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Americans won't sniff podium in Paris

Landis' meltdown, Leipheimer's lack of sync ruin U.S. chances at Tour

LandisAFP - Getty Images
Floyd Landis has looked unstoppable during this year's Tour de France, until Wednesday.

At the end of the day Landis came in 10:04 behind stage-winner Michael Rasmussen, dropping from first overall to 11th, more than eight minutes out of contention. And Oscar Pereiro, Floyd’s former Phonak teammate who started the day just 10 seconds behind Landis, was in the yellow jersey, with a 1:50 lead over second-place Carlos Sastre.

You have to feel bad for Floyd. As a bike racer, hitting the wall is the most physically, morally and psychologically shattering experience imaginable. It’s worse than death. All you want is to be alone. What he experienced Wednesday was like like getting caught with your pants around your ankles. On live TV. It’s not surprising he refused all questions after the stage.

Everyone wants to know what happened, and right now that’s something only Floyd can answer. He finally did speak to reporters on Wednesday, “I suffered from the beginning and I tried to hide it. I don’t expect to win the Tour at this point. It’s not easy to get back 8 minutes. That was the best I could do.”

It’s hard to say whether Landis will start Thursday — he’s not anywhere near the podium, although if he can get himself back together he’ll probably crack top 10 in Paris.

Leipheimer didn’t do a lot to advance his placement on the overall standings Wednesday, but he put in a heck of a ride with a strong solo move on the final climb. I think he’s still not quite himself, which explains how he rode over his head yesterday and Wednesday — making strong moves that peter out is what happens when your body isn’t as strong as your head thinks it is.

And I believe Levi’s still making moves based on how strong he ought to be, but he’s out of sync. I don’t know that he’ll move up in the standings come Paris. He’s ridden past his limit two days in a row, and I doubt he'll recover for Thursday's five categorized climbs. And there’s the question of whether he can actually time trial on Saturday, his embarrassing performance in stage 7.

Pereiro will seriously come under the gun Thursday, and T-Mobile and CSC will be leading the charge as they try to move Kloden and Sastre to the podium’s top step. Rabobank may still try to get Denis Menchov onto the podium, but he’s 3:58 down and out of the running for the yellow jersey.

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It’s wide open now. T-Mobile could put Kloden on top, or possibly Michael Rogers. CSC has been  very cagey in the past few Tours, and they’ll be organized for Sastre. They may not have as much horsepower as T-Mobile, but they’re tactically superior and may have some tricks planned for tomorrow.

And Pereiro’s team is a wild card — they could be a factor, or they might crumble and leave Pereiro to try and cover the attacks as best he can (which hasn’t exactly hurt his so far).

Look for hard, organized attacks Thursday, especially over the next-to-last climb on the Cote de Chatillon-sur-Cluses, which is only category 3 but will cut the pretenders out of the pack. Expect things to blow apart on the hors categorie Col de Joux-Plane, which comes just 12 km from the finish.

This is the most exciting, unpredictable Tour I’ve ever seen. Nobody knows how it will shape up. Thursday might decide it. Or it could go down to the wire with Saturday’s time trial. At this point, every stage is must-see, so you’d best tune in.

Garrett Lai is the former editor of Bicycle Guide Magazine and a columnist for Bicycletest.com based in Southern California.


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