Polytrack results can cloud BC prep picture
Unknown if artificial surface will prepare horses for big dance next month
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Super Saturday? That doesn‘t quite get it. How about Wonderful Wild & Woolly Weekend?
With four weeks remaining until Breeders’ Cup XXIII, no less than 14 stakes, eight of them Grade 1, will be contested this weekend at three of America’s premiere venues in New York, Kentucky and California. And if you want to throw in Meadowlands’ Pegasus, the Cotillion at Philadelphia Park, and Hoosier Park’s Indiana Derby and Oaks, go right ahead. At this time of year any and all roads lead to Louisville.
Of course, the focus will be on the Cup’s major players, many of them in action at Belmont Park, Keeneland and Santa Anita. What makes this weekend’s exercise so fascinating is that it can be the harbinger for good and bad and the unknown. What confuses the issue further is that very good efforts this weekend could mean less than best four weeks hence. Confused? You’re not alone.
Keeneland has 90 miles of highway separating it from Churchill Downs, site of “racing’s greatest day” November 4. The overriding question in Lexington won’t be what we glean for the performances but how the new Polytrack surface will prepare the prepsters for the big dance. And that’s the part that might not be knowable until Breeders’ Cup results are declared official.
Last weekend’s Kentucky Cup program at Turfway Park — where Polytrack was first used for an entire race meet but was tweaked (read tightened) this fall so that running times would bear a closer resemblance to traditional running times (read faster) and the surface would produce less kick-back into the faces of trailing horses — would be a good place to start.
The more forgiving artificial surface cut down dramatically on the number of breakdowns in its Turfway debut last season. However, no one will know how the horses that have swallowed the artificial-substance kick-back will be affected internally, if at all, until more data is available. That might be an issue for another day but one that raises worthy questions about the rush-to-judgment installation of Polytrack wherever possible.
Not insignificant is the effect that Polytrack racing has on the consistency of handicapping form. European punters have experienced decidedly mixed results betting on Polytrack races and they have had a lot more experience with it than America‘s handicappers.
At Turfway last weekend, you would have assumed that at least one favorite would have won a race on the track’s biggest day of the fall meet. But the public’s choice went 0-for-12. Five races designed as Breeders’ Cup preps were emblematic of the day. Beautiful Bets won the G3 Turfway Park Breeders’ Cup at 15-1 with favorites Splendid Blended and Prospective Saint off-the-board finishers. Reigning Court won the Sprint at 25-1 while favorite Likely was off-the-board.
Polytrack-specialist Ball Four won the big race, the Turfway Park Classic at 12-1 with Premium Tap off the board, the only losing favorite with a legitimate excuse. U D Ghetto won the Juvenile at 17-1; 2-1 favorite Izzie’s Halo was out of the money with no excuse. Cohiba Miss took the Juvenile Fillies at 12-1 while co-favorites Whatdreamsaremadeof and Kauai Calls finished second and last, respectively. What it will all mean next month is anyone’s guess.
Keeneland, former home of the conveyor-belt golden rail that in the past has produced freakish speed performances like Sinister Minister’s in last spring’s Blue Grass, begins their Polytrack era when the meet opens tomorrow. Track management is already calling it a success since they’ve received a record number of stall applications and have also gotten favorable reviews from horsemen that have trained over the Polytrack training oval. Of course, Keeneland has a vested economic interest in the commercial success of the Polytrack product and cannot be blamed if their comment are a tad less than objective.
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Fourteen fillies are scheduled to answer the starter in the Alcibiades and there probably will be no shortage of entrants for Saturday’s G1 Breeders’ Futurity or Sunday’s G1 Spinster. Sprinter Bordonaro will try to hone his form in Saturday’s G2 Phoenix while Pure As Gold will stay at home for Santa Anita’s G1 Ancient Title. It would take an impressive or easy score for him to race back in Louisville.
Turf specialist Silent Name will duck Aragorn in the Oak Tree Breeders’ Cup Mile and ship cross country for Saturday’s G1 Shadwell at Keeneland. Grass fillies will race in Belmont’s G1 Flower Bowl for the right to challenge sensational 3-year-old Wait A While in the Filly & Mare Turf. Pletcher’s English Channel heads the GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic before facing Arc also-ran and defending Turf champion, Shirocco, and fresh Man o’ War winner Cacique in the Turf.
Bordonaro and Pure As Gold are not the only sprinters running this weekend. The sensational Henny Hughes will meet his elders in Belmont’s G1 Vosburgh. Demonstrably the most talented speedster in the East, kid-gloved sensation Discreet Cat notwithstanding, it will be his toughest challenge as he squares off against last year’s defending Sprint champion, Belmont Park-loving Silver Train.
Although the Jockey Club Gold Cup suffered a blow due to the defection of fever-spiking Invasor, who will train up to the Classic, it still features division-leading 3-year-old sensation Bernardini vs. multiple Group 1 European Dylan Thomas, who has designs on the Classic if he passes the dirt test on Saturday. This encounter also features an interesting sub-plot; the world class rivalry between the powerful Darley and Coolmore interests.
As Breeders’ Cup historians are aware, Santa Anita’s G2 Goodwood is a profound prep. But even if Lava Man, the West’s best and only horse ever to sweep the Santa Anita Handicap, Hollywood Gold Cup and Pacific Classic, wins his final prep in style, the question remains whether the result will have meaning at Churchill Downs. Just like those prepping on Polytrack for international racing’s biggest stage.
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