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Sorry USA, Argentina will win gold

Unless they shore up defense, Americans likely headed for silver

Image: NocioniAP
Andres Nocioni and his close-knit Argentina squad should beat Spain, and then the U.S. to win the world championships.

Wednesday's victory over Germany put the United States in the semifinals of the world championships, as the Americans continue their quest to erase memories of poor performances in the 2002 worlds and 2004 Olympics.

But winning the gold medal won't be so easy, as the competition continues to get tougher.

With that in mind, let's break down Friday's semifinal matchups.

Argentina vs. Spain: Argentina has been THE dominant team in Japan, and never mind that their average winning margin has been 23.9 points compared to the United
States' 25 ppg. The Argentines have clearly been the master in each game they have played, unlike the NBA stars, who actually trailed Italy by nine points at the half in a preliminary round
game and led Germany by only a single point at half in the quarterfinals.

Except for a laissez-faire performance in a four-point win over a desperate Serbia-Montenegro team in the final game of the preliminary round, Argentina has put opponents away early and
most have not had even a glimmer of hope for victory.

Manu Ginobili of the San Antonio Spurs has averaged 15 points per game in Japan, but when needed he's come up with huge scoring games against France (25 points) and New Zealand (28). Andres Nocioni of the Chicago Bulls, who may be the toughest international player in the history of the NBA, has a pair of 20-point games and is one of five legitimate 3-point shooting threats Argentina possesses.

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Luis Scola (Tau Ceramica) may have lost some teeth against the Kiwis, but he's still the team's toughest rebounder (7.1 rpg) and interior scorer (14.6 ppg). Fabricio Oberto (San Antonio Spurs) has been a surprisingly adept complementary scorer and Walter Hermann (Charlotte Bobcats) and point guard Pepe Sanchez (Unicaja Malaga) have made all the plays with ease. Sanchez leads the tournament with 6.4 assists per game despite averaging only 24 minutes.

Spain's Pau Gasol is the most unstoppable scoring force remaining in the tournament. The NBA All-Star from the Memphis Grizzlies is averaging 21.6 points while shooting over 62 percent from the field.

Even Argentina, Spain's semifinal opponent, will have to play a helping, collapsing defense against Gasol, since neither Oberto nor Scola is big enough to handle Gasol's variety of post moves and short jumpers by himself. Gasol hasn't scored less than 16 points in any game, and he's done his share defensively, averaging 9.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocked shots.

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Spain's sterling backcourt of Juan Carlos Navarro, who plays for Winterthur F.C. Barcelona (14.6 ppg), and Jose Manuel Calderon of the Toronto Raptors (28 assists, five turnovers) will have to fight Ginobili and Sanchez to a draw despite giving away size to both players. Navarro has consistently displayed his dependable 3-point shot (45.5 percent) in the tournament while Calderon has taken only wide open shots and has made 63 percent of them.

Rudy Fernandez (DKV Joventut) will have to be a big factor against Argentina as well. The explosive guard is not nearly as powerful as Nocioni, but he's quicker and he'll try to use his
speed in open court situations. Jorge Garbajosa (Toronto Raptors), who can be a dangerous 3-point shooter despite playing power forward, must rebound from a hideous showing against
Lithuania (0-for-9 shooting, four points).

PICK: Argentina


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