And if Rex the Wonderdog shows up instead of Super Rex, it could be a long evening for the Bears. But I think the Colts’ defense is going to play into his hands.

Indianapolis has made no secret of its determination to stop the Bears’ running game to force Grossman to win the game. The Bears have an outstanding coaching staff, and they are aware of what the Colts will do; if they were playing themselves, that’s what they would do, too.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears come out running play-action to suck the Colts’ cover men and linebackers in and then throwing to the vacated areas underneath. It’s a way to get Grossman into the game early, and if he hits some short passes and moves the chains, he’ll just get better and the Colts are going to be on their heels. Despite all the criticism Grossman has taken, he’s got a great arm and is capable of big plays. If he gets in a rhythm, that could happen.

And getting into a rhythm may be easier than it sounds. The Colts don’t like to blitz a lot, trusting their front four to get pressure on the passer. But the Bears offensive line is a big and capable unit. If they slow down the rush and give Rex time in the pocket, the Colts could find that the Bears offense is way better than advertised.

SUPER BOWL XLI MATCHUPS Compare Bears, Colts projected starters

Eventually, the Bears will run the ball, and they should run it a lot. The Colts’ defense is fast but somewhat undersized. By late in the third quarter, the Bears’ big front line should start wearing down the Colts and opening up holes for running backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. Assuming that they will have forced some turnovers and made a big play on special teams, they should have the lead.

Manning is the best quarterback in the game — maybe the best ever — and the most dangerous man in the game coming from behind, but if the Bears are running the ball effectively — and by the fourth quarter they will be — he’s not going to see the ball as the Bears eat up clock against a worn-down defense.

It’s not nearly as long a shot as the bookies — and Borges — say it is. The Bears can win this game, and, it says here, they will win it.