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Stay in school? No way after Leinart's fall

Why would any college star eligible to enter NFL draft delay doing so now?

Leinart after being selected as 10th overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft in New York
Shannon Stapleton / Reuters
If Matt Leinart had left for the NFL after his junior season, he likely would've been the No. 1 overall pick last year. Instead, he stayed in school, nearly won a third national championship ... and probably will make around $13 million less on his first pro contract after falling to No. 10 in this year's draft.
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COMMENTARY
By Joey Johnston
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 12:46 p.m. ET May 1, 2006

Joey Johnston
He got one more year as a college kid. He hung out with Hollywood buddies. He made another run (unsuccessfully) at the Heisman Trophy and national championship. He learned the art of ballroom dancing.

One more thing. Matt Leinart’s decision to return for his senior season at USC may have cost him about $13 million.

Oh, that.

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It’s not a particularly effective commercial for the “stay in school’’ movement. Leinart, of course, was classy to the end, putting up a brave front after lasting until the 10th overall selection in Saturday’s NFL draft. And he may yet have the last laugh.

He’s headed to Coach Denny Green’s Arizona Cardinals. His receivers are Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The backfield includes free-agent import Edgerrin James. The defense is decent. The Cardinals are opening a new stadium. He’s in a terrific warm-weather city, instead of having to deal with driving snow.

Even Leinart won’t throw a pity party, saying far worse things can happen in life.

Still …

It’s a cautionary tale for any elite athlete with NFL potential. To maximize your earning potential, strike quickly. Timing is everything.

In early 2005, Leinart’s Trojans had just thrashed Oklahoma 55-19 at the Orange Bowl. Leinart, with five touchdown passes, was almost certainly headed to the San Francisco 49ers with the No. 1 overall pick.

But he stayed at USC. A noble notion. A decision that endeared him to Trojan fans forever.

Instead, Utah’s Alex Smith entered the draft early, went to the 49ers and received a $42-million contract. Had Smith returned for his senior season, he probably would’ve been the fourth-highest-picked quarterback.

Timing.

You could make a compelling argument that Texas quarterback Vince Young could have benefited from a senior season. Really? He was picked third overall by the Tennessee Titans. How could things get better? He won a national championship. He never could have a more impressive individual performance than his night at the Rose Bowl.

Young’s return to Texas might have HURT his NFL stock. Now Tennessee has Young and LenDale White in what might be the all-time boom-or-bust draft.

Timing.

Saturday’s draft became a referendum on how NFL potential always overrides college production.

There was Leinart (37-2 as a USC starter) going 10th overall. He was immediately followed at No. 11 by Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler (11-34 career record). Admittedly, that was with a generally outmanned program in the SEC. But still … 37-2?

Timing.

The NFL draft has become an exercise in how familiarity often breeds contempt. Everything is so magnified. With the amount of money at stake, first-round errors are compounded. So elite players are poked, prodded, dissected and examined. If you look long enough, you’re bound to come up with some negatives (or reasons NOT to pick a player).

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That may have happened to Leinart.

Subpar arm strength? You heard those whispers. Hmmm. Does anybody remember Leinart’s fourth-and-9 pass at Notre Dame? How many players can make THAT throw?

Suddenly, Leinart’s methodical precision became a plodding pocket presence. Suddenly, proven winning efforts took a back seat to a size-and-speed exhibition at the NFL combine.

When Leinart finished his junior season with a flourish, some told him to chase the NFL dollars. There was nothing more to prove in college. Turns out, that was a correct assessment.

The problem is there’s too much exposure, too much analysis and too much paralysis. Too much importance is given to a player’s vital statistics and not enough homage is paid to his ability to perform on the football field.

From the moment bowl games begin in December, through the Senior Bowl, through the NFL combine, through the individual workouts, it’s an assault on the senses. With the premium on pro-style quarterbacks, how could Leinart slip past the Titans (OK, there was an organizational squabble), Jets, Raiders and Lions, each of whom need a quarterback?

I don’t get it.

Stay in school?

At your own peril.

It only hurts your NFL stock.


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