It looks pretty good, for the time being. Tomorrow’s stage is a rolling course with a few climbs, but the only serious hump is the category 2 ascent of the Col des Ares, which comes 27 km into the 211.5 km stage. It should be a pretty easy stage to control, and won’t leave a lot of opportunities for someone to make time on the maillot jaune. In fact, it looks pretty good for Floyd until Tuesday’s Stage 15, when the stage finishes on the legendary switchbacks of L’Alpe d’Huez.

Floyd looked strong today, but so did Menchov. Kloden could be a surprise, if he can muster up some strength for the Alps. But there aren’t a lot of riders in contention at this point who might mount a serious challenge.

Realistically there aren’t a lot of opportunities for someone to assault the yellow jersey. There’s Tuesday’s l’Alpe d’Huez stage. Wednesday is a hard day with a mountaintop finish, and that’s about it. Thursday’s Stage 17 will be a tough day, with 5 categorized climbs, but it’s a downhill finish that’s unlikely to shuffle the overall standings unless the lead is a close one.

Denis Menchov is strong, has the powerful Rabobank team (including last year’s King of the Mountains, Michael Rasmussen, and today’s surprisingly powerful climber, Michael Booogerd), and he’s only 61 seconds behind Landis. Cadel Evans is riding well, conceding only 77 seconds to Landis on the overall, but his team isn’t as powerful. CSC’s Carlo Sastre has a remote chance, sitting just 1:52 behind in the overall and finishing a scant 17 seconds off the pace today. And then there’s T-Mobile’s Andreas Kloden, who may be 2:29 down but has traditionally performed very well in the Alps, and the pink jerseys of T-Mobile have been near the front on every stage.

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From an American perspective it looks good for Floyd, but he’s the only one with a shot. Discovery shows none of the organized precision that’s marked their last seven Tour campaigns, but without Lance to rally around it requires a different kind of strategy and maybe they can’t change the playbook. It doesn’t look as though they have the talent to be serious—Jose Azevedo was their top finisher today, but he’s not a time trialist and his 15th place showing hardly looks threatening. Levi Leipheimer showed some spunk today, but he started the day more than 10 minutes out of contention so unless something miraculous occurs he’s probably out of it. He might try for a stage win, but as far as the big picture’s concerned he doesn’t seem to be in it.

So Floyd and the Phonak squad have to do it. Landis has had a taste of stage race leadership, riding in support of Lance in years past and in successfully defending his lead in this year’s Tour of California. He has the form, and the course doesn’t look as though it holds any surprises.

It’s still an open race, but it’s sure looking like another American victory is possible, even without Lance.

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