Allen Bestwick

With a 63-point lead over second-place Matt Kenseth in the Chase standings heading into Sunday’s Nextel Cup season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Jimmie Johnson is definitely in control.

But stock-car racing is a funny business, and by no means am I, or should anyone else be ready to hand Johnson the trophy just yet.

The drama of the race on Sunday will be in the things Johnson and his team can’t control. I’ll explain, and also handicap the chances of the four other drivers besides Johnson who still have a mathematical chance at winning the title should the unexpected happen in Miami.

No time for misfortune to strike
If Sunday’s race were strictly about a driver and team’s performance then Johnson wins his first Cup championship, no doubt.

Everything that Johnson and his team are in control of -- their car’s preparation and speed, and the performance level of driver and pit crew -- they are very much on top of.

With five consecutive top-two finishes, no team and driver are performing better than Johnson and his crew on the No. 48 Chevrolet of Hendrick Motorsports. But the real key to their try for a championship on Sunday is in the things they can’t control.

Here’s an example: Just shy of halfway through the 400 miles in last year’s race at Homestead-Miami, Johnson suffered a flat tire at speed entering a corner. With no time to slow or react, his car slammed into the wall and was heavily damaged, resulting in a 40th-place finish.

For the most part, a flat tire in racing is simply bad luck, running over some small bit of debris  dropped by another car not seen by officials until it’s too late. It happens. 

It could happen Sunday, and is surely a great fear of the No. 48 team since there’s just nothing they can do to prevent it. It's just a stroke of bad luck.

Another example: At Talladega in October, Johnson was running second on the last lap, less than a mile from the checkered flag, trying to make a pass for the win.

One of his teammates trying to help him draft past the leader inadvertently bumped Johnson’s car the wrong way, and sent it into a crash.

Less than a mile from the finish, Johnson went from second to 23rd -- a loss of 89 points in the blink of an eye.

Everything Johnson’s team controls they will be on top of on Sunday, but the things they can’t control will keep them nervous until the final lap is run and their trophy is safely in hand.

So if the unexpected happens, what are the prospects of the other four drivers who still have a shot at the title?

Matt Kenseth
The 2003 Cup champion is 63 points behind Johnson. If Kenseth wins the races and gets all the possible bonus points for leading the most laps, Johnson would have to finish 13th or worse to be overtaken.

Kenseth has not been overly enthusiastic about his team’s level of performance of late. In his official team press release this week, Kenseth says, “It’s going to take the No. 48 having some big problems for us to have a chance, but we have to make sure that we do our part to be there if something does happen so that we can capitalize."

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While saying he's a long shot to win the title, Kenseth also revealed that his team’s test session at the Homestead-Miami Speedway was one of their better tests of the season.

If misfortune strikes Johnson, can Kenseth outrun Kevin Harvick (90 points off the lead), Denny Hamlin (also 90 points off the lead), and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (115 points off the lead) for the title?

It won’t be easy. The 27-point advantage Kenseth has over Harvick and Hamlin (who are tied for third in the Chase standings) is only six to eight finishing positions, so if Harvick finishes say fifth, Kenseth would have to be 11th or better to hold him off.

Given that even on their bad days in the Chase Kenseth and his team have found a way to finish just outside the top 10, I look at that 27-point gap as putting a lot of pressure on the others, if Johnson runs into a big problem.

Kevin Harvick
Homestead-Miami Speedway is a very fast 1.5-mile track, and there have been four races on 1.5-mile tracks so far in the Chase. Looking at the results from those events, here’s the question with Harvick for Sunday: Which team is going to be on display?

At Kansas and Charlotte Harvick finished 15th and 18th, and then had that awful Atlanta race where he struggled to a 31st-place result.

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Things certainly went better in the last 1.5-mile track race at Texas two weeks ago as Harvick crossed the checkers third.

Which will it be for Harvick this weekend -- a finish between 15th and 20th or a finish up front? I hope it’s one up front as that will make watching the race more fun for everyone.

One other issue to keep an eye out for is a drive-line vibration that Harvick’s team encountered in a couple of Chase races. They have to push every part and piece on their car to the very edge to try and win the big trophy Sunday, and they can't have that problem resurface.