Mike Celizic

MIAMI - Any time you see a proposition that looks too good to be true, it might be because it is. Take the Colts, for example. According to the odds makers and most of the experts who make a living predicting the outcomes of games that can’t be predicted, they can’t lose Super Bowl XLI, and anybody who tells you differently would benefit from a thorough psychiatric evaluation.

I guess that means it’s time for me to price out long-term padded-room rentals, because I not only think the Colts can lose, I also think they will lose to da Bears. I have reasons for saying that even aside from the fact that my colleague Ron Borges is picking the Colts.

Before I go into the nuts and bolts of how Chicago can pull off what most will see as a monumental upset, let’s start with motivation. As everyone is well aware, the Bears are getting less respect than a Park Avenue interior decorator who shows up in the infield at Daytona in a Volkswagen Beetle with a fresh flower in the dashboard vase. Sure ,they have a great defense and a great return man, but their quarterback stinks and their offense is like non-alcoholic beer — it looks like the real stuff, but doesn’t have any of the kick.

The Bears haven’t talked about that a lot this week, which is a good thing; it means they’re stowing it away inside, letting it fuel their determination to prove the experts wrong.

They have no pressure on them; all of that is on the shoulders of the Colts, who are “supposed” to win the game. Give a team more emotional fuel and strip away the fear of failure, and you’ve got a powerful force, especially in the NFL, where there is never as much difference between teams as it may appear on paper.

On the other side of the aisle, the Colts’ coach, Tony Dungy, keeps saying the Super Bowl isn’t the most important thing in life, and it really doesn’t matter if you win or lose. In a cosmic sense, that’s right, but in terms of this week and barring unforeseen family emergencies, there really is nothing more important to the players on both teams than this game. It’s what they dreamt of as kids and worked their tails off for just about their entire lives — to win a ring. Most players get one shot at it, and this is theirs. And I feel very uneasy about a coach who doesn’t hammer on just how important this moment is.

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So I like the Bears’ motivation and mind set, which could be enough on its own to get the job done. But that’s not all there is to like about this team.

Let’s start with the obvious: the defense. It’s the best in the NFC, and, while the Colts did beat the Ravens, who also possess a great defense, the Bears defense will do things Baltimore’s didn’t. In that playoff win over Baltimore, the Ravens defense dropped three interceptions; had they held on to all of them or maybe only one of the Colts probably don’t win the game.

The Bears led the NFL with 44 turnovers, and they picked up four in the NFC Championship Game against the Saints; two early ones really set the tone for the entire game.

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The Bears will force turnovers against the Colts, too, and it won’t be because the Colts don’t protect the ball, but because the Bears are so darned good at taking the ball away. I’m figuring that three would be a sufficient number to take the wind out of the Colts’ sails.

They will also get in Peyton Manning’s face, which is the only way to hope to force him into errors. Much has been made this week about all the audibles and hand-gestures that Manning goes through at the line while calling plays. But the Bears don’t pay much attention to that stuff. They just go the ball and hit you — hard. And they keep doing it for 60 minutes. The Ravens held the Colts to 15 points; the Bears can do the same.

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Both teams have excellent special teams, and the Colts have kicker Adam Vinatieri, Mr. Automatic with championships on the line. But the Bears have the most dangerous return man in the game, Devin Hester, who is playing in his home town. Hester, a rookie, could succumb to the pressure of trying too hard, but talking to him, you get the feeling he knows what he has to do. He should give the Bears the edge in field position if the game comes down to frequent exchanges of punts, and he’s capable of busting a return for a touchdown at any time. I think he’ll get one.

Finally, there’s the much-maligned Bears offense, specifically their quarterback, Rex Grossman who has just finished his first complete year as a starter. I confess that Rex worries me. He has played both brilliantly and miserably this season, with more of the miserable games stacked up toward the end of the year. Against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game, he was 5-for-25 at one point before finally hitting some plays.