Bob Neumeier

Imagine trying to solve the Sunday New York Times crossword puzzle where every clue was given in another language? Sound impossible?

An exaggeration perhaps, but the installation of the new Polytrack at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky. has turned the difficult game of handicapping into outdoor Bingo or The Wheel of Fortune. Compounding the dilemma is the influence Keeneland races will have on the Nov. 4 Breeders’ Cup Championships at Churchill Downs, where up to fourteen entrants will have their most recent race on the kooky Polytrack surface.

Most players (often incorrectly) put extra handicapping weight on a horse’s last performance and the odds often reflect that trend. But the results of Polytrack have been so confounding, it becomes almost impossible to imagine how the Keeneland results can be used to evaluate Breeders’ Cup horses suddenly going back to the more conventional dirt tracks--- like the one at Churchill Downs for the championship event on Nov 4.

Historically, the results of the fall meet at Keeneland have had an enormous impact on the Breeders’ Cup in three particular divisions -- The Distaff, The Juvenile, and the Juvenile Fillies.

Run on the since removed dirt track, a whopping nine fillies and mares have used the prestigious Spinster Stakes at Keeneland as a springboard for ten separate victories in the BC Distaff. Beginning with Princess Rooney in 1984, Life’s Magic (1985), Sachuista (1987), Bayakoa (1989,1990), Paseana (1992), Inside Information (1995), Spain (2000), Unbridled Elaine (2001) and Pleasant Tap (2005) all completed the Spinster-BC Distaff parlay. Take note that the last time the championships were held at Churchill Downs in 2000, the first three finishers in the Distaff had all competed in the Keeneland Spinster — Spain, Surfside, and Heritage of Gold combining for a $664.60 exacta and a $6405 trifecta.

But now that Polytrack has been installed at Keeneland, can the results of this year’s Spinster be used as reliable clues to select this year’s Distaff winner?

Polytrack is a synthetic surface, Churchill Downs is a dirt surface. At Keeneland this fall — front-running speed types were annihilated to the benefit of late-running closers — the exact opposite of the speed bias  this track was known for  Every handicapping theory you will ever read will say that a horse with an uncontested lead gives you the best shot at winning that race. Players spend hours with pace charts trying to unearth those “lone speeds”.

But in the fall meet , playing those speedballs on the Keeneland Polytrack was an invitation to the poor house.

Horses also seem to “bunch up” on Polytrack which results in countless “blanket” finishes —meaning small margins of victory. A perfect case is this year’s Spinster , where the favorite Spun Sugar at 5-2 odds finished 8th in a nine-horse field, but beaten only three lengths.

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Owned by Stronach Stables and trained by the redoubtable Todd Pletcher, Spun Sugar would appear to be a classic victim of Polytrackitis. She’s a speedy sort and remarkably consistent —her 8th place effort on the synthetic surface in the Spinster is only the second time in her career she has not finished 1-2-3.

Here then is the rub -- how do you use the Polytrack effort by Spun Sugar to analyze her chances back on the main dirt track at Churchill Downs in the year’s Distaff?

Has she simply lost her form? Or do we take a pencil and draw a line through the Polytrack race as if it never occurred? Conversely, do we de-value the winning efforts of those that found the synthetic surface to their liking, like Spinster winner Asi Siempre? These are crucial handicapping decisions.

Of the 15 horses pre-entered in The Distaff, six will launch into the race off the Spinster-Polytrack angle -- Asi Siempre (15-1 morning line), Happy Ticket (12-1), Lemons Forever (50-1), Sharp Lisa (50-1),  Summerly (30-1) and the aforementioned Spun Sugar (8-1). To further illustrate the randomness of the synthetic surface, the consistent Happy Ticket, who entered the Spinster with five consecutive graded wins or seconds, could do no better than 6^th as the 8-5 favorite.

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