Bob Neumeier

The Breeders’ Cup “World” Thoroughbred Championships need quality European runners each season to justify its claim as the best international competition on the planet.

Despite huge purses, owners of the highest-quality horses across the sea are often leery of flying their steeds to North America for the championships for several reasons. When California hosts the Breeders’ Cup, it’s too long a journey to ship across the Atlantic Ocean and then across the U.S.. Excessive heat and humidity are reasons why the Euros avoid Florida and Texas.

So when the Cup is held at Belmont Park or Aqueduct in New York or at Churchill Downs in Kentucky, they come in droves. When the entries and post positions were announced Wednesday, quality European horses could be found in The Classic (1 ¼ miles on the dirt) and, of course, on their favored grass surface in The Mile, The Turf and The Filly-and-Mare Turf.

Comparing their form to North American horses is a vexing problem for handicappers. In The Classic, Euros David Junior and George Washington are highly rated, but they have never run on the dirt. In George Washington’s case, he’s also never run farther than one mile in a competitive race.

How do we rate these horses?

Even in those events on the grass, it’s problematical to compare a Grade 1 Turf winner in North America with a Group 1 champion in England, France or Ireland. Can the heavyweight boxing champion of America whip the heavyweight boxing titleholder of Europe?

Who knows? Prove it in the ring.

We’ll have that chance on Saturday when several of Europe’s best enter “the ring” at Churchill Downs. Some like Hurricane Run in The Turf and Ouija Board in The Filly and Mare Turf will be favored by the betting public. But they will be placing their bets based on perception and hype — two handicapping tools guaranteed to send folks to the poorhouse in the long run.

A guide, not a ruler
The best way to view these mysterious invaders is to check out their Timeform numbers. These are speed rating estimates as computed by well-respected analysts. The higher the number, the better the horse. Numbers over 120 are viewed as U.S. stakes quality and should fit and compete with America’s finest talent. But over the years, high Timeform numbers have not resulted in many Breeders’ Cup victories. Bet them blindly and you too can take a trip to the poorhouse.

Timeform rates every horse in training. Since 1940, only 103 horses have earned a number over 135 and since the Breeders’ Cup began in 1984, 17 of those have run in the U.S. championships. That doesn’t count Cigar, Ghostzapper and Gentlemen. These three earned their ratings with superb North American performances and should not be counted in this study.

Of Timeform’s 17 135-plus horses, only three have won Breeders’ Cup races —Daylami (138 Timeform), Arazi (135), and Pebbles (135). A two- dollar win bet on all 17 classy Euro runners would have returned about $17 for the $34 invested, or about half of your dough.

Timeform money-burners?

In the 1986 Turf in the Breeders’ Cup, the incredible Dancing Brave with a whopping 140 Timeform rating — seventh-best of all time — ran a dismal 4^th at prohibitive 1-2 odds. Other high-rated Timeform horses that failed in the Breeders’ Cup include Mark of Esteem, Zilzal, Montjeu. Hawk Wing and Warning to name a few.

Does this mean European runners are inferior to those in North America?

Hardly.

Do horses get jet lag?
It suggests that it is a tall order for a horse to fly across the ocean and acclimate to America’s weather and track conditions. For those of you readers that have traveled by plane to Europe, how long does it take to feel “normal” again?

So maybe the best way to handle the Euros is to avoid the favorites like Hurricane Run and Ouija Board. If you are brave enough, take a look at David Junior (132 Timeform) or George Washington (133 Timeform) to upset even-money favorite Bernardini. If they handle the dirt and the distance, they could make you a fortune on Saturday.

My best advice is to go on Timeform.com and get a list of the top-rated horses this year in Europe. Check out this year’s Breeders’ Cup lineup and go through their races against top Timeform competition. Were they competitive?

If the answer is “yes” and the mutual price is right (the longer odds the better), than a wager on the Euros is never a bad play. Every so often, they click at boxcar mutuels.

Anyone remember Arcangues (Winner of the 1993 BC Classic at 133-1, or $269.20 for $2 win bet)?