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Polytrack adds scary uncertainty to 3 BC races

Hard to rely on Keeneland speed figures on artificial track earlier this year

Huh?

When that mare and Spun Sugar both run out of the money, it’s a tell-tale sign of confusing chaos. But wait, there are more problems for Breeders’ Cup handicappers -- the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies divisions.

Over the years, Keeneland dirt track form has been influential in these races as well. For the boys, the Breeders Futurity has produced four Breeders’ Cup winners -- Tasso (1985), Boston Harbor (1986), Favorite Trick (1997) and Answer Lively (1998). For the girls, the Alcibiades Stakes has graduated BC winners Eliza (1992), Countess Diana (1997), Silverbulletday (1998) and Folklore (2005).

Morning line Juvenile favorite Circular Quay (4-1) could not win on Polytrack in the Futurity despite his overwhelming odds of 2-5 at the windows, A cinch that day? Hardly. He’ll be joined by race winner Great Hunter and Street Sense in the Juvenile on Nov. 4.

In the Juvenile Fillies, this year’s Alcibiades on Polytrack was actually won by a MAIDEN of all things, Bel Air Beauty at 47-1 from the barn of trainer Frank Brothers. She’ll return for the Breeders Cup at Churchill as well as also rans Appealing Zophie (12-1 morning line), Cotton Blossom (15-1), She’s included (30-1) and Untouched Talent (6-1) in the Polytrack to Churchill transition of synthetic surface to the dirt main track.

Because of all the talent coming from various parts of the country and Europe, it’s always been a daunting challenge to pick winners at the Breeders’ Cup. The confounding Polytrack at Keeneland has further muddied the overall picture.

Rather than spend countless hours in breaking down the form this year, perhaps a flip of the coin or a pointed dart could be as efficient a handicapping tool in any analysis of Polytrack prep races.

Mind you, I would rather spend a day at Keeneland than any other facility in the land. It is a spectacular venue for racing -- chock full of tradition in a lovely landscape. The new surface has decreased the number of injuries to the thoroughbreds -- certainly, a positive step in the improvement of the sport.

But on the flip side, the early results of Polytrack have been hazardous to the bankroll of traditional handicappers. So Breeders’ Cup players -- beware of Keeneland form in the Distaff and the two-year-old divisions. Until we learn the lessons of Polytrack, I’ll be focusing my attention on the turf races on Breeders’ Cup afternoon.

© 2012 NBC Sports.com  Reprints


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