Barbaro

Morning line odds: Even
Post position:6
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 6 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $2,302,200
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Trainer: Michael Matz
Owner: Lael Stables
Pedigree: Dynaformer/La Ville Rouge (Carson City)
Key facts: Figures to be a very short price off his dominating 6 1/2-length victory in the Kentucky Derby. He got the perfect trip that day, as many of his rivals were getting their fenders bent in rush-hour traffic, but the ease with which he won is difficult to get over. Bet against him at your own risk, but you’ll be well rewarded if you’re willing to buck the crowd.

Bernardini

Morning line odds: 8-1
Post position: 8
Lifetime starts: 3
Record: 2 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $110,480
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Thomas Albertrani
Owner: Darley Stable
Pedigree: A.P. Indy/Cara Rafaela (Quiet American)
Key facts: With just three starts under his girth, colt is lightly seasoned for a Triple Crown race. But you have to like the way he improved once he was stretched out to longer route races, and he earned a decent Beyer Speed Figure of 104 in winning the Wither Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct on April 29, even though his rider lost his whip in the stretch.

Brother Derek

Morning line odds: 3-1
Post position: 5
Lifetime starts: 9
Record: 6 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $1,162,080
Jockey: Alex Solis
Trainer: Dan Hendricks
Owner: Cecil N. Peacock
Pedigree: Benchmark/Miss Soft Sell (Siyah Kalem)
Key facts: Lots to like about this Cal-bred colt, beginning with his very impressive race in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished fourth despite being caught very wide on both turns and steadying twice. His natural speed will give veteran rider options as race unfolds and his odds will be decent, since he finished 9 1/2 lengths behind Barbaro in Louisville. If there’s an upsetter in the field, he’s probably the one.

Diabolical

Morning line odds: 30-1
Post position: 9
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 2 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $171,930
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Trainer: Steve Klesaris
Owner: Puglisi Stables and Steve Klesaris
Pedigree: Artax/Bonnie Byerly (Dayjur)
Key facts: Has triumphed only in a maiden race and in a first-level allowance race at Delaware Park in his most recent start. He hasn't been embarrassed when he's tried stakes company, though, finishing second to Barbaro last year in the Laurel Futurity -- a stakes race for 2-year-olds run on the turf – and 2 3/4 lengths behind Kentucky Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat on the dirt at Belmont.

Greeley’s Legacy

Morning line odds: 20-1
Post position: 4
Lifetime starts: 11
Record: 2 wins, 0 seconds, 2 thirds
Earnings: $97,691
Jockey: TBD
Trainer: George Weaver
Owner: Donald Flanagan
Pedigree: Mr. Greeley/Deceit Princess (Vice Regent)
Key facts: Finished a close-up fourth behind Like Now, Keyed Entry and Sweetnorthernsaint in the Gotham Stakes (G3), but his two subsequent races against stakes company – the Wood Memorial and the Lexington Stakes – weren't so good. Wide trip in the latter and wet track in the former offer some hope a form reversal could be in the offing.

Hemingway’s Key

Morning line odds: 30-1
Post position: 3
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 2 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $49,498
Jockey: Jeremy Rose
Trainer: Nick Zito
Owner: Kinsman Stable
Pedigree: Notebook/Whirl’s Girl (Island Whirl)
Key facts: Hard to get too excited about a colt that has been trounced in all four starts this year. On positive side, he encountered trouble in his last two races and Hall of Fame trainer is trying to shake things up by changing equipment – blinkers off -- and switching to rider who won last year’s Preakness with Afleet Alex. Also, horse’s come-from-behind running style may play well in speed-laden field.

Like Now

Morning line odds: 12-1
Post position: 1
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 4 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $278,932
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: John Dillon
Pedigree: Jules/Can’t Bluff Me (Pine Bluff)
Key facts: Gelding only has one way of going, and that’s to go to the front and try to stay there. But with plenty of speed signed up for the Preakness, he’s not likely to get any breathers in the early running. Trainer wisely passed the Derby to give him more time to get ready for his toughest assignment to date, though, and he did beat Sweetnorthernsaint in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct.

