Mets look like serious title contenders
Beltran has rebounded, pitching is strong and roster is deep
Ronald Martinez / Getty Images fileAfter a mediocre 2005 season, Carlos Beltran has rebounded nicely, and is on pace for 43 home runs and 126 RBIs.
Q: Who do you think will win the AL East, with the Red Sox, Yankees and now the competing Blue Jays?
— Caleb Trotter, Ontario, Canada
A: I wrote a few weeks back about the Blue Jays, and how they have been able to stay in the AL East race despite a handful of unexpected and negative occurrences, including the demotion of Russ Adams (who has returned from the minors and flip-flopped positions with Aaron Hill), the struggles of a bullpen that was surprisingly strong last season, and injuries to starting pitchers A.J. Burnett and Gustavo Chacin. Burnett is back, and manager John Gibbons has said that if Burnett returns to his usual form, the Jays will stay in the race — and I agree.
In the spring, I picked it this way — New York, Toronto, Boston. But serious injuries to Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield definitely have knocked the Yankees down a notch offensively. With both out for extended periods, that will cost New York a few victories along the way. Their bullpen also has issues, and I fully expect them to make deals for an outfielder — Jacque Jones? Reggie Sanders? — and a setup man or two.
The Red Sox have come together better than I expected after making so many changes in the off-season. But I’m still not crazy about their pitching staff, and I’m not sure it will hold up without some additions before the trade deadline. They need at least one more starting pitcher, as well as setup help for Jonathan Papelbon.
Who’s going to win the division? I’ll stick with my picks for now, but let’s see which team is able to help itself most in the trade market. That could make a big difference, as we saw last season, when the Yankees got huge second-half boosts from Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon.
Q: With the Minnesota Twins struggling around .500, would it not be wise for them to try to unload Brad Radke, Shannon Stewart and Torii Hunter for prospects and create salary room for 2007?
— Joe Barron, Lackawaxen, Pa.
A: The Twins have been playing very well of late, running off an eight-game winning streak to get back to the .500 mark through Thursday, so I don’t think they’re ready to give up on this season just yet. That said, we’re already seeing roster movement that is signaling an out-with-the-old, in-with-the-young makeover.
Veteran Juan Castro was dealt back to Cincinnati and Jason Bartlett returned from Triple-A to take over the regular shortstop duties. Third baseman Tony Batista, a winter free-agent signee, was released after hitting just .236 and proving to be a defensive liability. Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser have stepped into the rotation, and Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are settling in as every-day corner outfielders.
As for the players you mentioned, Stewart is expected to come off the disabled list around July 1, and no doubt will be showcased for a potential deal, as he won’t be re-signed this winter. The same goes for Rondell White, who has been a big disappointment at a designated hitter. Radke has talked about retiring after this season, and has spent his entire 12-year career with the Twins. His salary ($9 million) is prohibitive, and he hasn’t pitched well this season (5-7, 5.84 ERA) — not a good combination for a deal to be made. But he has pitched better of late, and if he strings together a few wins, he could become attractive enough for a contender to take a shot at him. Kyle Lohse, ineffective and at odds with management, also will be dealt.
Hunter’s situation is very interesting. Now that funding for a new stadium finally has been approved, the Twins should be in better position financially to pick up his $12-million option for 2007. Joe Mauer has replaced Hunter as the Twins’ franchise player, but Hunter nonetheless is a very important piece of the puzzle. I think it will take a package of prospects too good to refuse for the Twins to deal Hunter, but it’s not as if they are forced to do so because of payroll limitations.
Q: Do the Texas Rangers have enough pitching to enable them to stay in the AL West race and finish above .500? What impact do the heat and the open stadium have on their ability to attract and retain the talent that will take them to a World Series?
— Don F., Brentwood, Calif.
A: I don’t think the Rangers are going to win the AL West — I’m sticking with my pre-season pick of the Oakland A’s — but I do think the Rangers will finish above .500. I like the A’s pitching one-through-11 better than pretty much any staff in baseball. They are in first place now despite big chunks of time missed by ace Rich Harden, who is expected back after the All-Star break, and top setup man Justin Duchscherer, who will come off the disabled list this weekend. They also have a very deep set of position players, and in effect have about 12-13 regular players at manager Ken Macha’s disposal.
The Rangers have upgraded their starting pitching by acquiring Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla and John Koronka, and their bullpen is fifth in the league in ERA, reminiscent of the outstanding 2004 relief corps. And of course, they can put runs on the board. But I see them finishing in the 85-win range.
The summer heat in Arlington long has been an issue, and I experienced it first-hand while covering the team for seven years in the late 1980s-early 1990s. One year, they even wore shorts during batting practice, which always is conducted during the hottest time of the day, late-afternoon. Two-three months of 90-degree/90 percent humidity weather does wear down players — no doubt about it.
But a bigger factor than the weather is the offensive tendencies of Ameriquest Field. The field is baked hard by the sun, a jet stream blows out to right-center field, and the right-field dimensions are pretty cozy for left-handed power hitters. All of which makes for one of the game’s best offensive parks — which of course makes free-agent pitchers shy away. Millwood is an exception, not the rule. And as we saw in the Chan Ho Park signing, the Rangers have made mistakes overpaying for free-agent pitchers. It always comes down to pitching, and the Rangers rarely have had staffs that were on par with other elite staffs in the American League.
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