Ron Borges

Having the home-field advantage appears paramount in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Or is it?

All four home teams won on wild-card weekend, though plenty of road teams have won in past postseasons. Same with the conference championships — by that point of the season two teams are often evenly matched. It’s the second round where the home team often holds its ground because wild-card teams often find a way of upsetting a lesser division champion, then don’t have the firepower or defensive soundness to survive against the conference's best.

But next weekend may be more daunting for the home teams. For starters, those home-team wins leave only the best of the best — the Colts and Patriots in the AFC and Eagles and Seahawks in the NFC — to challenge each conference's top two seeds, the Chargers and Ravens and Bears and Saints in the NFC. We’ll deal with the AFC teams here. (For the NFC, click here.)

The Chargers (14-2) are considered the league’s most balanced team because of their withering defense, their explosive offense and because they have LaDainian Tomlinson, the game’s top running back. While that is all true, it's tough to pick against the three-time Super Bowl champion Patriots.

New England is not what it was during its Super Bowl run, but as long as quarterback Tom Brady is healthy and well protected, and its defense remains intact it can beat anyone. That defense was the backbone of the Patriots’ dynasty and is once again among the NFL’s stingiest, allowing just under 15 points a game. It allows only 94.2 rushing yards a game, fifth best in the NFL, thanks to its powerful front line of Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren.

Stopping Tomlinson is no easy matter. The MVP led the NFL in rushing, scoring and total offense — and the last three time he has played the Patriots, Tomlinson has averaged 144 rushing yards a game.

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So the Patriots will likely stack the defense to stop Tomlinson and force first-year starting quarterback Philip Rivers to win the game, which won't be easy because of New England's complex and often exotic coverage and blitz packages.

"It's pretty apparent what we have to do,'' said Patriots safety Artrell Hawkins after beating the New York Jets. "They're going to be our biggest challenge.''

San Diego averages 30.8 points a game and allows 19. It is tough against the run, good against the pass and has a great pass rush led by league sack leader Shawne Merriman.

How do the Pats counter that imposing, balanced attack?

By having Brady pin-point receivers and by using their three-headed running game of Laurence Maroney, Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. The team that runs the more effectively and gets to the quarterback most regularly will move on to the AFC title game.

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The other game features a classic game between irresistible force (Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense) and the immovable object (Baltimore's top-ranked defense). The smart money is on the Ravens’ defense. It allows a league low 13 points and 75.9 rushing yards per game. The latter means a long night for Colts' rookie runner Joseph Addai, not necessarily for Peyton Manning (4,397 yards, 36 touchdown passes), whose leads an offense scoring 26.7 points a game and features two 1,000 yard receivers in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, who can get open against most anybody.

Can the Ravens' Steve McNair match Manning if a shootout develops? Not with Mark Clayton (67 catches for 939 yards) as his lead receiver. He must hope the defense finds ways to harass Manning, who is 1-4 on the road in the playoffs.

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Also working against Indianapolis is a defense that has allowed 173 rushing yards and 23 points a game. Then again, if the Colts can protect Manning and open some holes for Addai, they can score on anyone. If their defense can play as well as it did Saturday in shutting down the Chiefs' beast of a back, Larry Johnson, the Colts could easily find a way to steal this game play host to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

However, it's a wide-open affair. Both home teams could easily win their games and set up a classic defensive showdown for the AFC title. After all, this is where home field counts most.

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