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Jimmie Johnson, driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, is the driver to beat in Saturday night's Nextel Cup race at Lowe's Motor Speedway in Charlotte, writes Benny Parsons of MSNBC.com.

Benny Parsons

This weekend's Nextel Cup race -- the fifth event in the Chase playoff -- is Saturday night at Lowe's Motor Speedway in Charlotte, a track where it makes no sense at all to pick against Jimmie Johnson.

Working in Johnson's favor
Johnson, whose primary sponsor is Lowe's, considers the Charlotte oval his home track. And he has certainly shown a home-track advantage. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has won four of the last five points races at Charlotte.

Overall, Johnson has won five points races and two non-points races at Lowe's, and he will be bidding for his third straight win this event.

In May Johnson started third and crossed the checkers second at Lowe's. His average Cup finish at the Charlotte track is 6.2.

Last weekend at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway, Johnson had a car that looked like it might pull out a win, and he was chasing leader Dale Earnhardt Jr. on the last lap when a bump draft from his teammate Brian Vickers resulted in Johnson and Junior spinning out, and Vickers going by for the win.

The incident left Johnson angry with Vickers -- who is leaving Hendrick Motorsports for Red Bull Racing -- and that anger may last, but I don't think it will affect Johnson's performance on Saturday night.

Johnson, who is eighth in the Chase standings and 156 points from the top spot, hasn't had much good fortune in the first four races of the playoff, but his car has been fast each week.

Other drivers to watch
Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards -- all of Roush Racing -- could very well be top contenders to deny Johnson another trip to Victory Lane. Martin is third in the Chase standings, and Kenseth is second. Biffle and Edwards are not in the playoff.

Martin calls the Charlotte track the greatest place to race in the world. Looking at his career results at this venue, you can see why he feels that way. At Charlotte, Martin has four wins, 17 top-fives, and 21 top-10s.

The veteran finished fifth in this event last year, and in May he started 21st, but wound up an impressive fourth at this 1.5-mile oval. His average Cup finish at Lowe's is 15.9.

Kenseth is the only driver in NASCAR history to win the Charlotte 600-miler as a rookie, achieving that feat in 2000. In his career, he has posted four wins at this track, including in the All-Star Challenge two years ago.

As for the other Hendrick Motorsports drivers besides Johnson, I like the chances of all three of them -- Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, and Vickers.

This is Gordon's 28th Cup start at Lowe's, where he has seven poles, four wins, 13 top-fives, and 15 top-10s. His most recent Cup victory at the Charlotte track came in October of 1999.

Gordon finished 38th in this event last year after being involved in a wreck, and in May he was 36th after also getting caught up in an accident at this 1.5-mile oval. His average Cup finish at Lowe's is 16.2.

This is Busch's sixth Cup start at Lowe's, where he has no poles, no wins, no top-fives, and no top-10s.

Busch was 39th in this event last year after being in a wreck, and in May he was 38th again because of an accident. His average Cup finish at Lowe's is 33.6.