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“The Tiger organization — including me, every player out there — did not expect to have this many wins at the All-Star break. Nobody. If they say they did, they’re crazy. Be realistic … Let me say this: It’s been an almost incredible first half.’’
We couldn’t agree more.
Unrealistic as they may seem, the numbers say this: At 59-29, the Tigers have the majors’ best record. They are on pace for 109 wins, which would be three more than the 1984 Tigers world championship team — arguably the best in franchise history. At the break, they also are better than the 1968 Tigers, who were 56-32 after 88 games, and also went on to win the World Series.
Even if they split their remaining games, the Tigers’ win total will reach 96, a number that has guaranteed playoff entrance in the history of the three-division/wildcard format. They lead the defending World Series champion Chicago White Sox by two games in American League Central, and their lead over the wild-card New York Yankees is eight games.
All this from a team that finished 20 games under .500 last year, and is only three seasons removed from an American League-most-ever 119-loss embarrassment. Winning the World Series? It just still seems like a stretch. And that’s why the forecast here is for a repeat by the White Sox.
In fact, if they make a strong second-half push, not too many people around the game will be surprised. And you can’t hide an offense that is the runaway major-league leader in runs scored, thanks in part to the addition of Jim Thome, a legitimate MVP candidate at this point.
The starting pitching has stumbled a bit with a 4.60 ERA — and in fact, the White Sox staff is only sixth in the league in ERA — but the starters are playoff-proven, leaving only the setup crew in front of closer Bobby Jenks and rookie center fielder Brian Anderson as concerns.
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That would be reminiscent of the bold strikes Williams made last winter, when he dealt for Thome and Javier Vazquez on the heels of winning it all. But remember, the Sox were tied to Ken Griffey Jr. rumors at this point last season, and those never panned out.
It’s hard to picture just one team coming out of the AL East — something that hasn’t happened since 2002 — especially since it will mean one of the game’s two biggest spenders will be staying home in October. But it very well could happen, and right now, the Red Sox have the slight edge.
They came very close to sweeping the White Sox in U.S. Cellular Field over the weekend, extending them 19 innings in the series finale before finally losing 7-6. And after a slip in their World Series title defense last season, they have upgraded both on offense and defense, and possess two notable postseason aces in Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling, the best middle-of-the-lineup duo in David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, and the required dominant closer in Jonathan Papelbon.
Still, they are only eighth in the AL in ERA, and that’s low enough to cast doubt, unless general manager Theo Epstein can come up with more pitching before the trade deadline.
The Yankees will have to wait until August for Hideki Matsui, and likely September for Gary Sheffield, and that isn’t going to make the task of passing the Red Sox any easier. They also need more pitching, and don’t want to deal their best prospect, right-hander Phil Hughes. But some short-term help at the back of the rotation, in middle relief and at a corner-outfield spot is needed, so some prospects likely will have to be sacrificed.
What the Tigers do have is pitching — the best in the majors with a 3.49 ERA and 11 shutouts. They have two rookie 100-mph throwers in Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya, another emerging dominant starter in Jeremy Bonderman, an established ace in Kenny Rogers enjoying a renaissance season, and a No. 4 starter in Nate Robertson with an ERA of only 3.31.
And there is enough depth to entertain the possibility of dealing a Wilfredo Ledezma or Humberto Sanchez for another bat, preferably a left-handed hitting first baseman or left-fielder.
But, Rogers never has been much of a money pitcher, the rest of the staff is untested in the postseason, and just about everybody else they will run up against in the playoffs will have starters with playoff successes behind them.
And while there is enough offense to win a short series against whoever comes out of the West, Detroit’s doesn’t match up to the league’s most-potent attacks in Chicago, Boston, New York and Toronto.
The AL West winner is an unknown at this point, as the Oakland A’s blew a comfortable margin, and continue to underachieve while looking for more offense. They also won’t be getting ace Rich Harden back until some point in August, and they needed him to emerge as an 18-win, Cy Young candidate to have a legit shot at advancing in the postseason.
SportsTalk: Big-spending teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers are struggling. Which teams are in danger of missing the playoffs? We break it down.
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