm Meadows on Monday. ... Next start: Hutcheson (Gulfstream, March3). ... Odds: 10-1.

3. Great Hunter (Doug O’Neill, Victor Espinoza): Worked 6 furlongs in 1:13.40 Monday at Hollywood Park’s all-weather track. ... Next start: Robert Lewis (Santa Anita, March 3). ... Odds: 24-1.

4. Hard Spun (Larry Jones, Mario Pino): Trainer’s first colt on Derby trail. ...Unbeaten Pennsylvania-bred worked 5 furlongs in 59.00 at Oaklawn Park on Monday. ... Next start: Southwest (Oaklawn, Feb. 19). ... Odds: 10-1.

5. Scat Daddy (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Needs big effort next time out to remain top contender. ... fourth in BC Juvenile, third in 3-year-old debut in Holy Bull. ... Next start: Undecided. ... Odds: 44-1.

6. Ravel (Pletcher, Garrett Gomez): Made successful transition from synthetic surface to dirt with Sham win. ... Next start: Robert Lewis (March 3) or San Felipe (Santa Anita, March 17). ... Odds: 11-1.

7. Circular Quay (Pletcher, Velazquez): Despite near fall in stretch, colt still bounced back and finished fifth in Risen Star. ... Next start: Louisiana Derby (March 10). ... Odds: 12-1.

8. Notional (O’Neill, Robby Albarado): Avoided trouble and won Risen Star by 2 1/4 lengths. ... Also won San Rafael last month. ... Next start: San Felipe (March 17). ... Odds: 27-1.

9. Drums of Thunder (Bill Kaplan, Manoel Cruz) .... Finishing second to Nobiz Like Shobiz in Holy Bull not a disgrace. ... May be best of trainer’s three Derby chances. ... Next start: Fountain of Youth (March 3). ... Odds: 41-1.

10. Came to Pass (Tom Albertrani, Edgar Prado): Bred to run long, as in 1¼-mile Derby distance. ... Gives Sheik Mohammed’s Darley Stable legit prospect. ... Next start: Undecided. ... Odds: 5-2 (mutuel field).

KEEP AN EYE ON: Imawildandcrazyguy, Liquidity, Noble Court, Stormello, Summer Doldrums.

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