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SPRINTER
Horse that will win: Thor’s Echo
By closing out his campaign with victories in the DeFrancis Dash and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Thor’s Echo may have caused Eclipse Award voters to overlook that he was winless in the five races he ran before November. A 4-year-old gelding by a $7500 sire, Thor’s Echo is another horse to take advantage of the rail bias at Churchill Downs on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.
Horse that should win: Discreet Cat
The unbeaten Godolphin speedball laid claim to the title when he equaled the track record at Belmont Park while winning the Cigar Mile. Although the Cigar Mile is not technically a sprint, mile races such as the Metropolitan Handicap have figured in past elections for champion sprinters such as Forego and Gulch. When computed in fifths of a second -- the way races used to be calculated when Easy Goer won the Gotham in 1989 -- Discreet Cat’s time of 1:32 2/5 was as fast as it gets. The voters will say that the lightly raced son of Forestry ducked the tough competition by skipping the Breeders’ Cup fray, but he beat Invasor easily in March in Dubai. Enough said.
3-YEAR-OLD MALE
Horse that will win: Barbaro.
A Kentucky Derby victory still holds weight in the age of the World Championships, especially when the year’s most brilliant 3-year-old failed to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Understanding that the ill-fated Barbaro is deserving of some kind of Eclipse Award, the voters will designate him for the wrong one.
Horse that should win: Bernardini.
The Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner is criticized for beating competition that was unchallenging. But for the fact that he missed by three-quarters of a length in his last race – an atypical try on his part, Bernardini would have been spoken about in the same vein as Secretariat. Now, he becomes just another $100,000 stallion.
3-YEAR-OLD FEMALE
Horse that will win: Wait A While.
Winner of five of nine races, this grass specialist will eke out a close victory in the balloting over Pine Island. She finished a respectable fourth to older mares in the breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and won Graded Stakes at Santa Anita, Saratoga, Hollywood Park, Belmont and Gulfstream before that.
Horse that should win: Pine Island.
This two-time Grade I winner established her credentials at Belmont and Saratoga before a fatal misstep in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She won on fast tracks and in the mud and in the slop as well as on grass. Pine Island was a filly that was getting better with each race. Who knows how good she could have been?
4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP MALE
Horse that will win: Invasor.
Lava Man triumphed in seven races to Invasor’s four, but Doug O’Neill’s 5-year-old gelding won all his races on the West Coast and laid an egg in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. On the other hand, credit Kiaran McLaughlin for peaking the plucky Argentine-bred colt Invasor, a champion in Uruguay, at the right time.
Horse that should win: Invasor.
4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP FEMALE
Horse that will win: Fleet Indian.
One has to wonder if this hard-knocking New York-bred would have been voted champion if she had lost in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff instead of eased. All year long, the experts predicted her demise, and all year long she defied their dire predictions. Fleet Indian was six for six before taking a bad step. But all is well now, and she’s on tap for a date with Storm Cat.
Horse that should win: Fleet Indian.
TURF MALE
Horse that will win: English Channel.
Despite a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, the voters will pay respect to this horse’s four victories at four different tracks in six Grade I starts.
Horse that should win: Miesque’s Approval.
In a tightly contested category, Miesque’s Approval should get the nod on the basis of his 24-1 victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. It was the 7-year-old’s only Grade I win, but the voters should respect his opportunistic achievement in the court of the kings – a crowning achievement in the overshadowed career of trainer Marty Wolfson.
TURF FEMALE
Horse that will win: Ouija Board.
Outside of the Hong Kong Cup winner Pride, Ouija Board might be the best female runner in the world. The facile Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner is the reigning and two-time European Horse of The Year. But is one start in the United States enough to give her a championship trophy on these shores? Of course it is.
Horse that should win: Ouija Board.
HORSE OF THE YEAR
Horse that will win: Invasor.
In typical “what have you done for me lately” focus, the voters will forget about Invasor’s near-loss to the chronic also-ran Sun King in the Whitney Handicap as well as his fourth-place finish to Discreet Cat in the UAE Derby. The same voters who will claim that Bernardini beat nothing in his three Grade I wins will hail Invasor for beating Bernardini in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In all fairness, the designation World Championships are meaningless unless champions emerge from these races. But watch Invasor recede into early retirement if he stumbles twice in early 2007 competition.
Horse that should win: Barbaro.
After tracking Barbaro’s miraculous recovery from his ankle injury and laminitis, one can’t help but conclude that this determined colt would find a way to get in front of Invasor and Bernardini in a race. Although no horse is able to move the attendance needle at America’s racetracks any more, Barbaro made headlines by pulling on heartstrings and recalled the mostly unwarranted flings with hero worship of Smarty Jones and Funny Cide.
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