Platinum Couple

Morning line odds: 50-1
Post position: 2
Lifetime starts: 9
Record: 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
Earnings: $125,457
Jockey: TBD
Trainer: Joseph Lostritto
Owner: Team Tristar Stable
Pedigree: Tale of the Cat/Ingot’s Dance Away (Gate Dancer)
Key facts: New York-bred colt won the restricted $75,000 Damon Runyon Stakes at Aqueduct in December, but has been well beaten in his three stakes tries since then. His off-the-pace running style is a plus, but he appears to be overmatched in here.

Sweetnorthern -saint

Morning line odds: 4-1
Post position: 7
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 3 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $377,000
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Michael Trombetta
Owner: Joseph J. Balsamo and Ted Theos
Pedigree: Sweetsouthernsaint/Ice Beauty (Waquoit)
Key facts: Derby favorite ran a much better race than his seventh-place finish would suggest. He broke a half step slow and immediately found himself at the back of the pack, then slowly worked his way into contention before tiring late. Don’t think anyone was going to beat Barbaro that day, but gelding could have been much closer in Louisville and shouldn’t be ruled out.

Track

The Preakness is a 1 3/16th- mile race – 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby -- for 3-year-olds run at Baltimore’s historic Pimlico Race Course, also known as Old Hilltop. The race is contested over a mile dirt track that is 70 feet wide -- narrower than most racetracks – and generally favors speed. The race begins at the top of the stretch, which gives jockeys time to move their mounts in to save ground before the first turn. The early fractions of the Preakness are usually quick, but front-runners and stalkers who race close to the pace have a better chance here than they do in the Kentucky Derby.

Factors

There is no limit on the factors that can be considered in handicapping a race — some experts even try to compensate for the wind when evaluating a previous performance by a horse. But for today, let's confine ourselves to six of the most important considerations.

Click on factors at left to learn more.

Speed and pace

A handicapper who can correctly predict how a race will be run has a much better chance of winning than the horseplayer with no idea which horses will go to the front, which will challenge the leaders turning for home and which will attempt to run down the leaders in the final strides.
The reason, as handicapping pioneer Huey Mahl put it, is that pace makes the race.

The basic theory of pace handicapping is this: The faster a horse runs at the beginning of a race, the less energy it will have for the stretch run. As a general rule, a race in which three or more horses battle for the lead will result in a faster-than-average early pace and set the stage for a come-from-behind horse to win. Conversely, a race in which a lone horse is allowed to set a comfortable pace tends to favor the front-runner or horses that can stay within a length or two of the lead.

The Preakness has a reputation as a race that can be won on the front end, despite the testing 1 3/16th-mile distance. However, although the race has been won 26 times by a horse that led from gate to wire (or about 20 percent of the time), only two horses have managed the feat in the past 22 years.

This year’s horse has only one need-to-lead horse – Like Now – but Barbaro, Bernardini, Brother Derek, Diabolical and Sweetnorthernsaint all like to be in the mix early and a faster than average early pace – 1:10 4/5 for 6 furlongs for the last 20 runnings – seems likely. Give a plus in this category to the off-the-pace runners – Greeley’s Legacy, Hemingway’s Key and Platinum Couple – and a neutral rating to Barbaro and Brother Derek, all of whom have demonstrated the ability to rate and finish in their recent races.

Class

When racetrackers talk about a horse’s class, they are talking about a combination of natural ability, consistency and heart. Handicappers have tried different approaches to quantify it, such as average earnings per start or the number of victories in Grade I stakes races, which draw the very best horses.

No matter how you define it, though, history says it is advisable in the Triple Crown races to favor horses who faced top competition as 2-year-olds, running well in at least one graded stakes, and who have returned to run credibly in similar situations at 3.

