Bill Williamson

It’s the time of year to scour rosters, study each NFL team’s changes, scan the schedule and guess which NFL team will come out of nowhere and shock the league.

There’s got to be at least one, right? It happens every year. You know, the 1999 Rams, the 2001 Patriots, 2005 Bears.

So, who is it going to be this fall? Here’s a guess: No one.

The NFL suddenly looks like a status quo proposition these days. The good teams have gotten better, and the bad teams still stink.

For the first time in several seasons, there seems to be a thick line between the quality teams and the struggling clubs. You can't lump all the teams together and say that only one or two players separate the top from the bottom, talent-wise. Let’s just say, the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers are about 8-10 players better than the San Francisco 49ers and Oakland Raiders.

Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last season, at least 10 stand a strong chance of returning.

Is Indianapolis going anywhere? Did Carolina get noticeably worse? No.

Even the four teams that qualified as wild-card teams — the Redskins, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Steelers — have at least gotten better. These weren’t middle-of-the road teams that snuck into the playoffs. These are quality teams who are still rising.

That’s the thing about the NFL this season: There are very good teams ready to make a push, and there are teams nowhere near being a contender.

Here’s a list of teams that have no chance of making the playoffs: Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay, the New York Jets, New Orleans, Oakland, Houston, San Francisco and Tennessee. That’s nine of 32 teams — more than a quarter of the league that is strapping on their helmet with no chance of playing in January.

Each team in this group beside the 49ers and the Titans has a new coach. San Francisco coach Mike Nolan is entering his second season. So, for the most part, this is a group that is in serious flux. Each has way too many issues to be considered a threat.

Yes, yes, we all know the Rams and Patriots were considered to be dog meat at the beginning of their respective Super Bowl-winning seasons. But look at this crew. It’s ugly.

The Bills, Lions, 49ers, Titans and Jets are either unsettled at quarterback or rely on an unproven youngster. And don't say one of these untested QBs could be the next Tom Brady. Sir Thomas is a once in a lifetime, friends.

Green Bay, Oakland, Detroit, New Orleans and Houston are totally in rebuilding phases. Each is pock-filled on both sides of the ball. 

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The Ravens and Browns are improved, but they have major question marks. The Vikings struggled last season, and now they don't have Daunte Culpepper. The Rams are an unknown with Scott Linehan at coach, and the Cardinals won't prove anything until Edgerrin James has a decent offensive line to run behind.

There is a small group of non-playoff teams from 2005 closer to making the playoffs. This group includes the Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Dolphins and Chargers, all decent teams who are playoff threats.

But these teams were expected to be in the hunt last season, so they don't qualify as surprises. Would it really be a shock if the T.O.-energized Cowboys go deep in a weak NFC? Or if the offensively dangerous Chiefs put together an 11-12 win team?

There is room in the NFL for a couple of these teams.

But there isn’t this year for the Packers or the Raiders.

There will be no shocks this year in the shock-happy NFL.

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