Q. Tony, it’s early in the season, but I’m surprised how little I’ve heard about the NL Central’s dominance. With five teams over .500, and no team in the NL with a winning record against the division, even with Pittsburgh with the second-worst record in the NL, it seems this division might rival the AL East as a powerhouse. Any impressions of the division’s performance?
— Patrick Murphy, Indianapolis

A. The surprise clearly has been the Cincinnati Reds, who have stayed ahead of St. Louis and Houston despite playing most of April without Ken Griffey Jr. That has given new general manager Wayne Krivsky the early lead in the executive of the year race for acquiring Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips and David Ross. Can the Reds stay in contention? Arroyo and Aaron Harang offer some hope at the top of the rotation, and the bullpen has been better than expected. But to project a 90-plus-win season might be a stretch at this point. But five NL Central teams staying above .500 is a real legitimate possibility, and no other division will be able to make that claim. The Cardinals may not win 100 again, but will come close, and the Astros were dramatically better than in April of 2005, and could add Roger Clemens. You have to like the Brewers’ rotation and young position players, and they should get their first winning season since 1992. The Cubs are feeling the effects of losing Derrek Lee, on top of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Wade Miller, but are hanging around. It will be interesting to watch their season unfold once those four players are back. Poor Pittsburgh. It’s going to be tough for them to make up much ground.

Q. Frank Thomas appears to be getting healthy. Where do you think he will ultimately end up in the record books if he maintains his health, say playing 140 games each season for the remainder of his career?
— Mike, Tacoma, Wash.

A. Big Frank didn’t have a very productive April, but you’re right, Mike, at least he has been able to stay in the lineup. In fact, he started all but three of the A’s first 23 games. But needless to say, he’s going to have to do more than hit .190 with seven extra-base hits and 11 RBI in 79 at-bats, and you have to figure those numbers will go up as he regains his timing. Remember, Thomas missed most of last season, when he totaled only 79 at-bats in 22 games, and has been healthy enough to get into only 56 games in the last two seasons, and 130 games in the last three seasons. What can we expect from him over the rest of his career, health permitting? I have to believe he will be just a .250-260 hitter, but will be capable of 30 homers and 80-90 RBI in 120 or so games for a couple more seasons. He needs 47 homers to reach 500, so that should be attainable, his hit total (currently 2,153) could approach 2,400-2,500, but his career average (.306) could dip below .300. We’ll see if that ultimately is Cooperstown-worthy, but Big Frank’s Hall case will rest primarily on his dominance from 1991-2000, when he hit .300 or better nine times, drove in 100 or more runs nine times, hit 40 or more homers four times and won two MVP awards.

Q. The Red Sox offense seems to be faltering with runners in scoring position. It also seems as if Terry Francona is not the best manager when it comes to tactical decisions. I know he comes at a bargain basement price, but do you think he will make it through the season?
— Roy Peck, Papillion, Neb.

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A. I don’t think Francona is going anywhere, Roy. He just signed a two-year extension with a big raise built in, which will take him to $1.65 million in 2007 and $1.75 million in 2008 plus bonuses for getting to the playoffs and winning post-season series. I’m not sure what tactical decisions you are referring to, but to me, Francona’s strength lies in his handling of his players in the clubhouse – and these days, that can be just as important as in-game decision making. That’s especially true with the Red Sox, who aren’t built for a lot of offensive strategy, anyway. While they are more pitching-and-defense oriented than in recent years, they still rely on high on-base percentages and the slugging of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, rather than base-stealing, bunting and advancing runners.

Q. Is there a chance Seattle will change closers in the near future and move away from Eddie Guardado? He has been issuing walks like he is getting a commission for each one.
— Joe, Fayetteville, N.C.

A. ‘Everyday Eddie’ has been shaky to say the least through his first 10 appearances (0-2, 8.38 ERA, three blown saves), and Mariners manager Mike Hargrove says he no longer will automatically turn to Guardado in save situations for the time being. Right-handers Rafael Soriano and J.J. Putz (who has two saves) are in position to replace Guardado, and as the Mariners inevitably fall out of the AL West race, I think you will see Guardado traded to a contender, who likely will use him in a setup role or as a left-handed specialist. However, he does have a limited no-trade clause that will allow him to block deals to Boston and the two New York teams. Maybe the National League would be a good spot for him, considering AL hitters have seen him for his entire 14-year career.

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