Give a plus in this category to Brother Derek -- the only true qualifier -- and the slightest deductions to Barbaro, who missed qualifying by one day.

Pedigree

Pedigree analysis has lost a lot of its luster in recent two years, when several horses whose bloodlines said they would never last 1 1/4 miles nevertheless captured the Derby.

But given the performance of the "dosage" index and "center of distribution" model over previous decades, it’s probably wise not to dismiss this line of inquiry just yet.

This is why it pays to have at least a passing acquaintance with such arcane terms as "dosage" and "dual qualifier."

-- Dosage has proven an accurate yardstick for the Kentucky Derby, though the evidence is less compelling for the Preakness. Doesn’t much matter as all the Preakness starters have a dosage index of under 4.00.

-- With everyone getting a passing grade on dosage, we’ll use Lee Tomlinson’s stamina-measuring endurance ratings from the Daily Racing Form as a tie-breaker, giving negatives to horses that are rated less than 370 and have not shown they can handle the marathon distances: Greeley’s Legacy, Hemingway’s Key, Like Now and Platinum Couple.

Barbaro would have been rated suspect in this category if he hadn’t proven his ability to go 1 1/4 miles in Louisville. Instead, give him a plus as well.

Form

Form -- shorthand for the way a horse has run in its most recent races -- looks deceptively simple to evaluate, but this factor contains numerous traps for the handicapper.

Although it's better to enter a big race off several strong efforts, horses are not machines and there is no guarantee that a contestant's last race will be repeated on race day.

Likewise, horses that have run poorly in their recent races can suddenly rediscover that winning formula (Remember 1991 winner Hansel, who paid more than $20 in the Preakness after finishing 10th in the Kentucky Derby as the 5-2 favorite?). And there's always the dangerous improving horse, who can turn in the race of a lifetime when you least suspect it.

Nonetheless, horses who enter the Preakness off several strong efforts (finishing within 2 lengths of the winner) in recent races receive high marks in this category: Barbaro, Bernardino, Diabolical and Like Now.

Slightly downgrade horses with one good race in their last two starts -- Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint. – since both had brutal trips in the Derby.

Jockey

The Preakness points a white-hot spotlight on riders, and it can be dazzling to those who never have stood in its glare before. Being tongue-tied in interviews is one thing, but if a rider's nervousness and excitement makes even the slightest impact on his or her judgment, the results on the racetrack are likely to be disappointing.

We’ll give the strongest push to those horses with riders that have won at least one Preakness, since they’ll also have the advantage of knowing the track: Brother Derek (Alex Solis, 1986), Hemingway’s Key (Jeremy Rose) and Sweetnorthernsaint (Kent Desormeaux).

Give the slightest of deductions to Derby winner Barbaro (Edgar Prado), whose rider has won both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, and Diabolical, by virtue of having Maryland kingpin Ramon Dominguez in the irons.

Negative marks to the rest of the field.

Trainer

Unlike the jockeys, who will make any mistakes in the blink of an eye, trainers make their errors – if any – in the weeks before the race.
Some fine horsemen and horsewomen have been thrown off their game by the unaccustomed scrutiny they face once it becomes clear that there’s a legitimate Derby prospect in the barn. Suddenly, instead of the quiet thudding of hoofbeats, the trainer is facing a phalanx of microphones and fielding endless questions about everything from choice of horseshoes to whether that last workout wasn’t just a tad bit slow.

The bottom line is that some trainers will become overly cautious in their preparations, overlooking an important detail or forgetting to pass a key piece of information to an exercise rider. The result may not be disastrous, but even the slightest misstep can be enough to get your horse beat.

Only one trainer with a horse in this year’s race has won the Preakness, Nick Zito (Hemingway’s Key).
Give a slightly less enthusiastic push to trainer Michael Matz (Barbaro) for his win in the Kentucky Derby.
All others draw a negative in this category.