Chris Ekstrand

Sportswriters love to make predictions. We love to write what we feel are educated guesses about what will happen in the future. Sports editors, the people who decide what topics we write about and how much of what we write finds its way into publication, love predictions even more than we do.

And writers and editors are certain that readers love predictions, too. They are provocative, are made in the spirit of good fun, and they certainly get conversations going among avid basketball fans.

And so what if they turn out to be absolute folly? Who gets hurt? Nobody.

I can remember being at the 1996 NBA Finals doing feverish mathematical tables projecting how quickly Shawn Kemp, then only 26, would eclipse 20,000 points and 10,000 rebounds. Well, it's 10 years later and I can't remember what I came up with, but Kemp has been out of the league for three years and he never reached either milestone.

2006 is also about the time when most people (including me) felt Grant Hill would be putting the finishing touches on a certain Hall of Fame career. Now, we just root for him to get through a full season. So any prediction is eminently fallible.

The 2003 NBA Draft delivered some spectacular talents to the NBA in the persons of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. Their amazing accomplishments over the first three seasons and their tantalizing potential have all of us who live and die with the NBA falling all over ourselves asking questions and making predictions about these guys. Is LeBron the next Michael Jordan? How many championships can D-Wade win? Can Carmelo win an NBA scoring title? Will Bosh eventually be even better than KG?

But the 2003 draft was special in other ways, too. It was so deep, that the 29th and last player chosen in the first round, Josh Howard of the Dallas Mavericks, has already become a star on one of the best teams in the NBA. And another lightly-regarded player chosen 21st overall that year, Boris Diaw, now with the Phoenix Suns, has shown signs that he has arrived as one of the most versatile and intriguing players in the NBA.

Tony Gutierrez / AP Boris Diaw tallied 13.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists for the Suns, and became an even bigger offensive factor in the playoffs, averaging 18.7 ppg.

They have each played three NBA seasons. Howard is 26 years old; Diaw is 24. Both players recently signed lucrative long-term extensions to remain with their current teams.

Howard averaged 15.6 points and 6.3 rebounds last season playing for the Mavericks on the NBA's deepest roster. Diaw tallied 13.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists for the Suns, and became an even bigger offensive factor in the playoffs, averaging 18.7 ppg.

The achievements of Howard and Diaw have already surpassed most of the players chosen after the first seven picks of the 2003 draft. They are each key performers for teams with realistic NBA championship hopes.

Which of these two fine young players, then, will turn out to be better? Let's examine the evidence and see if we can make an educated guess, a prediction, about who will achieve more in his NBA career.

At 6-foot-6, Howard is two inches shorter than the 6-8 Diaw. He is the superior perimeter shooter and has a greater ability to take defenders off the dribble. He is a fiery player who rises to the challenge defensively and can defend guards as well as small forwards.

Comparing 2003 to 1984   Images: Stars of '03, legends of '84 Part 1: 2003 could become best ever Part 2: 1984 set a golden standard Part 3: LeBron already ahead of MJ Part 4: 2003 hidden gem: Howard or Diaw? Part 5: Darko no Bowie, yet Vote: Better? | Vote: Best of '03?|   Discuss

Despite missing 23 games with injuries last season, Howard received three votes for the NBA's All-Defensive Team, including one vote for the first team. Howard is an experienced player who has become increasingly more important to Dallas. Since he's playing on a team with great scorers like Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse, Howard is often relied on to defend the other team's top scorer in addition to chipping in some points himself.

Diaw, on the other hand, is a player who can comfortably play in any area of the court. His terrific court vision means he's a threat to get an assist whether he is facing the basket at the top of the key, playing with his back to the basket in the post, or feeding an interior player from a spot on the wing. As a youngster playing for Pau Orthez in France, it wasn't unusual for Diaw to finish a game with more assists than points. But as he proved in the playoffs, Diaw can score plenty of points when his team needs him to do so. 

Slide show   Do they compare? A look at the stars of the 2003 draft, and how they compare to the greatest draft of all time -- 1984.

Diaw struggled through two forgettable seasons in Atlanta where he was never able to find a niche on a young team with many players who were trying to forge their NBA identities. When he was traded to Phoenix along with two first round picks in the deal that sent Joe Johnson to Atlanta, Diaw was viewed as something of a throw-in.

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