Don’t discount the suddenly-back-in-it Angels in the West, even though they remain under .500. But their lack of offense and reliance on many young players likely will make them a division-series loser if they do advance. And it just isn’t a good year to be Toronto or Minnesota. Short of switching to the AL West, their path to the playoffs appears to be blocked barring huge second halves.

The New York Mets clearly are the National League’s best team at this point. But they have major issues at the back of their rotation. They have shown a reluctance to deal away their two top prospects — pitcher Mike Pelfrey and outfielder Lastings Milledge — and rightfully so after the debacle Scott Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano deal made by the previous administration.

But the Mets also must know that with 40-year-old Tom Glavine and always-fragile Pedro Martinez at the top of their rotation, and 35-year-old Billy Wagner as their closer, they are operating in a small window to win a World Series.

And clearly, if they’re going to beat whoever survives what should be brutal AL playoff series, the Mets will have to deal not just for a back-of-the-rotation guy, but somebody who can step into the No. 3 spot. They need another arm that can be as effective as Glavine or Martinez, and bump Steve Trachsel back to the No. 4 spot, where he belongs.

Livan Hernandez, currently nursing a bad knee, is a possible option, but Schmidt would be a better one, and it appears as if the Giants are at least entertaining the idea of dealing him rather than giving him an extension this winter.

Can anybody beat the Mets in the NL playoffs? The Cardinals certainly can’t be discounted, but they also must get their pitching straightened out. Mark Mulder is on the DL with a six-plus ERA, Jason Marquis has 11 wins despite a 5.55 ERA and Jeff Suppan’s ERA is 5.83. When Jeff Weaver is an upgrade, you know you have some problems. The Cardinals also could use a corner outfield bat and/or a second-base upgrade.

Otherwise, it’s going to take an impact trade, or a dramatic reversal of fortune (see, Astros, 2005) for any other NL team to be considered a serious threat to win the pennant. The NL West is at least a four-team race, and arguably the best team on paper — the Los Angeles Dodgers — won’t be getting Eric Gagne back at all this season.

The San Diego Padres, currently on top by two games, can pitch it and catch it — they lead the league in ERA and fielding percentage — but only the Chicago Cubs have scored fewer runs in the NL.

The Dodgers currently are the NL wildcard leader despite a 46-42 record, but six teams are within 3 ½ games, and three more are within seven games. The Astros’ bullpen isn’t the same this season, and their offense is – that is to say, they still don’t score enough runs, and need an impact bat.

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies haven’t played playoff-implication games in September in the last decade or so; for the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s been even longer. The Giants may not have Barry Bonds by then if stories about an impending indictment prove true, and the Arizona Diamondbacks went through a 7-22 tailspin before sweeping the Rockies to end the first half.

No wonder the Atlanta Braves still think they have a shot to get to the playoffs for the 15^th consecutive year despite a 40-49 record at the break.

MORE FROM BASEBALL

Baseball Section Front

Mauer vs. Bronx bullies for AL MVP CTB: Handicapping the Halladay chase Blyleven: Pitching to be had beyond Halladay CTB: Should the Yankees get younger? DeMarco: Red Sox should take measured approach CTB: A prediction — Lackey will sign with Yankees CTB: Indians unlikely to deal Wood this offseason CTB: Mets could be interested in Royals’ Guilllen Complete list of free agents Circling the Bases: Blogging on news, rumors, buzz   Baseball Section Front   Add Baseball headlines to your news reader: