Adherents to the light schedule theory also can be expected to point out that the last horse to win the Derby off a layoff of five weeks or more — Needles in 1956 — was beaten in the Preakness. That’s true, but he ran well to be beaten by only 1¾ lengths by Calumet Farms’ Fabius and he rebounded three weeks later to win the Belmont Stakes — hardly compelling evidence that the quick return dampened his performance.

The third point being waved about by the no-on-Barbaro camp is to me the most compelling.

Both Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint did have all sorts of trouble in Louisville.

The former was caught about 5 lengths wide around the first turn, courtesy of his start from the 18 hole in the starting gate, forced to “steady” — or break stride — twice on the backstretch and then was floated nine wide turning for home.

Despite losing so much ground, he closed stoutly and was actually gaining on Barbaro in the stretch even though he lost by 9½ lengths.

Sweetnorthernsaint, meanwhile, got away a step slow at the break and was far back in the early stages rather than near the front where everyone expected him to be. But rather than quit, he steadily picked off horses and briefly threatened for the lead at the top of the stretch before fading late.

While either of these horses could beat Barbaro, I’m going to rely again on my deceitful eyes, which told me on Derby day that I had just seen a horse take a giant stride toward greatness.

Since I’m backing Barbaro, betting the Preakness is going to be a challenge, since he’s likely to go off at unappetizing odds of 3-to-5 or so, which means you’ll only get back $3.20 for every $2 wagered.

For that reason, I’m going to focus on a single exacta to try and wring some value out of the race.

Slide show   Week in Sports Pictures Flying on the hardwood, racing on the rink, getting physical on the gridiron, and much more. more photos

Even though I was impressed by Sweetnorthernsaint’s fighting spirit, I’m going to take a stand against him based on the assumption that he’s unlikely to be able to get his preferred spot on the lead, with the speedy Like Now starting from the rail and the equally fast Brother Derek also drawn inside. And I’m not persuaded that he’ll be able to get by Brother Derek if he tries to stalk and pounce.

I’ll play a $20 exacta box with Barbaro and Brother Derek, so I’ll win no matter what if they finish first and second.

I’ll also play a $1 trifecta using a couple long shots — Like Now, Diabolical and Hemingway’s Key — underneath that pair. That ticket will look like this — Barbaro and Brother Derek/Barbaro and Brother Derek/Like Now, Diabolical, Hemingway’s Key — and will cost $6.

Total investment: $46.

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