Roush Racing's history at restrictor-plate tracks is not a good one, but of the five Roush drivers I can see Matt Kenseth making a bid to win on Sunday.

I felt Kenseth had a very good car at Daytona, where he led for 28 laps, and after starting 11th he came home 15th after a run-in with Stewart.

Two years ago Kevin Harvick drove to finishes of second and third at Talladega, and last year he also had a pair of top-10 results in Alabama. Last spring he qualified on the pole, led for 12 laps, and came home in 12th place, and last fall he came from way back, starting 42nd and crossing the checkers 10th.

Harvick also has momentum since he swept the Busch Series and Nextel Cup Series events last week at Phoenix. Given his past performances at Talladega, and his recent success, I think Harvick has to be included among those drivers who should be top contenders on Sunday.  

My darkhorse is Martin Truex Jr., a Cup rookie and a teammate of Junior's at DEI.  

Keys to success at Talladega
In an effort to address the dangerous but common tactic of bump drafting at restrictor-plate tracks, NASCAR is mandating that each team use “softer bumpers” at Talladega this weekend. The objective is to make the bump-drafting minimal.

Basically what NASCAR has done is altered the front bumper configuration for Cup cars at restrictor-plate races, making it less rigid and susceptible to caving in if the art of bump-drafting is aggressively attempted. NASCAR is trying something so we'll see how it works out.

Talladega is big, wide and fast, a track that places a premium on a quality car. It has a lot of grip, and cars run in large packs. That makes it mentally draining on the drivers, who need to focus on all that is going on around them so they can try and stay out of big wrecks.

Getting caught up in the "Big One" is the fear of all drivers, and the best way for a driver to lessen the odds of being involved in such a multi-car pileup is to try and run up front all day.

While trying their best to keep their cars from getting damaged, the drivers are also trying to figure out when it's best to make their moves, so it's like a game of mental chess. But luck plays a big role at this track, more so than at any other track on the Nextel Cup circuit.

Drivers must be careful not to speed on pit row after coming in from running at about 190 mph on the track. Last year NASCAR ended its policy of checking pit-row speeds with stop watches, and began using electronic devices to do so.

And on pit stops we will see a lot of two-tire changes because the cars don't want to give up track position, and at Talladega they have smaller fuel cells (13 gallons instead of 22).

But if a driver locks up his brakes on a pit stop, he then has to take four tires, and risks losing running in the draft, which could cause him to lose three to four miles per hour in overall speed.

The racing will intensify over the final 20 laps or so and that's when some of the more desperate moves are made -- moves that often result in wrecks. Getting through clean in the late stages of the race is one of the biggest challenges of winning at Talladega.

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