Mike Celizic

If this works out the way it’s setting up, it’s going to be a long, cold winter in New York. Two weeks ago, there seemed to be no way in heaven or on Earth that there wouldn’t be a second Subway Series in six years played between the top spending team in the American League and its National League counterpart.

Maybe one of the teams could lose — accidents like that are always happening in the playoffs — but both of them losing was as likely as waking up tomorrow morning to discover that there was universal free health care.

In the annals of folding acts, that daily double would be up there with the collapse of the Soviet Union — who could have seen it coming?

Well, the collapse is almost complete.

The Yankees are already long gone, chased like annoying flies out of the playoffs by the Tigers. And now the Mets are on the verge of seeing what looked to be one of the greatest seasons in their history disappear like a cheap illusion.

Oh, the humanity!

As big a shock as the Yankees’ meek withdrawal from the competition was, the Mets’ impending doom would be even bigger. I don’t say that lightly, because, as we all know, the Yankees always do everything bigger and better than everyone else. Their wins are greater — or made out to be greater — than those of more common teams. And their losses are more terrible, because for them losing isn’t an option.

But as great as the Yankees’ lineup was this year, the Mets were the team that we all said couldn’t possibly lose before they got to the World Series. It wasn’t that the Mets are a better team; they’re not. But the Yankees were in the American League, where the competition is made of sterner stuff. The Mets were virtually an American League team playing without the designated hitter against a very ordinary cast of contenders.

Even with their starting rotation shredded with injuries to Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez, losing was unimaginable to teams like the Padres, Dodgers and Cardinals, not one of which won more than 88 games.

It was that way because the Mets had the league’s best offense and best bullpen. Put that up against teams whose starting pitching wasn’t any better than theirs, and that lineup would take over.

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It worked that way all season — Pedro won just four games after April and the Mets waltzed to the AL East title. It worked that way against the overmatched Dodgers in the NLCS. It would work that way against the equally overmatched Cardinals, a team with a substitute closer, a dinged-up lineup, a mere 83 wins on the season and an awful record in September.

And yet the Mets are down two games to three against the Cardinals with no idea who they’ll pitch in Game 7 of the NLCS — if rookie John Maine can get them that far when he takes the mound against potential NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter in Game 6.

Their best chance to be in position to win was in Game 5, with Tom Glavine, who was brilliant in two previous postseason starts, pitching against Jeff Weaver, who had never before this year ever shown any ability to stand up to the pressure of big situations.

Glavine had a decent outing and the Mets gave up just four runs on the evening. That shouldn’t have been enough for the Cardinals against the likes of Jose Reyes, Paul LoDuca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright, not with Weaver on the mound.

The Mets could still win, as bad as their chances look. But you have to figure that a Cardinals team that could turn Weaver into a winner isn’t going to be denied now. Watching the Cards, it’s hard not to think of the Tigers, the team that eliminated the Yankees.

Like the Cardinals, the Tigers forgot how to win in September. Also like them, the Tigers had a retread pitcher who had served hard time in New York, earning a lot of money but very little love.

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Unlike Weaver, who failed only with the Yankees, Kenny Rogers had memorable meltdowns with both the Yankees and the Mets, for whom he once walked in the series-ending run in the playoffs against Atlanta.

But both turned into master craftsmen against their former teams. Rogers was positively brilliant in shutting out the Yankees. Weaver was short of brilliant in his two starts against the Mets, losing Game 1 2-0 to Glavine. But he beat them in Game 5, the game that pushed the Mets to the brink.

Just as you’ve got to tip your hat to the Tigers, you have to give the Cardinals enormous credit for what they’ve been able to do. They’ve gotten timely hitting from every part of the line-up, a team of grinders who managed to win when Albert Pujols wasn’t doing much of anything, a team that believes in itself even when nobody else does.

They’ve got to win just one more to complete the stunning sack of New York. They’ve got Carpenter going in Game 6 against Maine. If that doesn’t work, there’s Jeff Suppan ready to pitch against a committee of Mets pitchers.

Don’t bet against them.

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